Volatile Q1 expected?

**bjl584** · 01-24-2022, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by Scallywag View Post

I am wondering if the combination of supply chain woes, limited / reduced growth, Fed action on inflation by rate hikes & pullback from any more QE & margin calls etc are all going to result in a highly volatile Q1, and maybe even Q2?

We're still invested, and staying invested in my IRAs. However, H & I liquidated the small portion of our downpayment that was invested in the market (DUH!). Took a beating in the downpayment fund to the tune of 5K (and absolutely pissed about that) but it was less stressful than the thought of potentially losing more

I'm more concerned about our ongoing investments for Q1. We normally just fund the Roth each Jan & buy for the year, and we've funded them this year also. However, I'm not certain we should buy yet. Yeah, I know you can't time the market but My God! All signs indicate a rate hike & more potential downside.

So, should we just DCA into the market? I know that NO ONE here has a crystal ball but somehow, the idea of lump sum buying just yet worries me.

What do you all think?

Well, the last few times this happened (2008, and 2020) I just kept DCA'ing and ignored the headlines.
I came out a winner both times.

Just keep buying all the way to the bottom

**disneysteve** · 01-24-2022, 10:08 AM

Volatility has been the norm for two years now. Rising rates will continue to weigh on the market, along with all the other stuff. I think DCA is as good a method as it always has been.

**Scallywag** · 01-24-2022, 10:25 AM

Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

Volatility has been the norm for two years now. Rising rates will continue to weigh on the market, along with all the other stuff. I think DCA is as good a method as it always has been.

We've only ever DCA-ed into the 401K (and not by choice). We've always lump sum invested into the ROTH, each January. However, I'm not sure that lump-summing it would be the right strategy for this Jan. I suspect when the Feds go to work to combat inflation, there will be more blood bath in the markets. I already see that the NASDAQ is inching back up. I don't know, I'm wary of going in at all in this particular market.

**disneysteve** · 01-24-2022, 11:04 AM

Investing every January is DCA too. It’s just once a year instead of once a month. Over 30-40 years, it averages out.

**disneysteve** · 01-24-2022, 12:10 PM

Wow. Market closed up after being down 1,000 points. What were you saying about volatility?

**LivingAlmostLarge** · 01-24-2022, 12:31 PM

I just DCA every january for 15 years for Roth IRA for us. We lump sum it. This is the second time, in 2020 we invested and the market tanked in March 2020 I sold my VTI and bought instead VOO and QQQ and made a large amount on it. I also dropped another $150k into the market and bought more ETFs and I'm still up today from then.

I don't want to repeat this but why are you investing your Down Payment fund if you are sweating $5k? I only ask because you are panic selling over $5k (which is fine) but realize if it keeps inching down and you lose more?

If it is something you want to preserve why are you investing it? It should only be money you are willing to lose. I wanted to die this morning when I woke up and my portfolio was down a lot in one day we are talking 6 figures. It ended the day up, who knew. I swallowed hard because we are down a lot for the month. but what can you do? You are supposed to do nothing.

But you are selling over $5k. That could be a swing in a day. And if that's true, perhaps you need to reconsider your investment of your Down Payment Fund. Really consider if it should be invested.

**kork13** · 01-24-2022, 12:56 PM

DCA is almost always a winning plan. I mentioned it in another thread, but I've got $30k in cash savings that I've decided to send into the market. However, I've been expecting significant market volatility for the duration of this pandemic mess & all its effects.... Not changing that forecast. So I'm going to DCA that cash in $5k/wk, just to protect myself somewhat from all of the volatility.

**Scallywag** · 01-24-2022, 01:14 PM

Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

Wow. Market closed up after being down 1,000 points. What were you saying about volatility?

That's not volatile enough for you?!

**disneysteve** · 01-24-2022, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by Scallywag View Post

That's not volatile enough for you?!

That’s crazy volatility. I was shocked when I checked after 4 and saw green. Wasn’t expecting that. It shows how everyone was getting all stressed during the day and in the end it was right back where it started.

**rennigade** · 01-24-2022, 02:18 PM

Well I put $500 in Roth and $500 in vtsax thinking it would be down massively. Any time I invest the opposite happens of what I'm hoping so you're welcome everyone.

**corn18** · 01-24-2022, 03:42 PM

Just another bump in the road. Good luck trying to time them.

**Scallywag** · 01-24-2022, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by disneysteve View Post

That’s crazy volatility. I was shocked when I checked after 4 and saw green. Wasn’t expecting that. It shows how everyone was getting all stressed during the day and in the end it was right back where it started.

Dead cat bounce anyone?

**bjl584** · 01-25-2022, 06:54 AM

Originally posted by Scallywag View Post

Dead cat bounce anyone?

maybe
I don't think we have found the bottom yet
after the Fed meeting tomorrow the markets might have a clearer picture of where to go

**disneysteve** · 01-25-2022, 07:13 AM

Originally posted by bjl584 View Post

maybe
I don't think we have found the bottom yet
after the Fed meeting tomorrow the markets might have a clearer picture of where to go

The one thing the market hates more than anything is uncertainty.

Volatile Q1 expected?