Banning gas cars?

[LivingAlmostLarge]

What do you think about WA banning gas cars by 2030? CA and a few other states are banning by 2035? Do you think it'll be cheap enough by 2030 that it won't affect the average person?

[disneysteve]

Ain’t gonna happen.

[ua_guy]

What do you think about WA banning gas cars by 2030? CA and a few other states are banning by 2035? Do you think it'll be cheap enough by 2030 that it won't affect the average person?

There are discussions about banning *new* gasoline vehicles in WA in 2030. I think the date is premature, and think it should be an issue of consumer choice. I don't think there's any question that the future is (eventually) electric or other propulsion for passenger vehicles, and the market is going there, eventually, but 9 years from now isn't that long in the grand scheme of things. There are too many gaps right now, and a lack of clarification around to whom that law might actually apply.

[Like2Plan]

I was actually surprised to see some vehicles Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV) being advertised in CA (Toyota's Mirai--67/64 est. MPGe). It was kind of expensive, but it included complimentary fuel for up to six years or $15,000 and eligible for HOV carpool. https://www.toyota.com/mirai/

They had a link to refueling stations in CA ( https://cafcp.org/stationmap ) There were more stations that I thought there were, but what happens when you leave CA?

Maybe that is the future?

[disneysteve]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/03/10/climate/electric-vehicle-fleet-turnover.html

Less than 1% of vehicles currently on the road are electric.
E-cars could be up to 25% of new cars sold by 2035, but only 13% of all cars would be electric since the older cars would still be around.
By 2050, 60% of new cars could be electric, but the majority of cars on the road would still be gas-powered.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

The rule is all new cars sold from 2030 would have to be electric. So you if you are driving a 2020 toyota corolla you are fine. Or if you buy a car in 2029 then you are fine with a gas car.

[disneysteve]

The rule is all new cars sold from 2030 would have to be electric. So you if you are driving a 2020 toyota corolla you are fine. Or if you buy a car in 2029 then you are fine with a gas car.

Understood, but that NYT link suggests that e-cars might only be as high as 25% of new vehicles sold by 2035. The likelihood of it actually being 100% by 2030 is slim to none. And if just one state bans ICE cars, what happens if you just leave the state to buy your car?

I just don't see a ban on gas cars to be realistic at least in the next couple of decades.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Understood, but that NYT link suggests that e-cars might only be as high as 25% of new vehicles sold by 2035. The likelihood of it actually being 100% by 2030 is slim to none. And if just one state bans ICE cars, what happens if you just leave the state to buy your car?

I just don't see a ban on gas cars to be realistic at least in the next couple of decades.

You won't be allowed to register a gas car bought outside the state in WA state.

[bennkar]

Prices have been coming down, and Tesla has plans to sell a $25k car with ~250 mile driving range by late 2022. Their current biggest seller (Model 3) sells for $39k and it has over 300 mile range. The biggest problem for Tesla (and all other manufacturers) is battery supply. Tesla will be doing a major ramp up on internal battery production in the coming year, but even so they will still not meet demand for a while. Most other auto makers buy batteries from outside suppliers and will be constrained in that area for a while.

I can't say for other manufacturers, but Tesla is in the midst of a major ramp up in production capacity, whereas others are severely limited in production and/or range is limited and/or the cars are still very expensive. Will that change - hopefully.

Worldwide Tesla made 800,000 last year, should make over 1 million this year, and when their new plants come online will make about 3 million cars in 2022. Given Tesla can build a factory from ground breaking to full capacity in about 18 months the assumption is once their new factories are up and running they will make at least 2-3 new plants by 2025 and up their worldwide capacity to 8 million yearly at that point. Will other manufacturers ramp up production enough to meet the remainder of overall demand - we'll see.

What people don't realize is that electric vehicles (EV) are much cheaper to run after the initial expense of buying. Fuel is less expensive, maintenance is negligible. If you are a person that buys cars new, an EV (at least a Tesla EV) is already cheaper to own over the length of ownership. I'm hoping to keep my old current car running for another year or two and then buy an EV new. I suppose I can finance a car purchase now, but I am sorta hoping not to need to do that and this year I am cash flow poor so I am aiming for a retirement present in 2022-23.

[jIM_MI]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-turnover.html

Less than 1% of vehicles currently on the road are electric.
E-cars could be up to 25% of new cars sold by 2035, but only 13% of all cars would be electric since the older cars would still be around.
By 2050, 60% of new cars could be electric, but the majority of cars on the road would still be gas-powered.

Add to this that California already has blackouts/ shortage of electricity
so it would need to ramp up electricity generation while the OEMs ramp up EV production, just a guess, but the OEMs will ramp up production 1000x faster than the government can do anything.

In addition, the cost of the commodities to make battery will sky rocket, invest in them now.

[bennkar]

In addition, the cost of the commodities to make battery will sky rocket, invest in them now.

Possibly, but auto manufacturers are trying to move away from the expensive commodities used in batteries (nickel, cobalt) and instead use Lithium Iron Phosphate batteries in most vehicles (their Semis & top of the line vehicles will still use nickel in batteries however). Also battery recycling will over time majorly cut down mining needs for battery materials. Look up "Redwood Materials" - this company is already making small profits in their initial facilities. When they scale up recycling should be very profitable.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

I see the point of 25% but EV are much cheaper to run. I was just wondering if the costs will drop enough to justify buying them by 2030. I see it as when Honda and Toyota make an accord and camry EV at parity people will en masse make the jump. It is cheaper to run since maintenance is negligible. But the upfront costs? Well $39k is a lot more than a used Camry gotten for 15k. That $25k is a lot of gas and maintenance. What people don't realize is that $40k tesla 3 is not $40k it's more like $43k. Actually that's for the rear wheel for me it prices out at $42,339 plus registration so like $43k. I wouldn't even buy that model I'd want the AWD long range because that's more comparable to my legacy. That is $54k brand new with taxes, fees, and registration. And people buying $43k cars are not people buying the cheap used car market. If the average price of cars is $21k, there are either a lot of people buying cheaper new cars or older used cars.

Put me in that category of people trying to stay under $30k. Most we've spent has been $28k on a used Minivan in 2017. And like many here we've had solid incomes. But at the end of the day it's still a car. And when you drive on average 8k miles a year? Or even 12k? It's not a lot of gas. I can tell you what we spent on gas we average around $2k/year for minivan and $1k for DH sedan. So $26k for Legacy versus $54k that's both new and about 2x the price. So $28k in gas and maintenance assuming 10 years that's $2800 for gas and maintanence. Not bad but 10 years to break even? And I bought new. If it were me I'd have bought used but DH was getting very spoiled when we bought the car. He will tell you himself that it might have even been the last car he buys. So I'm not sure it's a fair comparison because I would have bought used 2 year off lease.

I bought a used minivan for $28k. To have that sort of space which the X doesn't even come close to? Is $100k with taxes and fees where I live. And my minivan just took a dishwasher back to costco. The same dishwasher didn't fit in the X since his boss drives an X and they wanted to see if it would fit. His boss said minivan is very practical. So right there $70k? I can easily do 10 years and not pay $7k/year. But I'm okay with the realization that it's not cool.

But that aside from a purely financial standpoint will EVs be affordable? My friend makes the case by 2030 there will be a lot of used EV on the road so yes people will be buying used EV. He pointed out the Nissan Leaf can be had for $8k used or BMW i3 for $12k. Both small commuter cars. Good points and something I defintiely would consider buying. Actually if it made sense (and it doesn't) i'd probably want to buy a used Leaf or I3 and just have 3 cars. 1 gas sedan, minivan, and cheap ev. FWIW I wish I had a ton of money, I'd be eyeing getting the Audi Etrons or Lucid when they come out. Or even the R1S rivian. But spending that much is a luxury not a necessity. Not sure Tesla wins in cheap or expensive category

[disneysteve]

LAL, I think you raise important points. Upfront cost is more important to most people than operating costs. The most we have ever paid for a car is 26K. The cost of gas is nominal unless the price goes up significantly (which is one way the government could nudge people toward EVs - hike the gas tax).

I haven't looked at the used EV market. I think as the supply of less costly used EVs increases, that may help adoption of EVs quite a bit. People need there to be 15K and 10K and 7K cars readily available for purchase.

[ua_guy]

LAL, I think you raise important points. Upfront cost is more important to most people than operating costs. The most we have ever paid for a car is 26K. The cost of gas is nominal unless the price goes up significantly (which is one way the government could nudge people toward EVs - hike the gas tax).

I haven't looked at the used EV market. I think as the supply of less costly used EVs increases, that may help adoption of EVs quite a bit. People need there to be 15K and 10K and 7K cars readily available for purchase.

Makes me wonder about the day used EV's are easily had for <$10k. Will the batteries need replaced? Will the batteries still be manufactured, or supported by the mfr? Or will a "cheap EV" actually be a misnomer if a sub-$10k buyer has to lease or rent a replacement battery.

[disneysteve]

Makes me wonder about the day used EV's are easily had for <$10k. Will the batteries need replaced? Will the batteries still be manufactured, or supported by the mfr? Or will a "cheap EV" actually be a misnomer if a sub-$10k buyer has to lease or rent a replacement battery.

Yeah, I wonder about the lifespan of the batteries too. I don't know enough about them to comment. And that doesn't just affect used car buyers. It could also be an issue for folks like me who keep our cars long term. My last 2 cars were 14 years old when I replaced them. Do the current batteries last that long? I don't honestly know.