Probably a dumb purchase financially...

[Fishindude77]

I look at the Rolex and it looks like a watch to me. No elevated pulse. LOL

Obviously not my thing. Still, this thread is interesting. Your knowledge of watches is pretty awesome. You're like one of the experts on Antique Roadshow discovering treasure.

My thoughts also, but interesting thread regardless.
Might have to buy a couple and stick in the safe for long term appreciation, or get one for my grandson and give it to him when he's 20.

[TexasHusker]

I would be interested in hearing from Corn what he thinks the "good buys" are in the Rolex world. Or are we in a Rolex bubble?

I can see myself buying a GMT Master at some point if I found a good deal.

[corn18]

Non-vintage:

Sky-Dweller & Daytona (ceramic): If you buy one at a dealer for MSRP, you can flip it immediately for $4k more than you paid. It's been this way since they were introduced. If you see one at a dealer, buy it. They are very hard to find at MSRP. There is usually a 1-3 year wait to get them from a dealer @ MSRP. You can find them on the gray market, but they will carry the $4k premium over MSRP.

Submariner & GMT: Hard to get at retail but more available than the two above. They do not depreciate a dime but you won't get a premium over MSRP. They will hold value well until they get to vintage age like TexasHusker's. Then all bets are off.

Anything precious metal: Will lose 20%-40% of value right after you buy it. Just too much premium for PM. This applies to all brands.

The rest of the Rolex lineup is ok for retaining value, but nothing special. A lot like most other mid level brands (Omega, IWC, Panerai). If you buy a new one for MSRP, you'll take a 10% hit and then it should hold its value, but won't go up much until it gets to vintage age (usually 30+ years). But, vintage of these types are not as hot as vintage Submariners and GMT's.

When you get to the true premium brands like A. Lange Sohne, Patek Phillipe, Audemars Piguet and Jaeger-LeCoultre, then you have to be very careful. Some will hold value well, but most will take a 20% hit right away. When you're spending $40k on a watch, you should know what you're getting into. The good news is there is a solid used market for these and, just like cars, you can get someone else to take the initial depreciation hit. But unlike cars, once that initial depreciation is factored in, they will hold value well and most will go up.

[disneysteve]

Non-vintage:

Sky-Dweller & Daytona (ceramic): If you buy one at a dealer for MSRP, you can flip it immediately for $4k more than you paid. It's been this way since they were introduced. If you see one at a dealer, buy it. They are very hard to find at MSRP.

Funny, the exact same thing is true of premium bourbons - just with lower dollar amounts involved. Very few liquor stores sell the most in demand bottles (which are super hard to find anyway) at MSRP so if I ever find them, I'll buy them, even if I don't personally want them. I know enough people who will buy them from me for a nice mark up.

[TexasHusker]

It's hard to conceive that my dad's 1982-ish Submariner is worth several $ thousand more than a brand new one that isn't faded, but i guess it's all a matter of who is willing to pay for what.

[Drake3287]

I would be interested in hearing from Corn what he thinks the "good buys" are in the Rolex world. Or are we in a Rolex bubble?

I can see myself buying a GMT Master at some point if I found a good deal.

It's literally the tightest market in history for poplar Rolex watches such as the GMT, Submariner, etc. Daytona's have a 4 or 5 year wait list! 99% of Rolex dealers around the world have half empty jewelry case's because of it.

Many dealers place the blame on the hot economy and the Asian market for high-end jewelry world-wide. Rolex is obviously very smart with all this, they keep inventory low knowing they can sell anything they make and realize that if they mass produced these watches the value would drop like a rock.

For me it wasn't an investment, just a watch I've always wanted and will keep forever. When I recently bought mine, every dealer was extremely careful not to sell it if it appeared that it was only going to be resold on the black market.

The black market (grey dealers) is Rolex's big concern right now and they do everything possible to limit the ability of watches for them.

[corn18]

And there are 2 different gray markets.

1. Resellers that buy from authorized dealers (or other channels) and then resell them with their own warranty. I don't like these as they represent a risk in that you have to use only the reseller if there are warranty issues. These are tougher to resell because of this. The second buyer has to use the reseller for warranty and often times the warranty is not transferable. Barfaroni. These are the Jomashops of the world. There are hundreds of them.

2. Resellers that buy from authorized dealers and get a stamped and dated warranty card with it. These are less common, but there are a few on the rolexforums.com (TRF for short) that are very trustworthy. That's where I bought most of my Rolexes. These watches carry a full Rolex backed warranty and can be serviced at any Rolex authorized dealer. These are much easier to resell as they are covered by Rolex.

I much prefer #2, but #1 is ok as well.

Watchrecon.com is the best place to look for a watch. Just need to make sure you are buying from a trusted seller. The #1 rule in high end watch buying is to buy the seller. There are some good deals that pop up from unknown or shady sellers and I just move on.

[~bs]

unless something is going to appreciate very quickly, i'm not sure about buying collectibles as an investment. long term, you'll be better off with the stock market unless your collectible can do 10% average long term.

[~bs]

It's literally the tightest market in history for poplar Rolex watches such as the GMT, Submariner, etc. Daytona's have a 4 or 5 year wait list! 99% of Rolex dealers around the world have half empty jewelry case's because of it.

Many dealers place the blame on the hot economy and the Asian market for high-end jewelry world-wide. Rolex is obviously very smart with all this, they keep inventory low knowing they can sell anything they make and realize that if they mass produced these watches the value would drop like a rock.

For me it wasn't an investment, just a watch I've always wanted and will keep forever. When I recently bought mine, every dealer was extremely careful not to sell it if it appeared that it was only going to be resold on the black market.

The black market (grey dealers) is Rolex's big concern right now and they do everything possible to limit the ability of watches for them.

that's the danger in buying popular collectibles now. You have more dollars chasing a limited quantity of goods. In recession, the prices will likely collapse by a large amount. It is better to wait until the market turns. If you buy to invest now, you better be able to dump before a downturn or hold on through a downcycle and its subsequent recovery.

Artificial scarcity is a popular and smart technique used by manufacturers of high end and desirable items.
-----------------------

I have bottles of alcohol that I paid $100 - $150 just a few years ago that I've been selling for $500-600 each now. I think a lot of the demand in the luxury markets is driven by foreign investors. There's a lot of wealthy chinese that are looking to divest their wealth in china and buy up luxury items and properties world wide. Normal people in the US are worried about buying onesie twosie rolexes as investment. These chinese guys are coming in and buying ALL that's available in the store. If the store happens to have 10, they're buying all 10.

[Drake3287]

Agree. Certainly not an investment like one would expect with the stock market or real estate. My dealer said a year earlier he no problem getting these watches and had never expected this.

Now he can't even get a watch for the display case because everything is already spoken for.

[~bs]

if you serious, you might want to inquire around to other dealers in the area, just keep calling every so often or get put on a list.

If you do other business with the dealer like use his repair services, that's a good way to see if he'd be willing to help you out in acquiring a watch as well.

[TexasHusker]

I honestly think I might wait until the next big economic downturn and buy $50K worth of watches and just store them away.

Of course there is no telling when that will happen, but economies expand and contract, and this one can't expand forever.

I'm holding a bunch of real estate that will probably be in the dumper with the watches. As long as I can still rent 'em it's all good.

[disneysteve]

I'm holding a bunch of real estate that will probably be in the dumper with the watches. As long as I can still rent 'em it's all good.

And doesn’t the rental market thrive in a financial downturn because more folks can’t afford to buy? As long as you aren’t looking too sell properties you should be fine.

[TexasHusker]

And doesn’t the rental market thrive in a financial downturn because more folks can’t afford to buy? As long as you aren’t looking too sell properties you should be fine.

These are vacation rentals, but yes, they do fine during a downturn - or at least the last one.

They are all in the Smoky Mountains. What we find is that during economic booms, our guests are traveling from further distances. In downturns, folks are coming from 300 miles away or less.

Hope that holds up.

[disneysteve]

These are vacation rentals, but yes, they do fine during a downturn - or at least the last one.

They are all in the Smoky Mountains. What we find is that during economic booms, our guests are traveling from further distances. In downturns, folks are coming from 300 miles away or less.

Hope that holds up.

I hope so too. Even in down times, there will always be people with money to spend, and they may look for different ways to spend it. So maybe the family that would normally jet off to Europe decides to rent a cabin in the mountains instead and spend a lot less than they normally would.