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When Someone Recommends A Stock

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  • When Someone Recommends A Stock

    I have been getting a lot of "should I buy this stock? I hear it's a good stock because X, Y, Z" lately. My answer has always been pretty much NO. When reviewing their monthly chart, I always see a 20-30% run up from these "picks". People need to fight FOMO and really need to grow a pair dip buying. Never once did someone mentioned a pick where the stock price has been going down, or flatlined in the near term.

    So PSA, stop chasing gains. Seriously...this is why you lose money. You don't understand why a stock has gone up, all you understand is what if the stock goes up higher without you. This is how you buy high, and when you know nothing about the company or it's valuation as it drops, you fear you were lied to so you sell.

    Try this instead.

    Pick a growth company with low market cap that is flat line/going down the last few months. Study this company and the reasons why it's a "dead" stock. Once you have done enough research and you still want to put your money into this stock, then it means you have conviction. This is how you buy at the bottom which leads to making some real money.

  • #2
    That’s all very nice ... but what stock should I buy now?
    Steve

    * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
    * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
    * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

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    • #3
      Originally posted by disneysteve View Post
      That’s all very nice ... but what stock should I buy now?
      That sums up the common attitude towards stock picking pretty well.
      james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
      202.468.6043

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      • #4
        I invest in hundreds of companies each month, in the form of index funds.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by rennigade View Post
          I invest in hundreds of companies each month, in the form of index funds.
          Index funds give you diversification and market performance...but you'll never do better, or worse than the market. Index fund investors need to be okay with that.
          james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
          202.468.6043

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          • #6
            Originally posted by james.hendrickson View Post

            Index funds give you diversification and market performance...but you'll never do better, or worse than the market. Index fund investors need to be okay with that.
            I'm definitely okay with never doing worse than the market.
            Steve

            * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
            * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
            * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by james.hendrickson View Post

              Index funds give you diversification and market performance...but you'll never do better, or worse than the market. Index fund investors need to be okay with that.
              Although true, you are guaranteed to outperform your alternate-self if you were to be frugal and invest heavily at a younger age than at an older age.

              Funny thing, I did an equation in which the prepaid college tuition I paid for my daughter of 23k would be 3.5million dollars if I just stick it in the S&P500 between her age of 2yo-65yo. I wonder if she can out earn 3.5 million dollars after she comes out of school to 65.

              Assuming she graduates at 22 year old, she'll have to make 82k/year to out earn 3.5 million by the time she's 65.

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              • #8
                Originally posted by Singuy View Post

                Although true, you are guaranteed to outperform your alternate-self if you were to be frugal and invest heavily at a younger age than at an older age.

                Funny thing, I did an equation in which the prepaid college tuition I paid for my daughter of 23k would be 3.5million dollars if I just stick it in the S&P500 between her age of 2yo-65yo. I wonder if she can out earn 3.5 million dollars after she comes out of school to 65.

                Assuming she graduates at 22 year old, she'll have to make 82k/year to out earn 3.5 million by the time she's 65.
                Correct - because of the time value of money - earlier investments perform better as you stretch out your investing over a longer time period.
                james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
                202.468.6043

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by james.hendrickson View Post

                  Correct - because of the time value of money - earlier investments perform better as you stretch out your investing over a longer time period.
                  Exactly what I've tried to instill in my daughter. She opened her Roth at 16. That decision will serve her well 40 years from now.
                  Steve

                  * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                  * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                  * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Speaking of stock recommendations...I wish I had bought more Costco when the price was at $200. Their July sales were up 16% over last years.

                    ISSAQUAH, Wash, Aug. 04, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Costco Wholesale Corporation (“Costco” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: COST) today reported net sales of $15.21 billion for the retail month of July, the four weeks ended August 1, 2021, an increase of 16.6 percent from $13.04 billion last year. (Linky)

                    james.c.hendrickson@gmail.com
                    202.468.6043

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I'm back to eyeing ROKU.

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