What industries will shape the next 20-30 years?

[riverwed070707]

I know we're all anxiously awaiting Singuy's next pick after FIVRR took off and coming down off the exciting market upset by Reddit users. Curious if there are any investable industries and/or companies you track that you think will play a role in the next generation or cause a major shift in how we work and live? Example: Ever since Andrew Yang talked about truck drivers going away as autonomous trucks are developed as a compelling reason for why UBI is needed, I've been tracking not only driverless truck technology/manufacturing, but also alternative fuel sources and thinking through what other industries that will impact.

I also think data mining and how we use data is evolving dramatically but I don't have enough of an understanding of it to even really research the companies driving it. Another interesting one to play out will be the future of energy, utility scale battery technology and who will eventually take the lead on that. Its a topic Warren has been looking at for years already and still no clear leaders have emerged.

What other major advancements do you think we will see in our lifetimes? What sources do you use to keep up on these topics?

[disneysteve]

We all wish we had that crystal ball. Much of what drives the market today was nearly unimaginable 20-30 years ago, or even 15 or 10 in some cases. Look at a company like Fiver. They were founded in 2010, just 11 years ago.

Then you've got the issue that the companies that create the market often end up not being the ones that succeed and dominate it. I clearly remember using pre-Google search engines like AltaVista. That was the hot thing back then, and it predates Google by a few years.

The pandemic has accelerated all sorts of societal and technological changes, advancing some things by a decade or more by many estimates. If you would have told me 2 years ago that financial professionals would be migrating out of NYC and tech folks would be leaving northern CA, I wouldn't have believed you. A couple of years from now, places like Austin and Atlanta are going to be the hot places to be.

I think self-driving vehicles are certainly an emerging technology. We may see those in common use in our lifetimes. Electric vehicles are likely going to continue to grow their market share. I doubt GM will meet their goal of being all electric by 2035 but I'm sure e-vehicles will be much more common by then and not just the novelty they are today.

Otherwise, who knows? I wish I did so I could get in at the bottom. If you find out, let me know.

[bjl584]

That's hard to answer. I'm sitting here staring at my smart phone. Just over 10 years ago those didn't even exist. Look at all of the innovation and change that those have given rise to.

[Singuy]

1. Seems like people in the know like Elon(in which their Tesla RNA synthesizer creates mRNA vaccine for Curevac) is very bullish on MRNA. He said this is the future of medicine as it's like a programable software that can cure diseases. We have seen that mRNA is wildly more effective at preventing Covid vs conventional vaccine developed by J&J. So Moderna, CureVac, and Pfizer after the Covid vaccine pull back are good companies to look into. Of if you are scared just buy into ARK's genomics ETF.

2. Future of transportation/energy/autonomous driving are all covered under Tesla. So I don't go out of my way to look for others since this company has the world's best engineers and material scientists working with a very eager CEO that pushes boundaries when it comes to time frame. Based on Tesla's culture, I am less concerned about competition and more concerned if the competition can keep up before going under. So investing into anything else beside Tesla increases unnecessary risk when it's much harder to spot the distant second.

3. AI has been proven to be pretty useful to generate alpha using lots of data, so any company that leverages AI to accelerate tasks/provide a service is probably something to look into. Palantir is a software company as an example.

[corn18]

3D manufacturing

[srblanco7]

In no particular order -
Electric & self-driving vehicles
Artificial intelligence
Renewable energy & green infrastructure
Aquaculture systems

[riverwed070707]

2. Future of transportation/energy/autonomous driving are all covered under Tesla. So I don't go out of my way to look for others since this company has the world's best engineers and material scientists working with a very eager CEO that pushes boundaries when it comes to time frame. Based on Tesla's culture, I am less concerned about competition and more concerned if the competition can keep up before going under. So investing into anything else beside Tesla increases unnecessary risk when it's much harder to spot the distant second.

Agree with you on Tesla, that feels imminent. What I get interested in digging out are the ripples it will cause and how it will impact fuel, jobs, interstate businesses, etc and also how their battery technology may drive developments in other areas. I also don't know a lot about them but the flying car industry is fun to watch as well. Something humans have been envisioning as part of the future for decades and we may actually see them become a reality

[riverwed070707]

In no particular order -
Electric & self-driving vehicles
Artificial intelligence
Renewable energy & green infrastructure
Aquaculture systems

Aquaculture in what context?

[ua_guy]

Healthcare has to be a big one. Gen X'ers are surpassing middle age and now outnumber Boomers as their population is in decline. The Millennial generation, the oldest of which are just cracking their 40's are a HUGE population.

Pharma, software, health systems, hardware manufacturers. Some real opportunities if healthcare becomes single-payer. Also if it doesn't.

Green energy. Like it or not, it's the future.

[disneysteve]

Aquaculture in what context?

I'm curious too. I know fish farming is already a big business but I have no idea what their growth prospects look like.

[disneysteve]

Healthcare has to be a big one.

For sure. And that's not really a new thing either. There's a reason why Vanguard's healthcare fund has been one of the top performing mutual funds for the past couple of decades.

[Singuy]

For sure. And that's not really a new thing either. There's a reason why Vanguard's healthcare fund has been one of the top performing mutual funds for the past couple of decades.

Kind of bearish.

Healthcare profits look to be trashed after decades of extorting money from the public while not providing better care. We are on the cusp of dramatically reducing healthcare cost via strengthen government options and having tech curing problems vs just managing diseases. Distruption is coming, all looking to reduce revenue of the status quo.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

we work idea. I am not sure about we work but i think cosharing workspace.

[srblanco7]

Aquaculture in what context?

Was thinking of recirculated aquaculture systems (fish farms) as being an area for continued investment/growth. World population projected to exceed 10 billion by the end of this century and we're already overfishing the world's oceans as well as continued impact of climate change and ocean acidification.

[Fishindude77]

Was thinking of recirculated aquaculture systems (fish farms) as being an area for continued investment/growth. World population projected to exceed 10 billion by the end of this century and we're already overfishing the world's oceans as well as continued impact of climate change and ocean acidification.

Seems like this makes a pretty good argument for industries that provide "birth control" products being a pretty good bet.