Michael Burry says market is in a bubble

[jeffmem]

So what do you guys think about this?

https://www.businessinsider.in/stock...w/83546285.cms

[bjl584]

I don't know.

I see these people on TV everyday
If you go on CNBC and repeat every single day that the market is going to crash, then eventually you are going to be right.

I'm sure the markets will correct eventually.
They always do.
When it happens buy all the way down and back up again.
Coming out of 2009 did wonders for my portfolio

[jeffmem]

Do you not recognize his name?

[bjl584]

Do you not recognize his name?

yes.
they made a movie based on his play in the housing market.
he was right, that time.
will he be right with every prediction he makes?
or just the one they made a movie about?

[jeffmem]

Ok just making sure. haha. And yeah, he got lucky once, big. But indeed too many people talking market crash everyday. Perhaps they just want us to sell so they can buy. I don't feel we are in a bubble, and I think Tech is going to explode sooner or later.

[TexasHusker]

Certainly, some sectors/investment types are in a bubble. Real estate being one of them. The DJIA? Hey, as long as there is a healthy P/E, it's not a bubble. S&P? Same. Etc.

When does the RE bubble burst, and what event initiates that? Who knows.

[Nutria]

Certainly, some sectors/investment types are in a bubble. Real estate being one of them. The DJIA? Hey, as long as there is a healthy P/E, it's not a bubble. S&P? Same. Etc.

It's P/E is 29, as of today. A year ago, it was just 22. That's a 33% increase in just a year (though of course a year ago the market was wonky).

[Singuy]

The most famous short seller thinks the market is going to crash? Color me surprised.

[Singuy]

Certainly, some sectors/investment types are in a bubble. Real estate being one of them. The DJIA? Hey, as long as there is a healthy P/E, it's not a bubble. S&P? Same. Etc.

When does the RE bubble burst, and what event initiates that? Who knows.

So I don't see too many people buying houses and can't afford them since loans are even harder to come by when appraisers are coming up short vs the asking/bid price of the house. More and more people are making up the difference or just straight up paying cash for these houses. Plus there's a shortage of new houses due to supply chain issues. Once that issue is solved then there should be some relief, but I don't see any mass foreclosures like the 2008 housing crisis.

[Nutria]

I don't know.

I see these people on TV everyday
If you go on CNBC and repeat every single day that the market is going to crash, then eventually you are going to be right.

Exactly. Being right once doesn't count if you've been wrong 500 times.

[Scallywag]

Quite frankly, I have given up hopes of ever being able to afford a darn house -- it's exhausting & frustrating to see prices defy gravity and to know that we've likely been priced out nearly everywhere and not just in California, where we currently live.

As for the stock market, we continue to DCA into VOO. I am terrified of buying single shares and I don't think the S & P is a lot safer, although it IS safer than single stocka or actively managed funds.

Since we're getting closer to retirement and in our late 40s now, we cannot afford to be not invested or invested exclusively in bonds.

I do worry about a crash but I'm even more worried about retiring on less than what I project we'll need for our extended retirement, esp if we are renting or still have a mortgage in retirement.

Ugh.

[Singuy]

Exactly. Being right once doesn't count if you've been wrong 500 times.

Jim Chanos who made billions shorting Enron fallen to become a millioninaire after shorting Tesla.

Burry was good but hasn't produced any special returns since. My returns are more impressive than his and I don't get a movie. People just glorify shorts that make it big because everyone enjoys a car crash as making big shorting is rare and has lots of spectaticals associated with it.

[TexasHusker]

It's P/E is 29, as of today. A year ago, it was just 22. That's a 33% increase in just a year (though of course a year ago the market was wonky).

A P/E of 29 is too rich for my blood, for sure. Makes buying a vacation rental at 10X earnings seem a bargain. Perhaps that’s why folks keep buying them?

[TexasHusker]

Exactly. Being right once doesn't count if you've been wrong 500 times.

Even a broken clock is correct twice a day ?

[Nutria]

Even a broken clock is correct twice a day ?

A stopped clock is right twice a day. Things can break in a variety of ways. (Consider: if the clock is slightly fast or slightly slow, it'll never be right without manual intervention.)