Long on AMD

[corn18]

They are down 15% since your first post and you're still bullish. Good for you.

[Singuy]

Long on and Tom...i have no problem with it down or up in the short term. AMD goes up and down but it's an upward trend. It is -14 percent today but could be up 10 percent by the end of the week. It was up by 10 percent after earnings just weeks ago and then Trump happened.

[EmptySoother]

Does anyone have numbers on Vega sales? That's their latest GPU that's supposed to grab some market share off of NVDA.

[Singuy]

It is way too early to tell what the Vega sell numbers are like..just assume they are selling 100% of what they make due to miners and freesync buyers. Vega 54 will sell like hot cakes and I don't see vega or Polaris being in stock until Navi comes out. The crypto currency boom should continue until Trump steps down( loose cannon in the white house increases uncertainty which drives up gold and crypto prices).

Rx Vega sales are the least of my worries, in fact I am rooting for AMD to make LESS rx Vega cards due to the increase cost of HBM2 which drives down margins. I much rather them focus on more lucrative enterprises like the AI space, professional computation space, and studio editing space where Vega belongs.

[colby99]

Bears on this stock share a common malady; Look in the rear-view mirror and believe it's the future disease. Prognosis: Incurable.

[Singuy]

Just thought I update.

AMD has been on a losing streak after Q3 ER. People were expecting too much and too fast.

I am still 100% bull on AMD and bought a bunch during the dips.

Currently I have over 130k(yup, over 6 figures in ONE stock) of AMD.
Not for the faint of heart. My cost basis is 12 and I'm down 15k.

2018 will be an amazing year for AMD so for those who are believers, it's a good time to jump on the train.

This is a company that will have a revenue of over 6 billion this year with a market cap of 10 billion currently and a yoy growth of 22-26%. These are number with most of their products not even on the market! Epyc server chips just passed validation, their graphics and laptop chips just came out. Their semi-custom department is booming with recently signing on Intel as their a customer. 2018's revenue is expected to explode.

[tripods68]

I was bored last week so I finally got into Blockchain/Bitcoin game which is considered a highly "speculative" market at this point. No one can predict the future, but if you like to invest into some unknown unproven future get into Blockchain like RIOT.

My only disclaimer: Try not to lose your shirt. Invest only what you can afford to lose.

[Singuy]

Yeah, my exposure to blockchain is actually quite high just by investing into AMD. The market has been pinning blockchain to Nvidia/AMD since the beginning of time. The CEO of AMD just said on CNBC that blockchain requires a massive amount of compute which is a technology she sees to be pretty important in the future. They are going to take a piece of that market.

But yeah it's no where as fun seeing your money grow 20% in a day, or drop 40% in a day..lol

There was an article on Cnbc about how people are using credit cards to buy bitcoin because it's easy money. This is the type of bubble that caused the housing market crash (thinking it's easy money, started to borrow foolishly to get a piece of the pie). I feel uneasy and think the new market crash will probably due to bitcoin since now people are leveraging debt and playing with fire.

[corn18]

Looks like AMD has been doing very well lately. Up 78% YTD. Did you stay in?

[Singuy]

Yes and no. I had almost 300k worth of AMD stocks so I sold a bunch with a 45k profit taking at 15 I still have 100k worth of AMD stocks ATM so I still retained a portion of the run up to 20 but could have been better off if I just stayed to my guns. I just felt having 300k in one stock due to averaging down a bunch in the 9s and 10s was kind of silly going forward.

[rennigade]

Yes and no. I had almost 300k worth of AMD stocks so I sold a bunch with a 45k profit taking at 15 I still have 100k worth of AMD stocks ATM so I still retained a portion of the run up to 20 but could have been better off if I just stayed to my guns. I just felt having 300k in one stock due to averaging down a bunch in the 9s and 10s was kind of silly going forward.

Im not trying to bash you or put what you're doing down...but wasnt the s&p up more than that through that date range...or close to it? You invested $300kish in one stock, which is really risky...or you could have invested in some broad index fund that tracks the s&p and had the same results. Is there some benefit that im missing?

And yes, I get it. Past doesnt predict future, hindsight is 20/20, etc etc.

Either way...thats awesome you're up on that stock. I randomly found some 30 year stats...im not going back to the great depression...30 years should suffice (although none of those years are really relevant since we were talking about a 1 year time frame.)

Data for this Date Range
Dec. 31, 2018 6.47%
Dec. 31, 2017 21.83%
Dec. 31, 2016 11.96%
Dec. 31, 2015 1.38%
Dec. 31, 2014 13.69%
Dec. 31, 2013 32.39%
Dec. 31, 2012 16.00%
Dec. 31, 2011 2.11%
Dec. 31, 2010 15.06%
Dec. 31, 2009 26.46%
Dec. 31, 2008 -37.00%
Dec. 31, 2007 5.49%
Dec. 31, 2006 15.79%
Dec. 31, 2005 4.91%
Dec. 31, 2004 10.88%
Dec. 31, 2003 28.68%

Dec. 31, 2002 -22.10%
Dec. 31, 2001 -11.89%
Dec. 31, 2000 -9.10%
Dec. 31, 1999 21.04%
Dec. 31, 1998 28.58%
Dec. 31, 1997 33.36%
Dec. 31, 1996 22.96%
Dec. 31, 1995 37.58%
Dec. 31, 1994 1.32%
Dec. 31, 1993 10.08%
Dec. 31, 1992 7.62%
Dec. 31, 1991 30.47%
Dec. 31, 1990 -3.10%
Dec. 31, 1989 31.69%
Dec. 31, 1988 16.61%

[corn18]

I am an investor, not a trader. I'm happy we have traders because they do the price discovery for us index investors.

I like this chart. The line represents investors. All the bumpy bits are traders.

[Singuy]

Well AMD was not the best pick for 2017 because it was down for that year. I picked the stock to hold long till 2021 because I believe the stock will 40-50. S@P will not multi bag 4-5x from 10 dollars in 3 years time. So yes, compared to the S&p, AMD was a bad pick only for 2017 since 2018 is proving my thesis correctly and gain substantiallu in just 3 months time and will continue to overperform. So the point is to blow the S&p out of the water. Many of my stocks did like BZUN, SHOP, MTCH, and Amazon. They all x2-3 over one year.

Big risk comes with bigger rewards.

[Singuy]

Just to put some things in perspective, I have invested about 240k total in taxable common stocks and I'm up about 120k total. When I said I have 300k worth of AMD stocks, that is the worth..with unrealized gaines built in. I believe I have about 200k worth of AMD stocks as my cost basis at the time.