Brexit! Watch out!!!

[Jluke]

There are different classes of stocks. Not all stocks move in the same direction. MO happens to be one of those safety stocks where investors go to when things are crazy.

There are certain stocks to buy if you believe the brexit is temporarily depressing those values. But if you truely believe in that, why not go into options? Way better deal for you on correct predictions.

Thanks for providing those thoughts. I don't feel smart enough to participate in options trading - I've done some reading but it confuses me. Shorting, covered calls, etc - right?

[sv2007]

Thanks for providing those thoughts. I don't feel smart enough to participate in options trading - I've done some reading but it confuses me. Shorting, covered calls, etc - right?

Short is not options; writing covered calls is. If one is truely convinced that he knows where the market is going to be, then he'd definitely will want to play the options market. However, I think only insiders know where things will go (well, kind of know anyway).

Useful for hedging; just another tool available to the trader. It's nice to at least know what's available to you; otherwise, you are playing with an arm tied to your back.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

I left everything we had invested put. It was boring, we may roll the 401k over soon though. We need to look into things. And we're super heavy into cash right now so we got super lucky. I might add since I left our taxable account invested my DH said it was my choice to not cash out January 1st and we've lost money. Oh well.

[DaveInPgh]

I just spent a couple weeks working on our retirement plan and I am not going to make any changes anytime soon. My bi-monthly contributions will continue to be allocated just as I set them last week. I also hope to make bi-monthly contributions to my taxable account into Fidelity 500 Index fund.

That was the plan I came up with and that is the plan I am going to follow.

[Randomsaver]

Look at it this way, if you go to Las Vegas and bets on something that loses 10% of the time, should you be majorly surprised if you lose?

If I'm winning 90% of the time, yes, I'd be majorly surprised if I lose.

[disneysteve]

if you go to Las Vegas and bets on something that loses 10% of the time, should you be majorly surprised if you lose?

If I'm winning 90% of the time, yes, I'd be majorly surprised if I lose.

Randomsaver, if you are in a casino playing a game where you lose 10% of the time, you are going to get hosed. Think of it this way, for every $1.00 you bet you win back 90% or $0.90. So the overall return is going to be negative. It won't take long to burn through your bankroll.

[Singuy]

Randomsaver, if you are in a casino playing a game where you lose 10% of the time, you are going to get hosed. Think of it this way, for every $1.00 you bet you win back 90% or $0.90. So the overall return is going to be negative. It won't take long to burn through your bankroll.

Think there's something wrong with that calculation.

One have to define "winning" first at the casino ..is "winning" doubling your initial investment?..or it is 10x your initial investment?

If you can double your money 9/10 times, you are definitely in the positive.

I don't think randomsaver is referring to winning back 90% of his investment, but winning 2x(or whatever number) of his investment 90% of the time..you get better odds playing the slots with a 97% payout if it's the former.

[disneysteve]

Think there's something wrong with that calculation.

One have to define "winning" first at the casino ..is "winning" doubling your initial investment?..or it is 10x your initial investment?

If you can double your money 9/10 times, you are definitely in the positive.

I don't think randomsaver is referring to winning back 90% of his investment, but winning 2x(or whatever number) of his investment 90% of the time..you get better odds playing the slots with a 97% payout if it's the former.

Correct. In the casino, when they say a game has a 97% payout, that means if you bet $100, the odds are that you will win back $97, so a loss of $3.

If you can find a casino game where you win 90% of your bets, let me know. I'll be there with a nice big stack of cash as fast as I can.

[sv2007]

If I'm winning 90% of the time, yes, I'd be majorly surprised if I lose.

I guess you don't buy insurance of any kind then since most things people insure against are pretty remote: house burns down, car stolen, airplane crash >

With good planning, almost nothing should come as a surprise. 10% possibility is not small for me so it wouldn't come as a surprise; it will be planned for.

[tripods68]

I don't think anyone can consistently outperform the S&P 500 without assuming greater than market risk.

Stay boring, Stay consistent. Boring WINS!

[sv2007]

I don't think anyone can consistently outperform the S&P 500 without assuming greater than market risk.

Stay boring, Stay consistent. Boring WINS!

SP500 is assuming higher than market risk by definition.