How Computers Are Creating a Second Economy Without Workers

[jeffrey]

When the disappointing jobs numbers were reported last week (employers added 120,000 jobs in March, about half the number reported in the two previous months), analysts tripped over themselves looking for an explanation. Of course, jobs numbers are bound to vary, but in my view the long-term trend calls for more jobs to disappear, and the reason is clear as day: the exploding Second Economy.

The Second Economy -- a term the economist Brian Arthur uses to describe the computer-intensive portion of the economy -- is, quite simply, the virtual economy. One of its main byproducts is the replacement of low-productivity workers with computers. It's growing by leaps and bounds, brimming with optimistic entrepreneurs, and spawning a new generation of billionaires. In fact, the booming Second Economy will probably drive much of the economic growth in the coming decades...

How Computers Are Creating a Second Economy Without Workers - Bill Davidow - Business - The Atlantic

[kv968]

It's called efficiency.

This "Second Economy" via computers isn't necessarily anything new. It started as far back as the early 50's with IBM making computers to help scientists run calculations. It reached "real America" in '61 when GM used the first automated robot in an assembly line.

Sure more of our tasks and jobs are going the way of computers but they have been for years:

ATM machines - now you don't need as many tellers
Email - no need for as many postal workers
Barcoding - less cashiers needed for checkout
Automated phone menus (although hated) - less representatives needed

The list goes on and on and unfortunately, as far as some jobs go, it will continue.

[disneysteve]

ATM machines - now you don't need as many tellers

I'm not so sure about this one.

ATMs: Around here, there are far, far, far more physical bank branches than ever before. It isn't unusual to have 3 or 4 different banks in the same block. They pop up practically overnight. Despite ATMs and online banking, for some reason that I've never been able to explain, the number of bricks and mortar banks has multiplied tremendously. I only physically step into a bank maybe twice a year so I have no idea what all of these banks are doing or why people are going to them but it seems to be working for them.

[kv968]

I'm not so sure about this one.

ATMs: Around here, there are far, far, far more physical bank branches than ever before. It isn't unusual to have 3 or 4 different banks in the same block. They pop up practically overnight. Despite ATMs and online banking, for some reason that I've never been able to explain, the number of bricks and mortar banks has multiplied tremendously. I only physically step into a bank maybe twice a year so I have no idea what all of these banks are doing or why people are going to them but it seems to be working for them.

I've noticed a couple smaller savings banks going up around here but not commerical ones. As a matter of fact BoA just recently closed a branch down the street from me (although there were about 4 in a 5 mile radius to begin with).

The banks are probably just trying to get a bigger presence in the area if they're expanding branches. Go into one and you're likely to see only one or two tellers though. I wouldn't know since I haven't stepped into a bank in years.

And not to go off topic, but I noticed this saturation also with pharmacies. There must be at least 7 or 8 of them within a 5 mile radius of me. I know the population is getting older and needs them but they don't make much by way of prescriptions so I don't really understand the logic behind it. All I know is they've been going up all over the place.

[Joan.of.the.Arch]

I was thinking about this yesterday when I phoned the local "call before you dig" service" which notifies 7 utilities to mark their service lines on your property. As soon as I got off the phone, I checked email and had two messages saying that these two utilities no longer served the property. Clearly, no one looked up this info and composed an email. As soon as the clerk pushed his submit key, the connecected computer systems did the data search and immediately spit out either emails to me or work orders to the crew.

Yes, very efficient. I must say, though, the real-life clerk I spoke to was very close to a machine himself.

Update: I just got a phone call from a worker on the site, who tells me there is no such address. He is standing right there looking at it. Now this is not very efficient.

[woodie96]

This kind of goes back to the comment I put on another thread in the general discussion...
It seems like we are "internetting" our people out of jobs, especially the "minimal skills required" labor type of jobs.
In that post I mentioned QVC, but a lot of other companies are laying off the customer service personnel (IE order takers) because so many more people do their shopping online and hit transmit, so there just isn't a need for those types of jobs.

Some smart person will come up with something to get these folks employed, and they will make a mint. I'm just not smart enough to be the one to figure it out.