Made a good call for once

**disneysteve** · 06-26-2010, 11:54 AM

Originally posted by Scanner View Post

I bought around $28.00 and it's trading around $32-36, about a 20%-30% profit in 6 months.

My question is do I now sell it

It's only a profit if you sell it. If you are happy with a 30% profit in 6 months (which I think you would be), then sell it. If you have good reason to think it is still moving upward, hang on. Or hedge your bet and sell half your shares, lock in some profit and see what happens. Or place a trailing stop loss order and let the chips fall where they fall. If it keeps climbing, you make more money. If the price drops, you sell and preserve your profit.

**Scanner** · 06-26-2010, 02:44 PM

Well, I put a stop order in at $33.00. It's decided.

Either it will continue to go up or I'll be sitting on some cash soon if it drops and back here deciding what to buy, maybe JAOSX. . .I'll have to decide how the emerging markets and international markets prospects look.

**jpg7n16** · 06-28-2010, 12:19 PM

so wait... how did you value the company?

it was undervalued at $28, but now at $32 it's overvalued? that seems a bit odd. or you just have a much different mentality towards purchasing individual stocks than I do.

If you really felt the company was worth $30, then you need to read up on margin of safety.

**Scanner** · 06-30-2010, 10:11 AM

It's not a company - it's an ETF - it's a real estate ETF and I am postulating real estate will probably stagnate for awhile and perhaps international will finally start to rally again.

**jpg7n16** · 06-30-2010, 10:47 AM

Oh maybe I should have looked it up

hah

Well then how did you value the fund?

REZ has pretty high earnings ratios iShares FTSE NAREIT Resid Plus Cp Idx Report | REZ | Portfolio , but I know REITs are valued differently (due to depreciation, etc.) You're supposed to use AFFO, but I can't find a calc on the fund. Plus the yield at 3.47% seems low for the risk. Morningstar rates it 5-star though, so maybe they know something I don't.

The other fund, JAOSX: Janus Overseas T Report (JAOSX) | Asset Allocation Summary has a P/E that's slightly higher than the category average, but at 15.8, it's not too high really.

Are you looking short term, or long term?

**Scanner** · 06-30-2010, 10:52 AM

I suppose I have moved to being a short term guy. Rather than being a "buy and holder", I tend to like to invest what I think will "wave" next, ride it for awhile and then jump off and decide what else I could ride.

I do this because of past errors I have made.

The main story I retell here was when Janus Overseas was up like 83% one year (somewhere pre-bubble) and I asked the forum, "I think I should sell this. . .I don't know how much more I can get out of this."

The forum said to just "buy and hold" and well, it tanked like 50%. I honestly can't remember what I was thinking of going into - something told me bonds, which would have limited my losses.

Now. . .real estate doesn't classically earn than much over the long haul but I knew it was due for an upswing. . .so I sank 50% of my portfolio into REZ. .. with about 20-30% return in 6 months. . .I am not sure how more I can ride this wave, you know.

Time to hop off and paddle out again even if I have sit there for awhile and judge the swells and talk to the other surfers.

My only exception is my long term hold is silver - I am a silver bug now and until I reach $100,000 in assets, will have it at least be 33% of my portfolio.

Made a good call for once