You know what today is for me?

**Scanner** · 10-08-2010, 11:54 AM

BTW, my investing philosophy is more active than it used to be.

I call it "fluidic diversification."

I stay diversified. . .but I change my diversification based on what I think are current economic trends.

I now DO have to consider the downside risk of silver at this point may outweigh the upside risk. Still, as currencies tend to degrade. . .damn, I guess I am just a silver bug at heart

**bjl584** · 10-08-2010, 12:05 PM

analysts are claiming commodities are due to take a big hit soon. But they've been saying that for a while.

**Scanner** · 10-08-2010, 12:46 PM

Yeah - that's a real short limb to go out on

My take is. . .commodities will grow evermore important as our population grows and people compete for them.

Yeah, you have to think that technology could offset the need for some commodities (like grain and those new "farm high-rises" they talk about). But still. . .we don't live in an unlimited resource world anymore like when the Puritans landed in America.

**Scanner** · 10-08-2010, 01:23 PM

YOu know though. . .I just caught the headlines that BoA is halting foreclosures. . .I do have a large position in XLF and I am getting nervous as an investor.

**kork13** · 10-08-2010, 03:54 PM

I started to look back into my records to see where I was back before the market started turning south, but then I realized... I've pored so much money into my investment accounts since then that it's not even comparable -- my life has changed too much since then. Back in June 2007, I still had a year before I graduated college, I only had about $30k total in all of my accounts (taxable investments, Roth IRA, and even including my cash accounts) and had about $40k in debt, between a $10k car loan and a $30k 'career starter' personal loan. Now a little over 3 years later, my investments total over $70k, plus another $30k in cash accounts, and less than $18k left on the personal loan, which is sitting at a fixed 1% interest (so I'm intentionally drawing it out). Even more incredible, most of this progress has taken place over the last 15 months.

...I guess that's what graduating college and starting to focus on saving will do for you... In July '09, I was about in the same financial position as compared to June '07, except the car loan was gone (as of about 3 months prior) and the personal loan was about $25k. That's when I started tracking my account balances, and also developed a pretty well-defined budget for myself that emphasized savings, a shell that I'm still using today, despite moving twice and getting a promotion earlier this year. Comparing today to 3 years ago, for me, is like night and day. Wow.

**disneysteve** · 10-08-2010, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by kork13 View Post

I started to look back into my records to see where I was back before the market started turning south, but then I realized... I've pored so much money into my investment accounts since then that it's not even comparable

Same here. Over the past 3 years, we've added some 90K or so to our investment portfolio so I'm not sure how to go about calculating where we are today vs. where we were then. We've also paid off thousands in mortgage debt since then.

**Scanner** · 10-10-2010, 01:29 AM

True. I havent' added much at all in the last few years, with the divorce and all.

I did start a SEP-IRA this year and have added about $1000, that's all.

**scfr** · 10-10-2010, 08:08 AM

Surpassed it ages ago. Did it the old-fashioned way: new contributions (savings). Funds are invested pretty conservatively, so we didn't have much ground to make up.

**JBinKC** · 10-11-2010, 09:45 AM

I have made it back to my all time levels quickly because my portfolio fortunately had a large hedge in '08 of a 35% position in LT government bonds and 10% cash position that I on a consistently converted into equities that were beaten up as the fed went on a major money printing spree after the credit crisis.

As for SLW it is always prudent to at least consider recovering your cost in a stock and let profits ride until a you see some deterioration of fundamentals in the sector where I don't really see at the rate the fed is printing money again. BTW I agree with your choice of SLW being the best and safest way to play silver.

**feh** · 10-11-2010, 11:40 AM

I'd have to double-check, but I think our assets are back above 2007 levels.

It's not due to investing strategy, however. We pulled about 40% of our assets out of the market in October 2007 (just happened to be the high-water mark for the indices) to buy a house. We didn't sell our old home until early 2009, at which time that money went back into the market.

We sold high and bought low, although it wasn't by design.

**Broken Arrow** · 10-12-2010, 05:12 AM

I am wondering how many of you have made it back or are still waiting (or made it back long ago)?

Late 2008 was rough for everybody in equities, but through what I believe was dumb luck and perhaps recklessness, I believed the stock market was bottoming and bought heavily into it. The money I put in doubled as a result, and helped to offset the paper losses on my passive mutual funds. Ironic that the biggest gain I've ever had was into the very market that suffered such a huge loss to begin with.

Volatility in 2009 was off the charts, and that made it both exciting and dangerous to be an increasingly active trader. Due to the environment and my general lack of trading experience kicking in, my gains were not as good, but my relatively aggressive allocation of passive funds bounced back, some by as much as 30%. In general, I had recovered somewhere in the third quarter of 2009.

This year, things have improved substantially. The year is not over yet, but I am well ahead as far as % return goes. My trading accounts for up to two thirds of all my gains (with the last third being my savings). My trading has also evolved, thankfully, to the point where even though I am still as active as ever, I know painfully first-hand that I do not know where the market is going. At least, not well enough to profit by speculating. Before, I may have been opportunistic, but nowadays, my interest lies specifically in finding ways to minimize risk. Fortunately, one can still trade actively while focusing on risk reduction, and we'll see how that works out.

**gambler2075** · 10-12-2010, 05:22 AM

Originally posted by Broken Arrow View Post

Late 2008 was rough for everybody in equities, but through what I believe was dumb luck and perhaps recklessness, I believed the stock market was bottoming and bought heavily into it. The money I put in doubled as a result, and helped to offset the paper losses on my passive mutual funds. Ironic that the biggest gain I've ever had was into the very market that suffered such a huge loss to begin with.

Volatility in 2009 was off the charts, and that made it both exciting and dangerous to be an increasingly active trader. Due to the environment and my general lack of trading experience kicking in, my gains were not as good, but my relatively aggressive allocation of passive funds bounced back, some by as much as 30%. In general, I had recovered somewhere in the third quarter of 2009.

This year, things have improved substantially. The year is not over yet, but I am well ahead as far as % return goes. My trading accounts for up to two thirds of all my gains (with the last third being my savings). My trading has also evolved, thankfully, to the point where even though I am still as active as ever, I know painfully first-hand that I do not know where the market is going. At least, not well enough to profit by speculating. Before, I may have been opportunistic, but nowadays, my interest lies specifically in finding ways to minimize risk. Fortunately, one can still trade actively while focusing on risk reduction, and we'll see how that works out.

I think it would be important to reiterate that trading is not something that comes naturally to most people, and it is very counterintuitive, and no matter how easy people think it is to do, it is far, far, harder when you actually start doing it.

I didn't consider myself decent at trading until at least 5 years, and about 2000-3000 trades. I still stand by my position that I think attempting to trade for the vast majority of people is a very bad idea, and holding onto their mutual funds or whatever is far better. Just remember that it is far better to gain 3% in a year in your mutual fund than to lose 60% of it trading. I also think it is a bad idea unless you can trade with what you can afford to lose, and you have the time and effort to put into trading. The 10,000 hour figure has been cited before, as the level it takes to get good at something, whether it be being a lawyer, doctor, engineer, or whatever, and I tend to agree. I have put in well over 10,000 hours into learning to trade/trading over the past eight years and I only now feel relatively comfortable with it.

So to those would-be traders out there in SA land, be extremely careful. If you try to trade your retirement I can almost guarantee you that unless you have the right combination of time, temperament and risk aversion, you will suffer staggering losses.

A good quote I read on trading is:

"Professional day traders focus on limiting risk and protecting capital. Amateur traders focus on how much money they can make on each trade. Professionals day traders always take money away from amateurs traders."

g

p.s. BA, out of curiosity, how long have you been trading? about how many trades?

p.p.s. I would also say that I didn't become really profitable trading until I learned to control my emotions when I had profits and losses. I am at the point where losing 25,000$ in two days doesn't bother me, as well as days when I had 100,000$+ profits... (3 so far). When you are a trader you kind of end up distancing yourself from the value of the money, and it just becomes a number. Staying unemotional is the key.

**Broken Arrow** · 10-12-2010, 05:35 AM

Originally posted by gambler2075 View Post

p.s. BA, out of curiosity, how long have you been trading? about how many trades?

Daily hobby since 2008. I did not intend to become a trader at first. It started out only as a way to aggressively take advantage of the down market.

As for quantity, I don't know. Maybe only in the hundreds. However, I don't think quantity matters as much as quality. That and I am a swing trader. I will not day trade.

**gambler2075** · 10-12-2010, 05:39 AM

Originally posted by Broken Arrow View Post

Daily hobby since 2008. I did not intend to become a trader at first. It started out only as a way to aggressively take advantage of the down market.

As for quantity, I don't know. Maybe only in the hundreds. However, I don't think quantity matters as much as quality. That and I am a swing trader. I will not day trade.

I agree that after many, many, many forays into daytrading (specifically, buying and selling in the same day) I have realized that it is not profitable for me. I think with HFT, intraday trading opportunities are few and far between.

My swing trades are what make the bulk of my profits.

g

You know what today is for me?