LOST THOUSANDS in $TSLA today

[Singuy]

Any thoughts on why the S and P wouldn't include Tesla?

Over 20 companies qualifies for S&P inclusion every quarter, but only a few gets added or subtracted. The index is weighted based on valuation which means it is extremely difficult to add Tsla at its current valuation without massively disturbing potential returns. If there are speculators anticipating for indexers to hold the bag as they pump the stock to insane value like they suspected, then adding Tesla is not being responsible to those funds.

So being unpredictable is perhaps their number 1 reason as how Tesla earns their profits is irrelevant. This ensures no one is trying to gain the system.

It took 3 quarters after facebook qualified to be added. Took a quarter for amazon. So its going to happen, just don't know when which is great. I am loving that Tesla gained back it's valuation naturally vs some S&P speculators trying to play games. However this is probably due to the wildly hyped battery day event so expect some sell the news afterwards. Also short sellers may be off on vacation with Tesla because no one wants to be caught in a S&P inclusion squeeze which is inevitable.

[Scallywag]

UGH... so I did sell a lot the week of Sept 22 and now realize I could have MADE A FORTUNE had I just held on. I went from being a millionaire (slightly about the 1,000,000 mark on all accounts, including Coverdell) to back down below 950K.

BUT... but... but... NOT bad at all for a family that had very little just two years ago. FVRR / TSLA / ISRG / PAYC all helped. I did make some changes to her Coverdell, guess the beating I got here for venting just pushed me over the edge and I sold at the low end. Teach me to vent here again when I'm esp low and vulnerable, eh?

F*** that s**t. I am back in on all of the holdings I sold, and this time I mean to hold the freak on. We've got 2 years of college covered so it's ALL aggressive out from this point on now, babe. I just wish I hadn't sold when I did, only to rebuy everything again, when I realized I had my thinking straight all along, including the calculated against-the-grain decision to hold stocks in the Coverdell.

FML.

[corn18]

I was talking over the campfire with 2 of my friends the other night. One is like you, 100% individual tech stocks plus TSLA. The other is 100% NASDAQ. My age, looking to retire in the next 3-5 years. More power to them, but not for me. Holy crap, I would be screwed if my portfolio dropped 50% the day after I retired. I can handle 25%.

[Scallywag]

I was talking over the campfire with 2 of my friends the other night. One is like you, 100% individual tech stocks plus TSLA. The other is 100% NASDAQ. My age, looking to retire in the next 3-5 years. More power to them, but not for me. Holy crap, I would be screwed if my portfolio dropped 50% the day after I retired. I can handle 25%.

I am not overweight TSLA. I got it for a good price around TG before it's massive run-up. I bought FVRR at 32, ISRG at 510 and PAYC at 221. Now they're ALL up, AFTER I sold them. So my new entry points are much higher. I have a long horizon - around 40 years and this portfolio is for my son. I got brow-beaten over the Coverdell allocation even though I knew it would be partly rolled over into an ABLE account and partly into an IRA for my son. I just blame myself for losing my sh1t after posting here. I know most folks mean very well here, but at the end of the day, our situations are unique and we need to determine our asset allocation according to our specific needs. Over the next 40 years, if I stay vested, my son should have a nice chunk of change to live on (which is my ONLY concern at this time).

[corn18]

If a bunch of strangers on the internet can influence you, you are doing it all wrong. I get all kinds of cockamamie ideas every day from the multiple fora I read. I run the numbers through my model to see how great they are. Then I call up my IPS and read it and none of it fits what I wrote 10 years ago and still follow. No matter what your strategy, write it down and use it to quell the internet voices in your head.

[Scallywag]

If a bunch of strangers on the internet can influence you, you are doing it all wrong. I get all kinds of cockamamie ideas every day from the multiple fora I read. I run the numbers through my model to see how great they are. Then I call up my IPS and read it and none of it fits what I wrote 10 years ago and still follow. No matter what your strategy, write it down and use it to quell the internet voices in your head.

CORRECTION: USED to influence me. I was in a bad shape that day and worse of all, I got browbeaten and cowed into making changes that really put my ass on fire. No more. I know exactly what I am doing and I intend doing it. Better late than never. I am just waiting for a lower entry point on PAYC which shot up $80 A share AFTER I sold it. FML

[corn18]

CORRECTION: USED to influence me. I was in a bad shape that day and worse of all, I got browbeaten and cowed into making changes that really put my ass on fire. No more. I know exactly what I am doing and I intend doing it. Better late than never. I am just waiting for a lower entry point on PAYC which shot up $80 A share AFTER I sold it. FML

Seriously? You got brow beaten? You sound bitter.

[Scallywag]

Seriously? You got brow beaten? You sound bitter.

I am answering your question. Yes, I second-guessed myself and wouldn't you be a tad miffed if you had to buy back your prior holdings at thousands of dollars more than you sold them for? Bitter is a strong word and I am not bitter. I am miffed - at myself. Hope that clarifies it.

[~bs]

well you know what they say about emotional decisions being the worse to make. Somehow people have a tendancy to sell/buy at almost the worse times... lesson learned!

[Singuy]

I was talking over the campfire with 2 of my friends the other night. One is like you, 100% individual tech stocks plus TSLA. The other is 100% NASDAQ. My age, looking to retire in the next 3-5 years. More power to them, but not for me. Holy crap, I would be screwed if my portfolio dropped 50% the day after I retired. I can handle 25%.

I never really understood this portfolio drop 50% the day after you retire mentally. Say that happens, and it takes 2 years to recover..and we know it always recover..does it matter? Were you going to cash out 100% of your money when you retire? Why not just sell shares for living expenses only and leave the rest in the market? Makes no sense to cash out 100% anytime, let alone the day after a gigantic 50% market crash. If your retirement last you another 20 years, that is the amount of time your stocks can still remain in the market which means plenty time to recover. You dollar cost averaged in you should dollar cost average out.

Never understood that "when I'm 65, I can't afford another market crash"..why because you were going to die at 66 after cashing out everything and spend it on hookers and blow?

I feel like there are so many conventional wisdoms that gets it all wrong. Like you shouldn't be so risky near retirement and should just move everything to bonds...or diversify your portfolio as much as you can like an etf if you were going to buy individual stocks.

[disneysteve]

I never really understood this portfolio drop 50% the day after you retire mentally. Say that happens, and it takes 2 years to recover..and we know it always recover..does it matter?

I feel like there are so many conventional wisdoms that gets it all wrong. Like you shouldn't be so risky near retirement

Let's say you've determined that you need $2 million saved in order to retire and your plan is to then live off of the earnings without touching the principal, having your nest egg cut in half would wreck that plan, even if it only lasts a couple of years. You'd be forced to spend down principal which greatly increases your odds of running out of money.

As for dialing down the risk in retirement, it's about generating income and preserving principal. Most retirees strive to create a relatively steady dependable income stream. They don't want to constantly have to decide what to sell to get the money they need to live. They want to get regular bond interest, dividend checks, pension checks, annuity payments, and SS benefits. If you're 100% stock or close to it, that's not so easy to do. And overall, growth just isn't as important once you're retired, assuming you have enough saved. Why take the risk if you don't need to?

[Like2Plan]

CORRECTION: USED to influence me. I was in a bad shape that day and worse of all, I got browbeaten and cowed into making changes that really put my ass on fire. No more. I know exactly what I am doing and I intend doing it. Better late than never. I am just waiting for a lower entry point on PAYC which shot up $80 A share AFTER I sold it. FML

Scallywag,
I don't think anyone said--sell all your holdings. There were several suggestions to reorganize your holdings so that your 529's so that money that is the short term is not as exposed to potential volatile swings that seem to cause you lots of distress. There were several suggestions to put the more volatile holdings in the ABLE account that you don't expect to need for 40 years (or even put it in non tax advantaged account so that if there are losses you can tax loss harvest).

But, it seems like any move you make is going to cause you lots of distress.

[Like2Plan]

I never really understood this portfolio drop 50% the day after you retire mentally. Say that happens, and it takes 2 years to recover..and we know it always recover..does it matter? Were you going to cash out 100% of your money when you retire? Why not just sell shares for living expenses only and leave the rest in the market? Makes no sense to cash out 100% anytime, let alone the day after a gigantic 50% market crash. If your retirement last you another 20 years, that is the amount of time your stocks can still remain in the market which means plenty time to recover. You dollar cost averaged in you should dollar cost average out.

Never understood that "when I'm 65, I can't afford another market crash"..why because you were going to die at 66 after cashing out everything and spend it on hookers and blow?

I feel like there are so many conventional wisdoms that gets it all wrong. Like you shouldn't be so risky near retirement and should just move everything to bonds...or diversify your portfolio as much as you can like an etf if you were going to buy individual stocks.

The monte carlo simulations seem to indicate sequence of returns is a real risk. But, there is always discussion about this on Bogleheads. Such as--your portfolio drops 50%, do you adjust your expenses to 3 (or 4%) of your current portfolio amount? The other question is would you be able to cover your expenses with a reduced amount? If you start our with far more than what you need to cover expenses it might be a lot easier than if your starting point was bare minimums.

[disneysteve]

The monte carlo simulations seem to indicate sequence of returns is a real risk. But, there is always discussion about this on Bogleheads. Such as--your portfolio drops 50%, do you adjust your expenses to 3 (or 4%) of your current portfolio amount? The other question is would you be able to cover your expenses with a reduced amount? If you start our with far more than what you need to cover expenses it might be a lot easier than if your starting point was bare minimums.

Exactly. Let's say my goal is to retire with $2.2 million and live on 4%, or $88,000. If shortly after retirement, we suddenly only have $1.1 million, what are we supposed to do? We could trim spending but not by 50%. Now if our actual expenses are only 60K and the rest was meant to be fluff, that's great, but how many retirees are in that situation?

[corn18]

THe quick recoveries of 2008/9 and 2020 seem to be creating recency bias. Not all recoveries are that quick. Risk an individual assessment. That's why I'm 50/50 right now and my buddies are 100/0. They know what can happen and they are ok with it. I wish them no ill will and wish I had 38% returns this year.