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US Vehicle Supply is Falling amid Tariff fear-buying

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  • US Vehicle Supply is Falling amid Tariff fear-buying

    U.S. vehicle supply falls amid tariff fear-buying

    Autos U.S. vehicle supply is falling amid tariff fear-buying


    Published Wed, Apr 16 20257:00 AM EDTUpdated 2 Hours Ago

    Michael Wayland@MikeWayland
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    Key Points
    • Supplies of new and used vehicles for sale are declining rapidly as consumers flock to stores ahead of potential price increases due to tariffs.
    • The days’ supply of new vehicles – calculated by an estimated daily retail sales rate – dropped from 91 days at the beginning of March to 70 days this month, according to Cox Automotive.
    • There’s concern that the sales could come to a grinding halt once automakers and dealers sell out of their tariff-free inventories.

    In this article
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    Brand new KIA cars are displayed on the sales lot at Serramonte Kia on March 26, 2025 in Colma, California.
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    DETROIT – Supplies of new and used vehicles for sale in the U.S. are declining rapidly as consumers flock to purchase cars and trucks ahead of potential price increases due to tariffs, according to auto dealers and industry analysis.

    The days’ supply of new vehicles – calculated by an estimated daily retail sales rate – dropped from 91 days at the beginning of March to 70 days this month, according to Cox Automotive. Used vehicle days’ supply, which had already been low, declined by four days to 39 days, the company said.

    “Consumers are trying to get ahead of tariffs on imports,” Cox’s chief economist, Jonathan Smoke, said Tuesday during an online update. “The decline in [new] days’ supply was one of the largest drops we’ve seen in several years.”

    That compares with a typical monthly days’ supply move in a normal market of roughly five days to seven days, according to Cox.

    New vehicle sales are running 22% above the seasonally adjusted pace of last year and are up more than 8% on a year-to-date volume basis, Smoke said. In the used vehicle market, Cox estimates sales are “up sharply,” with a 7% increase thus far this year compared with 2024.

    Increased sales are good for the automotive industry, which many analysts expected to be roughly level heading into the year. But there’s concern that the sales could come to a grinding halt once automakers and dealers sell out of their tariff-free inventories.

    Auto advisory firm Telemetry expects the higher costs for production, parts and other factors to result in upward of 2 million fewer vehicles sold annually in the U.S. and Canada, in part due to higher costs and associated price increases. Read more


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    Automakers and suppliers may be able to bear some of the cost increases, but they’re also expected to pass them along to U.S. consumers, which could in turn lower sales, according to analysts.

    Many automakers built up inventories of imported cars and trucks before President Donald Trump’s 25% tariffs on imported vehicles went into effect on April 3. But some have altered imports, held vehicles in ports or completely halted them, as in the case of Jaguar Land Rover.

    General Motors has been strategically increasing some U.S. production, including upping output at a pickup truck plant in Indiana as well as canceling previously announced downtime next month at a facility in Tennessee.

    Ryan Rohrman, CEO of Indiana-based Rohrman Automotive Group, last week said April started off “pretty strong,” signaling a mix of tariff- and fear-purchasing along with improved inventories compared with recent years.

    “Business right now is actually pretty strong,” said Rohrman, whose group has 22 franchises. “March was really good, and it hasn’t slowed down.”

    Automakers Ford Motor and Chrysler parent Stellantis have taken the tariffs as an opportunity to sell down inventories by offering customers “employee pricing” deals.

    Nick Anderson, general manager of a Ford dealership in Missouri, said that unique discount and concern that prices could soon go up in response to tariffs have both helped push price-conscious consumers to his showroom. That’s good for sales but has negatively impacted the store’s gross profits.

    “We’re pacing to match or beat last year,” he said. “The majority of people we’re seeing are definitely more price-conscious. … Our volume is there but the gross is down. It’s just a different type of clientele.”

    Anderson said he’s optimistic about sales this year but “a lot of it will just depend on the next 60 to 90 days — what happens to the tariffs.”

    Trump on Monday said he is looking to “help some of the car companies” but didn’t elaborate on what that could entail.

    Stellantis Chairman John Elkann said during the automaker’s annual meeting Tuesday that he was “encouraged” by Trump’s comment, noting the 25% tariff on imported vehicles and stringent emissions regulations in Europe are putting both car markets “at risk.”
    Brian

  • #2
    I'm not sure why the American Auto Industry is a target of the Trump taxes, but it appears to be. I thought the goal of this whole thing was supposed to protect American industries.

    While it appears great news companies like GM are increasing US Production, they are doing it at the expense of overtime shifts in Indiana while adding a vacancy of production to its other factories in Silao (Mexico) and Oshawa (Canada). So, GM incurs a higher cost for US production, while still having to keep those other factories open, because it isn't going to shutter facilities it spent billions of dollars on based on tweets.

    Other automakers like Audi just aren't shipping new vehicles into the US until this whole disaster gets sorted. Jag/LR pulled out for now and won't be selling any more new cars in the US either.

    This whole trade tax thing is just a hot mess, and it's really unfortunate that American companies are ending up in the crosshairs, let alone all the other great automakers out there.
    History will judge the complicit.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by ua_guy View Post
      I'm not sure why the American Auto Industry is a target of the Trump taxes, but it appears to be.
      The tariffs/taxes directly impact nearly all US industry, not just auto sales. We live in a global economy. Isolationism can't work to anyone's benefit. US businesses need both foreign parts and raw materials and foreign buyers for their products. The tariffs are going to have a huge negative impact on US business and industry.
      Steve

      * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
      * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
      * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by ua_guy View Post
        companies like GM are increasing US Production
        This doesn't avoid the tariff issues though since a significant percentage of parts are imported. Assembling the vehicle in the US is nice but if 35% of the parts come from other countries, the tariffs still force up the prices. And if other countries slow the supply of parts to the US, GM and other US companies may not be able to make vehicles at all.
        Steve

        * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
        * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
        * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

        Comment


        • #5
          Had a similar issue a couple years ago when they were having a big "chip shortage".
          Had to order the pickup truck I am currently driving and it took 12 weeks to get it. A pretty minor inconvenience.

          I would imagine the auto dealers are thrilled as that business has been pretty "flat" for a while.

          We've got GM, Toyota, Stellantis (Chrysler), Subaru and Honda plants all within a couple hours of here.
          All of them are going pretty strong, expanding, hiring, etc. except Stellantis. The nearby Caterpillar plant is also doing a massive expansion.

          Time will tell how this stuff shakes out.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Fishindude77 View Post
            Had a similar issue a couple years ago when they were having a big "chip shortage".
            It is kind of like that but on a far bigger scale. Instead of just trouble getting chips, it's trouble getting all foreign parts and having to pay a lot more for them.
            Steve

            * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
            * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
            * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

            Comment


            • #7
              This is also going to impact maintenance of existing vehicles. Parts are going to be more expensive and potentially harder to obtain.
              Steve

              * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
              * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
              * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Fishindude77 View Post
                Time will tell how this stuff shakes out.
                No, actually, it's damaging to business right now, and these new taxes are already affecting pricing. As a consumer I want the most efficient and cheapest supply chain, and that isn't always what the federal government demands it should be. How we even got to this overreach of the free market in so little time is extremely concerning.
                History will judge the complicit.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Lots of assumptions being made.
                  Every darned thread on here lately turns into gloom and doom, the sky is falling.





                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Fishindude77 View Post
                    Lots of assumptions being made.
                    Every darned thread on here lately turns into gloom and doom, the sky is falling.
                    How is what industry CEO's are saying, the actual heads of the automakers themselves, an "assumption". They're talking about their costs, present and future, and the likely downturn in sales and profitability. Should they not be trusted? Me thinks you are allowing politics to tint your assessment on this one.

                    Maybe a good portion of the sky IS actually falling, which is why it comes up often.
                    History will judge the complicit.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Fishindude77 View Post
                      Time will tell how this stuff shakes out.
                      Yes, in the long run, like years, but right now, today, the impact of this tax hike is already being felt and seen. Perhaps we are making some assumptions about what the future will look like, but the present is crystal clear. Businesses and industries in the US and consumers in the US are already being negatively affected.
                      Steve

                      * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                      * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                      * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Ouch. Another one... Mack/Volvo layoffs due to tariffs.

                        Volvo Group plans to lay off as many as 800 workers at three U.S. facilities, including Mack Trucks, over the next three months due to market uncertainty and demand concerns in the face of President Donald Trump’s tariffs, a spokesperson said on Friday.
                        History will judge the complicit.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          What the administration doesn't grasp is that bringing manufacturing back to the US isn't ever going to happen. Free market dictates otherwise.

                          The stats I've seen say that right now, today, there are about half a million vacant manufacturing jobs in the United States. And that was before the tariffs came along. Americans don't want to work in manufacturing. Companies offshore jobs for a variety of reasons but a big one is to find a viable labor force to do the work that needs to be done. You can build all the factories you want but if you don't have the work force to run them, what good is it?
                          Steve

                          * Despite the high cost of living, it remains very popular.
                          * Why should I pay for my daughter's education when she already knows everything?
                          * There are no shortcuts to anywhere worth going.

                          Comment

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