LOST THOUSANDS in $TSLA today

[Scallywag]

Scallywag,
I don't think anyone said--sell all your holdings. There were several suggestions to reorganize your holdings so that your 529's so that money that is the short term is not as exposed to potential volatile swings that seem to cause you lots of distress. There were several suggestions to put the more volatile holdings in the ABLE account that you don't expect to need for 40 years (or even put it in non tax advantaged account so that if there are losses you can tax loss harvest).

But, it seems like any move you make is going to cause you lots of distress.

And thank God I didn't sell all my holdings but liquidated quite a bit. I kept trying to say that i had a long window with my son and only got negative feedback. I know what works for my family and i appreciate the time everyone took to respond but I was in a bad place and should never have vented here when I was down (esp given my past experience here in another thread)

[Scallywag]

THe quick recoveries of 2008/9 and 2020 seem to be creating recency bias. Not all recoveries are that quick. Risk an individual assessment. That's why I'm 50/50 right now and my buddies are 100/0. They know what can happen and they are ok with it. I wish them no ill will and wish I had 38% returns this year.

How do they know what can happen? You sound bitter now.

[Scallywag]

I never really understood this portfolio drop 50% the day after you retire mentally. Say that happens, and it takes 2 years to recover..and we know it always recover..does it matter? Were you going to cash out 100% of your money when you retire? Why not just sell shares for living expenses only and leave the rest in the market? Makes no sense to cash out 100% anytime, let alone the day after a gigantic 50% market crash. If your retirement last you another 20 years, that is the amount of time your stocks can still remain in the market which means plenty time to recover. You dollar cost averaged in you should dollar cost average out.

Never understood that "when I'm 65, I can't afford another market crash"..why because you were going to die at 66 after cashing out everything and spend it on hookers and blow?

I feel like there are so many conventional wisdoms that gets it all wrong. Like you shouldn't be so risky near retirement and should just move everything to bonds...or diversify your portfolio as much as you can like an etf if you were going to buy individual stocks.

It hasn't always taken only 2 years to retire. But if your only source of income in retirement is your retirement account and it collapses 50%, then how will you fund your lifestyle, unless your nest egg is north of a few million dollars or your lifestyle is bare bones in the middle of nowhere?

[Singuy]

THe quick recoveries of 2008/9 and 2020 seem to be creating recency bias. Not all recoveries are that quick. Risk an individual assessment. That's why I'm 50/50 right now and my buddies are 100/0. They know what can happen and they are ok with it. I wish them no ill will and wish I had 38% returns this year.

This is where we disagree. Times are changing and the ease of getting involved with the equity markets during a time frame of no alternatives will always cause quick recoveries. This is now the norm, not the exception. Of course I change my outlook depending on the circumstances. If Covid's flash recovery doesn't prove this I don't know what will.

[Scallywag]

This is where we disagree. Times are changing and the ease of getting involved with the equity markets during a time frame of no alternatives will always cause quick recoveries. This is now the norm, not the exception. Of course I change my outlook depending on the circumstances. If Covid's flash recovery doesn't prove this I don't know what will.

I think precious metals (esp silver) is a good alternative as is real estate. But you're right - with low / negative yields in savings & bonds, stocks seem extremely attractive despite lofty valuations.

Do you expect a correction post election depending on who wins?

[corn18]

This and the other thread will devolve into what 99.9% of all market predicting threads always do: no one knows nothin'. CNBC has made a living off of this rhetoric. And people keep tuning in. You're right, I'm right, we're all right. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. We won't know for sure until 2050+.

[Singuy]

I think precious metals (esp silver) is a good alternative as is real estate. But you're right - with low / negative yields in savings & bonds, stocks seem extremely attractive despite lofty valuations.

Do you expect a correction post election depending on who wins?

Correction risk comes in the form of Trump contesting or not transferring power peacefully. Biden win has been priced in.

[corn18]

The constitution has provisions for contested elections. If a President has not been elected by 20 Jan, 2021, the Speaker of the House becomes President until the Senate picks a new President by a simple majority vote. Doesn't matter if the election results are hung up in court battles. Trump can sue all he wants, he will not be President on 20 Jan if the electoral college has not chosen him or the election results are tied up in court. Period, dot, end of story. I wish the press covered this more.

[Singuy]

This and the other thread will devolve into what 99.9% of all market predicting threads always do: no one knows nothin'. CNBC has made a living off of this rhetoric. And people keep tuning in. You're right, I'm right, we're all right. Even a stopped clock is right twice a day. We won't know for sure until 2050+.

Pretty sure your portfolio will be zero if you are only right twice because the market is not a friendly place. Why only 5% of investors can beat the S&P? They have to right constantly. Even a Big Short guy Steve Eisman got screwed so hard shorting Tesla.

[Singuy]

The constitution has provisions for contested elections. If a President has not been elected by 20 Jan, 2021, the Speaker of the House becomes President until the Senate picks a new President by a simple majority vote. Doesn't matter if the election results are hung up in court battles. Trump can sue all he wants, he will not be President on 20 Jan if the electoral college has not chosen him or the election results are tied up in court. Period, dot, end of story. I wish the press covered this more.

Oh not saying Trump is not going to leave because he can be jailed for trespassing. I am saying the amount of social unrest he can cause during the transition period till Jan 20th in which he can rally up his Proud Boys to do stupid things while refusing to send in the national guard. So it's going to be Proud Boys vs Swat if that ever comes if a civil war was attempted.

My friend is a manager at a rifle manufacture for M4 Carbines. He said they went from making 8000 barrels a month to 35000 barrels a month since the pandemic and have sold everything before they hit retail. So it'll be a period where massive amount of fire arms are dumped into the civilian population as if there's a war coming or something.

[Scallywag]

Oh not saying Trump is not going to leave because he can be jailed for trespassing. I am saying the amount of social unrest he can cause during the transition period till Jan 20th in which he can rally up his Proud Boys to do stupid things while refusing to send in the national guard. So it's going to be Proud Boys vs Swat if that ever comes if a civil war was attempted.

My friend is a manager at a rifle manufacture for M4 Carbines. He said they went from making 8000 barrels a month to 35000 barrels a month since the pandemic and have sold everything before they hit retail. So it'll be a period where massive amount of fire arms are dumped into the civilian population as if there's a war coming or something.

Now that's really scary. Maybe we should all arm ourselves because it looks like things could get quite ugly if Biden wins.

[cypher1]

My friend is a manager at a rifle manufacture for M4 Carbines. He said they went from making 8000 barrels a month to 35000 barrels a month since the pandemic and have sold everything before they hit retail. So it'll be a period where massive amount of fire arms are dumped into the civilian population as if there's a war coming or something.

Nah, after a couple of years the market will be saturated for used supply once pandemic slows down. Eventually it will be a buying opportunity as most consumers won't want to keep as they probably got due to an emotional reaction as many I already know many around me did. While I already own one AR-15 carbine, and building another with my stripped lower, nothing wrong with collecting more down the road. And no, I'm not some alt right, whiskey tango, good ol' boy, which I'm sure a bunch of readers would assume. While still a novice, I just happen to enjoy shooting for hobby, and believe in the right to defend myself at my home by any means necessary.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Sounded overly emotional to me. If you don't think you are then do what corn says. Write down what you are going to do. I am going to guess it's not that simple. A depression era stock market of 10 years would probably cause you to feel like crap and then blame everyone else. But if you are doing well it's your success.

[Scallywag]

Sounded overly emotional to me. If you don't think you are then do what corn says. Write down what you are going to do. I am going to guess it's not that simple. A depression era stock market of 10 years would probably cause you to feel like crap and then blame everyone else. But if you are doing well it's your success.

You're a complete stranger to me. You attacked me before about "choosing to live in a HICOL area" and I let it go. I am allowed a vent but you have zero business attacking people when you yourself are trigger happy with your investments. You also said you have an IEP for your kids? Are those kids are gonna be dependent on your nest egg for life as mine unfortunately is? I am hoping not but nice try attempting an equivalence there.

A 10 yr Depression? Is that what your crystal ball is telling you now? And did you see where I said i have a 40 yr time horizon? So it doesn't matter, lady.

Oh and if my posts are triggering you, you can block me on the site (hoping that's an option here). Every single time I vent you esp love jumping and punching me when I am already down. What the freak did I ever do to you?