American Consumers Finally about to Crack?

[bjl584]

The Mighty American Consumer Is About to Hit a Wall, Investors Say (yahoo.com)

[kork13]

I think that the most dramatic factor in the short term will be when student loan payments start coming due again. That's been a nice little holiday for alot of folks, stimulating their spending capacity. But when those payments start back up, it's gonna be a harsh reality check -- spending will almost certainly drop precipitously (and/or the various debt/obligation delinquencies will shoot up).

Of course all of the other factors mentioned will also play significant roles, albeit less visible. I don't want to sound all doom & gloom predicting a recession ... But as with the real estate discussion, some form of showdown is inevitable. It's just a question of exactly when & how severe.

[Jluke]

I didn’t come up with this or fact check it but I saw online where someone showed how we are going through a Silent Depression, where things are actually worse than they were during the Great Depression.

[kork13]

I didn’t come up with this or fact check it but I saw online where someone showed how we are going through a Silent Depression, where things are actually worse than they were during the Great Depression.

I can't imagine what metric or even subjective measure could possibly back up that assessment. Unemployment rates are in the low single digits; deflation doesn't exist; every flavor of domestic industry is productive & profitable; there are few/no food shortages, and there's not a single bread line wrapping around town; we're neither at (major) war nor recovering from it; while any is too much, there isn't mass homelessness & starvation .... I can go on.

While yes, we're in kind of a weird place economically, we're facing nothing remotely like the Great Depression. Anyone who tries to argue that we are is either very poorly informed or completely crazy. THAT would be the very essence of the "doom & gloom" mindset.

[Fishindude77]

Something different this time around is that I don't think those that want work will be out of work.
It will be more driven by ridiculous inflation where their dollars earned aren't going far enough.

A depression these days might mean you may have to cancel your internet service, drop the cable TV plan, quit eating out, go down to one car and pick up some side work.
Don't think you'll see bread lines.

[disneysteve]

I didn’t come up with this or fact check it but I saw online where someone showed how we are going through a Silent Depression, where things are actually worse than they were during the Great Depression.

What an absolutely ridiculous suggestion. Clearly whoever came up with that has no clue what actually occurred during the Great Depression. The really sad part is there are people out there who will believe this and go around spreading their conspiracy theories.

[Jluke]

Found what was presented, not checked

Stats.

Avg income:

1930- $4,800. Adjusted for inflation, that would be $84,000/yr.

2022- $56,000

Gas:

1930- 10 cents/gal. Inflation $1.73

2023- $3.55

New Car:

1930- $860. Inflation $15,000

2023- $48,000

New Home:

1930- $3,900. Inflation $70,000

2023- $416,000.

It’s actually costings American more to live today than the Great Depression. Americans are being squeezed like never before.

American make less and have to spend more compared to the Great Depression.

[disneysteve]

American make less and have to spend more compared to the Great Depression.

What an inane conclusion to make from those numbers. It’s bizarre how people come up with that crap. That’s why so many conspiracy theories circulate. People don’t know how to do any critical thinking. Where did you even find that?

I wasn’t around in 1930 but I don’t need to have been to know that life is far better and easier today than it was back then.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

What an inane conclusion to make from those numbers. It’s bizarre how people come up with that crap. That’s why so many conspiracy theories circulate. People don’t know how to do any critical thinking. Where did you even find that?

I wasn’t around in 1930 but I don’t need to have been to know that life is far better and easier today than it was back then.

actually the average consumer has tech but the lifestyle to be bought with the median income is probably much lower. People had pensions, they had unions, they had a pretty good life on one income. Nowdays it's nowhere close. I can't say I disagree. Even college.

[disneysteve]

actually the average consumer has tech but the lifestyle to be bought with the median income is probably much lower.

Seriously? The lifestyle in 1930 was much higher than today? In 1930, about half of all homes didn't yet have electricity. Many homes, especially in rural areas, didn't yet have running water and indoor plumbing. Antibiotics didn't exist yet. Neither did vaccines. Homes were heated with wood or coal, both of which are very dangerous and unhealthy. Air conditioning certainly wasn't a thing yet. Only about half of all families owned a car. Sure people had pensions and unions but many of them were working in factories doing back-breaking manual labor. Social Security didn't start until 1937. For the homemaker, since women largely didn't work, electric washing machines didn't become common until the 1950s. Doing the laundry took hours of physical labor.

I don't know about the rest of you but I'll take 2023 lifestyle over 1930 any day.

[ua_guy]

I don't fully buy the perspective in the article. I think we are arriving at a soft landing of sorts. Rather than impending doom, the soft landing does look like discretionary spending slows and things start to cool.

"About to crack" - This goes outside the territory of the article, but I feel this in a different way about people in general. People are stressed beyond belief and financially stretched within an inch of their last dollar. It's prevalent in how people in public act and treat each other, how they drive, and how they operate at work. I don't know how this resolves or the pressure lessens, but I wonder if there's some kind of reckoning coming.