What’s your plan in 2035 when E-cars are mandatory?

[QuarterMillionMan]

I have a 2018 journey, maybe in 2028 I’ll buy my last new combustion car, then a 2035 electric car.

[Singuy]

33k miles on my model 3. 3k saved on fuel. Had no oil changes. Waiting impatiently for my full self driving update. Can't wait for December when a major update drops with hopefully Disney + and FSD.

The transition is currently smooth to electric. I find my other gas car annoying now since I still need to make trips out of my way to the gas pump and the shop for oil changes.

For people who haven't experienced frequently game changing software updates is like people who haven't experienced an iPhone and are still on flip phones. Once you have it, you can't imagine cars without it.

[bjl584]

This is a California thing right?
No such regulations where I live, so I have no plans to go electric.
I really don't want to give up my diesel

[Singuy]

This is a California thing right?
No such regulations where I live, so I have no plans to go electric.
I really don't want to give up my diesel

Would you still keep diesel if insurance is 2x more, fuel is 5x more, maintenance is 3x more, and a comparable electric cost the same up front?

[ua_guy]

That's too far away for me to worry about other than the nebulous "eventual vehicle replacement" which I'm guessing I'll do at least once, if not twice, in the time between 2021 and 2035. Also, this appears to be California-only at this point.

There are a lot of unanswered questions. Electric vehicles aren't currently suitable to replace all passenger and light duty pickups, and medium duty vehicles on the road. What about RV's? Perhaps things will have changed by 2035.

I applaud the ambition to go green, but as with everything, talk is cheap, and I don't see a strategy or path to accomplishing that right now.

[disneysteve]

I certainly don't have any sort of plan for what may or may not happen 15 years from now.

I just bought a 2018 Camry. I'll probably have that for 12 years or so. At that point, I'll figure out what to buy next.

Personally, I don't think gas cars will disappear in 15 years. A lot can change in technology so anything is possible but you're talking about totally transforming the way we have driven for over 130 years. A lot has to happen between now and 2035 to make e-cars the only option. Tesla has done impressive things but there can't just be one option. Every major manufacturer needs to have competitive offerings. We need a couple hundred thousand more charging stations across the country. Houses need to be retrofitted with charging stations. Apartment buildings need a way for residents to charge their cars. In cities, you'd need charging stations along nearly every street the way parking meters are now. The same for parking lots - every space would need a charger. When I lived in Philadelphia, we parked out on the street, not near our house. How would we charge our cars?

I just don't see all of that happening in 15 years.

[QuarterMillionMan]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pjhr__O0ndU using Video Tube.

[Singuy]

I certainly don't have any sort of plan for what may or may not happen 15 years from now.

I just bought a 2018 Camry. I'll probably have that for 12 years or so. At that point, I'll figure out what to buy next.

Personally, I don't think gas cars will disappear in 15 years. A lot can change in technology so anything is possible but you're talking about totally transforming the way we have driven for over 130 years. A lot has to happen between now and 2035 to make e-cars the only option. Tesla has done impressive things but there can't just be one option. Every major manufacturer needs to have competitive offerings. We need a couple hundred thousand more charging stations across the country. Houses need to be retrofitted with charging stations. Apartment buildings need a way for residents to charge their cars. In cities, you'd need charging stations along nearly every street the way parking meters are now. The same for parking lots - every space would need a charger. When I lived in Philadelphia, we parked out on the street, not near our house. How would we charge our cars?

I just don't see all of that happening in 15 years.

Houses does not need to be retrofited with charging stations. Every house has the ability to install a 240v dryer plug. That is what 95% of ev owners use. Mine was installed in the garage for 100 bucks. It charges the car at 32 miles per hours, plenty for an overnight charge. And if people are too cheap to spend the 100-200 bucks, they can use a regular outlet which will charge about 50 miles overnight, enough for the daily commute.

I think people here under estimate the transition if you only know as much about Tesla as the rest of the auto industry. By 2025, a typical Tesla will have a range of 550-650miles and can charge 400 miles in 15 minutes. So it will solve the city charging issue. Scaling super chargers is no problem as they just rolled out a station with 56 stalls. The infrastructure is much easier to scale than a typical gas station (when was the last time you seen a gas station with 56 pumps?. Tesla can put in 100 charging stations if they want).

And as for the grid infrastructure to feed all these super charger stations, Tesla is using solar canopies and their power packs to store power, essentially putting almost no load on the grid.

As for there needs to be more players than tesla, I agree. However Tesla set the president of cars becoming more software heavy than before especially with autonomous driving coming online. So a lot of things need to happen with legacy automakers in order for Tesla to not be the only player. The biggest is how to make a 600 mile car for 35k or less by 2025+

[disneysteve]

Houses does not need to be retrofited with charging stations. Every house has the ability to install a 240v dryer plug. That is what 95% of ev owners use. Mine was installed in the garage for 100 bucks.

Lots of houses don't have garages. How much does it cost to install an outdoor charging station? And what do you do if live in an apartment building or use street parking? If you can pull into a station and charge in a few minutes, that works. We just need many, many more charging stations.

Can't wait for December when a major update drops with hopefully Disney + and FSD.

Why would your car possibly need Disney+, and what is FSD?

[QuarterMillionMan]

California will make everyone get onboard whether you like it or not. BTW, in the Ford commercial I didn't hear "California." They are talking America by 2035

[disneysteve]

California will make everyone get onboard whether you like it or not.

They can only do that if the products and infrastructure exist by then. It's an aspirational goal. Time will tell if it's an achievable one.

Obviously, there is a big impact to the labor market with any major transition. Singuy has said how the Tesla is nearly zero maintenance. That means lots of out of work mechanics and shuttered repair shops. As gas engines fade away, what happens to the 165,000+ gas stations in the US? I guess they convert to EV charging stations. Is that as profitable for them? I don't really know how electric charging works or gets paid for. When I pull my Tesla up to a charging station, how and who do I pay? And if I can charge at home most of the time, will we even need all of those stations?

I'd love to see EVs become the norm. Will it happen in 15 years? Who knows?

[ua_guy]

Houses does not need to be retrofited with charging stations. Every house has the ability to install a 240v dryer plug. That is what 95% of ev owners use. Mine was installed in the garage for 100 bucks. It charges the car at 32 miles per hours, plenty for an overnight charge. And if people are too cheap to spend the 100-200 bucks, they can use a regular outlet which will charge about 50 miles overnight, enough for the daily commute.

I think people here under estimate the transition if you only know as much about Tesla as the rest of the auto industry. By 2025, a typical Tesla will have a range of 550-650miles and can charge 400 miles in 15 minutes. So it will solve the city charging issue. Scaling super chargers is no problem as they just rolled out a station with 56 stalls. The infrastructure is much easier to scale than a typical gas station (when was the last time you seen a gas station with 56 pumps?. Tesla can put in 100 charging stations if they want).

And as for the grid infrastructure to feed all these super charger stations, Tesla is using solar canopies and their power packs to store power, essentially putting almost no load on the grid.

As for there needs to be more players than tesla, I agree. However Tesla set the president of cars becoming more software heavy than before especially with autonomous driving coming online. So a lot of things need to happen with legacy automakers in order for Tesla to not be the only player. The biggest is how to make a 600 mile car for 35k or less by 2025+

Not everyone has a garage, or a house. What about people in apartments? Also, installing a 240v plug in a garage may be much more than a $100-$200 endeavor depending on permitting, available space in the electrical panel. And that doesn't include the cost of the charging equipment.

I agree with you that the "car" side of things is coming along nicely. Decent range. Charging isn't impossible. But it's not ready for full implementation.

There is still a LOT to solve for, and maybe 15 years will be long enough. Also noted: The American people simply will not do what they don't want to do.

[Petunia 100]

Would you still keep diesel if insurance is 2x more, fuel is 5x more, maintenance is 3x more, and a comparable electric cost the same up front?

I will if I am still RVing. You can't pull a 5th wheel up a mountain with electric, unless they have signficant improvements between now and 2035.

[Petunia 100]

California will make everyone get onboard whether you like it or not. BTW, in the Ford commercial I didn't hear "California." They are talking America by 2035

Well, I certainly hope there is a plan to stop the power outages. The last two fires near us started during planned power outages. I sure don't want to be in the position of needing to flee a fire and no way to charge my e-vehicle.

[Singuy]

Well, I certainly hope there is a plan to stop the power outages. The last two fires near us started during planned power outages. I sure don't want to be in the position of needing to flee a fire and no way to charge my e-vehicle.

No way to pump gas with a power outage either. And with Tesla's solar plus power packs, the power is localized so if the grid goes down, the chargers are still up unlike gas pumps.