Do you think the market will go lower?

[bjl584]

Watching the markets is making me motion sick
I just keep steadily investing each month

[kork13]

Watching the markets is making me motion sick
I just keep steadily investing each month

Yes, this exactly. It's better for me to not pay close attention. I still have weekly purchase orders going into the market to somewhat closely follow the ups & downs, and I'll consider that good enough for now. I fully expect the markets will continue to drift downward, particularly as the Fed continues to raise their lending rate, and until inflation data starts consistently cooling off.

Up-thread in July, I projected (read: wildly guessed) a market bottom in Nov/Dec, with a depressed market through next summer. I still think that remains a fair guess, but obviously we'll only know the truth in hindsight.... And by then it will be too late to fully realize the upside. Thus, DCA remains par for the course.

[Fishindude77]

We've been pulling $4k per month from our IRA (former 401k) for nearly five years now. Have seen some big gains and some big dips, as it sits right now following recent dips we are still up 5% over what we started with. The gains are outpacing our withdrawals and still slightly beating inflation. Good companies find ways to survive and make money despite what obstacles get thrown in their way. So, if you are invested in good companies or good funds you should be OK.

[disneysteve]

We've been pulling $4k per month from our IRA (former 401k) for nearly five years now. Have seen some big gains and some big dips, as it sits right now following recent dips we are still up 5% over what we started with. The gains are outpacing our withdrawals and still slightly beating inflation.

I'm really curious about this.

You are taking out 4K/month. We don't know what % of assets that represents so it's hard to judge. But even after accounting for those withdrawals and 8+% inflation, your account is still growing? Do you mind sharing what investments you hold in that account? Most stock and bond funds are down significantly YTD but it sounds like yours are up 10+% which is fantastic.

[Fishindude77]

I'm really curious about this.

You are taking out 4K/month. We don't know what % of assets that represents so it's hard to judge. But even after accounting for those withdrawals and 8+% inflation, your account is still growing? Do you mind sharing what investments you hold in that account? Most stock and bond funds are down significantly YTD but it sounds like yours are up 10+% which is fantastic.

My statement is a bit incorrect.
The principal is up 5% over what we started with (5) years ago, so technically not really beating inflation. However, when you factor taking $48k annually as well, I'm not complaining.
Several months ago due to strong market conditions we had a couple hundred K more in the account which went by by due to market conditions.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Now is a good time to short sell equities, buy put options, or buy inverse ETFs. In the past I have lost more money using the first two methods of short selling and put options so this go around I'll buy inverse ETFs instead. I think we are no where near the bottom yet.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

My statement is a bit incorrect.
The principal is up 5% over what we started with (5) years ago, so technically not really beating inflation. However, when you factor taking $48k annually as well, I'm not complaining.
Several months ago due to strong market conditions we had a couple hundred K more in the account which went by by due to market conditions.

The bull market was good to retirees and still should have left them in a position of having substantially more than not

[QuarterMillionMan]

I love these down markets. The more red I see the more money I can make.

[btctony]

I love these down markets. The more red I see the more money I can make.

Yeah, I think we have a bit to go before a bottom is confirmed. However, I'm not in the business of selling absolute tops and buying absolute bottoms. Fed funds rate hikes are not close to a stopping point (in my opinion), let alone a reversal. And rightly so. JPOW is trying to fight inflation with a Volckerish style/attitude (perhaps not that harsh and perhaps more drawn out), but it does not happen without pain to the overall economy. I think a bit more pain is on the horizon. I will revisit that opinion when the fed funds rate is at 4.25-4.50. Those who think we are at the latter stages of recession or currently in one right now might get a wake up call sooner or later. 2022 has been a great year to stack cash or use that extra cash to continue dollar cost averaging into assets that one deems desirable. That is a certainty.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Yeah, I think we have a bit to go before a bottom is confirmed. However, I'm not in the business of selling absolute tops and buying absolute bottoms. Fed funds rate hikes are not close to a stopping point (in my opinion), let alone a reversal. And rightly so. JPOW is trying to fight inflation with a Volckerish style/attitude (perhaps not that harsh and perhaps more drawn out), but it does not happen without pain to the overall economy. I think a bit more pain is on the horizon. I will revisit that opinion when the fed funds rate is at 4.25-4.50. Those who think we are at the latter stages of recession or currently in one right now might get a wake up call sooner or later. 2022 has been a great year to stack cash or use that extra cash to continue dollar cost averaging into assets that one deems desirable. That is a certainty.

A lot of my friends who thought they were retiring have pulled OMY until the market turns around. They are now not counting on retiring and instead are looking at making their number which if you were in boring index funds you are still down like 15%

[bjl584]

I just switched careers. I have a 401K that I need to roll over, but I'm letting it ride until it recovers

[disneysteve]

I just switched careers. I have a 401K that I need to roll over, but I'm letting it ride until it recovers

What difference does it make? A rollover isn’t a taxable event. Why not move it to an IRA where you have more control and probably lower expenses?

[QuarterMillionMan]

I love watching the market go lower, my only question is how low can it go? I getting ready to scoop up some Tesla, Neflix, Apple, and maybe Disney too. Everything is on sale, lol.

[kork13]

I love watching the market go lower, my only question is how low can it go? I getting ready to scoop up some Tesla, Neflix, Apple, and maybe Disney too. Everything is on sale, lol.

I don't think I'll buy any new stocks, but I may add some shares to my existing holdings .... when I have the time enough to pay attention & the free cash available to do something about it.

As ever, the market will continue its gyrations. Offhand, my current WAG is that the market will likely remain suppressed until the Fed starts easing up on the Fed Funds Rate (so at least through 2023).

[srblanco7]

Supply chain issues are substantially resolved - but could take a step back or become unstable with the end of China's zero covid policy. The war in Ukraine remains a wild card - though the world has largely adjusted to it's (current) impacts on food & energy markets. The job market remains reasonably strong which will continue to put pressure on wages. The Fed, after initially indicating the inflation was transitory, has made taming inflation its top priority, which could lead them to overshoot with rate increases.

In consideration of these major factors, my (worthless) crystal ball predicts that markets will run flat/slightly down in H1 2023 and will recover somewhat in H2 2023 as the Fed backs off on rate increases. 2023 will end with the markets in slightly positive territory.

That's without considering other wild cards that could impact market performance. And, having been around for a while, it's pretty reasonable to assume that there's always something else...