unemployment claims

[LivingAlmostLarge]

The consensus for unemployment claims tomorrow is 4.35 million. Previously last week it was 5.2 million, 6.6M and 6.9M, and 3.3M. I think it's 6.6M and it was only down because of good friday a week ago. I know that self employed independent contractors are starting to be able to file for their $600/week from federal government.

I think this report tomorrow if higher than 4.35M and earnings will rock the stock market. After all they believe claims are going down instead of being put on pause because of a holiday. I hope i'm wrong and claims are down to 4.35M/week ending 4/17.

What do you guys think?

[disneysteve]

I certainly don't know enough to make an educated guess. I would think that the bulk of shutdowns had already happened. But I also know there are still a lot of people that haven't been able to get through to their state unemployment department to file their claims because they've been so overwhelmed. And if the self-employed folks are newly able to file, that would move the number up, too.

[Scallywag]

I think it's time to long on oil and short the market.

[ua_guy]

I think this reflects the first punch of workers who immediately lost jobs. I think there are more waves of unemployment coming - those in more stable industries but are still affected and are starting to experience losses stack up. It starts with pay reductions, loss of incentives, and furloughs. There will be more claims incoming as people file to supplement those losses.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

it'll be curious to see tomorrow's numbers

[disneysteve]

I think there are more waves of unemployment coming - those in more stable industries but are still affected and are starting to experience losses stack up.

That's a good point. I do know some people that weren't affected right away but have been in the past week or two. There's also major employers like Disney and others who didn't furlough workers right away. Disney alone furloughed 100,000 people just two days ago.

[TexasHusker]

That's a good point. I do know some people that weren't affected right away but have been in the past week or two. There's also major employers like Disney and others who didn't furlough workers right away. Disney alone furloughed 100,000 people just two days ago.

I have the "Dr. Fauci view" of the economy: The economy is like COVID that is just now reaching our shores: We haven't even begun to see the carnage of the shut down. Like we haven't even gotten out of the starting gate. Most Fortune 500 companies did not initially furlough workers. In the coming days, some of the nation's top retailers, many with pre-COVID strong balance sheets, are going to be going out of business. There will be hundreds of thousands of job losses just from those companies. Oil and gas, hundreds of thousands of jobs lossed. Airlines are very close to bankruptcy. Just Delta Airlines alone is burning $100 million PER DAY. That's $ 3 billion A MONTH gone. Not sustainable. Look for most airlines to shutter. There is no bailout big enough to save them. Large home builders are going to be gone. You will have many banks teetering very soon as default rates go through the roof. Car makers are going to grind to a halt. There's no one to buy their cars. There will be many hospitals - primarily rural, that go bankrupt. Large entertainment companies - Disney, Universal, AMC, United Artists -look for a lot of bankruptcies here.

Empty malls, empty car lots, empty shopping centers.

All of this is going to mean huge numbers of people with no jobs or health insurance, tens of millions receiving unemployment and then welfare and Medicaid, which translates into tax increases that would impress the queen mother. I'm talking knock your socks off numbers.

The price of shutting down massive swaths of this economy for months is going to take 10 to 15 years to recover from, possibly more. I'm 53 and maybe not even in my lifetime. It could rival the Great Depression.

Buckle up, it's going to be a rough ride, and like COVID, no one is escaping.

[Scallywag]

I have the "Dr. Fauci view" of the economy: The economy is like COVID that is just now reaching our shores: We haven't even begun to see the carnage of the shut down. Like we haven't even gotten out of the starting gate. Most Fortune 500 companies did not initially furlough workers. In the coming days, some of the nation's top retailers, many with pre-COVID strong balance sheets, are going to be going out of business. There will be hundreds of thousands of job losses just from those companies. Oil and gas, hundreds of thousands of jobs lossed. Airlines are very close to bankruptcy. Just Delta Airlines alone is burning $100 million PER DAY. That's $ 3 billion A MONTH gone. Not sustainable. Look for most airlines to shutter. There is no bailout big enough to save them. Large home builders are going to be gone. You will have many banks teetering very soon as default rates go through the roof. Car makers are going to grind to a halt. There's no one to buy their cars. There will be many hospitals - primarily rural, that go bankrupt. Large entertainment companies - Disney, Universal, AMC, United Artists -look for a lot of bankruptcies here.

Empty malls, empty car lots, empty shopping centers.

All of this is going to mean huge numbers of people with no jobs or health insurance, tens of millions receiving unemployment and then welfare and Medicaid, which translates into tax increases that would impress the queen mother. I'm talking knock your socks off numbers.

The price of shutting down massive swaths of this economy for months is going to take 10 to 15 years to recover from, possibly more. I'm 53 and maybe not even in my lifetime. It could rival the Great Depression.

Buckle up, it's going to be a rough ride, and like COVID, no one is escaping.

How is Delta burning through $100 million per day? I don't know if this will be the Greater Depression but I predict a lot if pain over the next few years

[disneysteve]

How is Delta burning through $100 million per day?

Disney has said the shutdown is costing them $30 million/day. That number will drop now that they've furloughed everyone.

I think a lot of companies got screwed by not cutting everyone loose right away because they were hoping it would only be a couple of weeks. Keeping folks on the payroll when there was no work to be done and no money coming in to pay them is financial suicide.

In some ways, I think this is going to be like a forest fire - in the good way. It's going to wipe out a lot of the dead wood, companies that were barely hanging on by the thinnest of threads and this cut that last thread. Seriously, JC Penney and Macy's should have closed up ages ago. AMC apparently was doing quite poorly as well. There are numerous companies that were operating deep in the red, living on debt alone. As soon as the income to service that debt gets turned off, the house of cards collapses. It doesn't matter if you're an individual up to your neck in credit card debt or a corporation with maxed out lines of credit. Living beyond your means catches up with you eventually.

That doesn't mean this won't be really painful, but just as a forest fire causes a lot of devastation, it also creates opportunity for new growth. Especially in a period of rock bottom interest rates and what likely will be a lot of vacant commercial space, it will be interesting to see what crops up in the next few years.

All of this is going to mean huge numbers of people with no jobs or health insurance

This will be (already is) a huge problem. Maybe, just maybe, this will be the push we need to uncouple insurance from employment. You shouldn't have to have a good job to have decent and affordable health insurance. Of course, whether or not any progress gets made in that department will depend on what happens in November.

[TexasHusker]

Disney has said the shutdown is costing them $30 million/day. That number will drop now that they've furloughed everyone.

I think a lot of companies got screwed by not cutting everyone loose right away because they were hoping it would only be a couple of weeks. Keeping folks on the payroll when there was no work to be done and no money coming in to pay them is financial suicide.

In some ways, I think this is going to be like a forest fire - in the good way. It's going to wipe out a lot of the dead wood, companies that were barely hanging on by the thinnest of threads and this cut that last thread. Seriously, JC Penney and Macy's should have closed up ages ago. AMC apparently was doing quite poorly as well. There are numerous companies that were operating deep in the red, living on debt alone. As soon as the income to service that debt gets turned off, the house of cards collapses. It doesn't matter if you're an individual up to your neck in credit card debt or a corporation with maxed out lines of credit. Living beyond your means catches up with you eventually.

That doesn't mean this won't be really painful, but just as a forest fire causes a lot of devastation, it also creates opportunity for new growth. Especially in a period of rock bottom interest rates and what likely will be a lot of vacant commercial space, it will be interesting to see what crops up in the next few years.


This will be (already is) a huge problem. Maybe, just maybe, this will be the push we need to uncouple insurance from employment. You shouldn't have to have a good job to have decent and affordable health insurance. Of course, whether or not any progress gets made in that department will depend on what happens in November.

If you don't have a job, you sure won't have money for any insurance.

It's going to be a mighty big forest fire as you call it. If you have your job or business after all of it, you'll be one of the lucky ones. Putting 20 to 30 million - probably 50 million before it's all over - onto the unemployment rolls is simply shifting the financial burden to you and me, and the rest of us who have an income. That's not even zero sum, and we will find out that this was a very short term strategy as many (most? all?) of the states' unemployment funds are going to be insolvent within a few weeks. States and municipalities are headed for bankruptcy, too. That means defaults to bondholders (investors).

Fortune 500 companies have a lot more than labor to worry about. Airlines have billions and billions tied up in airplanes that are parked in the desert. Hotels are sitting on massive chunks of empty properties. Retailers of all kinds are holding massive buildings.

While I like your outlook that this will create opportunity (perhaps eventually), it is actually going to rob opportunity for tens of millions of families, through no fault of their own.

[Scallywag]

If you don't have a job, you sure won't have money for any insurance.

It's going to be a mighty big forest fire as you call it. If you have your job or business after all of it, you'll be one of the lucky ones. Putting 20 to 30 million - probably 50 million before it's all over - onto the unemployment rolls is simply shifting the financial burden to you and me, and the rest of us who have an income. That's not even zero sum, and we will find out that this was a very short term strategy as many (most? all?) of the states' unemployment funds are going to be insolvent within a few weeks. States and municipalities are headed for bankruptcy, too. That means defaults to bondholders (investors).

Fortune 500 companies have a lot more than labor to worry about. Airlines have billions and billions tied up in airplanes that are parked in the desert. Hotels are sitting on massive chunks of empty properties. Retailers of all kinds are holding massive buildings.

While I like your outlook that this will create opportunity (perhaps eventually), it is actually going to rob opportunity for tens of millions of families, through no fault of their own.

Most retailers lease their store property and showrooms. A lot of commercial landlords are already in trouble as businesses are unable to pay their bills, including their rent. Many commercial and investment properties with mortgages on them are already in default and will likely be foreclosed on, once the moratorium on foreclosures is raised.

I don't believe that the virus is solely to blame. Almost 90% of the problem is CREDIT, free spending and lack of future planning. I pray that we will learn at least now.

[TexasHusker]

You can’t put back enough cash to go dark for a month or more. The numbers don’t work. Maybe in your personal budget, yes.

The shareholders of publicly traded companies, like the ones held in your 401K, like to receive dividends.

This is my last post on this board, forever. I can’t deal any more with people who can’t, or won’t, understand basic economics. It would be funny if it weren’t so pathetically sad.

Wishing you all wellness and happiness.

Out.

[rennigade]

You can’t put back enough cash to go dark for a month or more. The numbers don’t work. Maybe in your personal budget, yes.

The shareholders of publicly traded companies, like the ones held in your 401K, like to receive dividends.

This is my last post on this board, forever. I can’t deal any more with people who can’t, or won’t, understand basic economics. It would be funny if it weren’t so pathetically sad.

Wishing you all wellness and happiness.

Out.

Least you're leaving this site on your terms unlike 97guns who was forever banned.

[~bs]

You can’t put back enough cash to go dark for a month or more. The numbers don’t work. Maybe in your personal budget, yes.

The shareholders of publicly traded companies, like the ones held in your 401K, like to receive dividends.

This is my last post on this board, forever. I can’t deal any more with people who can’t, or won’t, understand basic economics. It would be funny if it weren’t so pathetically sad.

Wishing you all wellness and happiness.

Out.

Best of luck with everything, and hope you make it out the other side. Godspeed!

[bjl584]

I'm not sure how bad things are really going to get.
No one ones.
The sky is falling for some. This will be over in a few months for others.
Guessing the truth is somewhere in the middle