Anybody buying on this downturn?

[Like2Plan]

I decided to buy 3 shares of DIS this morning and then however much (about) $300 will buy tomorrow. I think DIS will probably go down after the earnings are announced (tomorrow).

[kork13]

I think the airlines & air travel themselves will generally survive, but their profits will suffer dramatically until the restrictions subside. I'm flying my family down to AZ as part of my move with the military, and they're leaving empty every other seat. In a standard 737 with 3 seats on each side of the aisle, the middle seats are all empty. Great for flying with 2&4 y/o kids, but bad for profits (and thus, stock value).

Perhaps I'll buy some more JETS as well... Currently have 120 shares, average basis of $13.50/sh. If tomorrow/future days continue to drop, I'll likely end up snatching up a few more shares.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

I have 100 shares of jets at $12.08. I wonder if I should buy more

[disneysteve]

I have 600 shares. I put in an order to get 100 more at $12.50. It doesn't look like it will get there, or at least not today, but I'll leave the order open. I'm okay either way.

It almost got there today. It dropped as low as $12.60 so not quite. We'll see what happens tomorrow.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

I captured some gains and losses about a month ago and reset by selling vti for voo and QQQ. It's going gangbusters. Anyway I still don't get how we see so many layoffs for uber 20%, lyft 17%, airbnb 25% weworks, etc and yet the stock market is going only higher. It seems to be rallying for a bigger push up.

I mean I read the 2017 TCJA made the corporate rate 21% and that cause companies to have more cash to do stock buybacks and increase the value of stocks pushing the stock market higher. But at the same time, I thought the stock market was also pushed higher with people buying and spending money. And how will that work out if people are out of work, and it doesn't seem "temporary" and they might be digging into serious holes with perhaps paycuts. How do we have normal consumer spending when okay some of the 33M people will go back to work, but they are already behind on bills? When they might have to take reduced hours or reduced salary?

[Like2Plan]

And, another "shows what I know about investing" post. My big play was 3 shares before the DIS earnings report was released and 3 shares after. My theory was when the report was released with big losses that the share price would go down. But, I paid a total of $0.52 more for the 3 shares I purchased after the earnings report was released. I think the share price was helped when the opening of Disneyland Shanghai was announced. Now, maybe Disney World will open in July? The share price is even higher today. So, I guess it will take longer to reach my ultimate goal.

Disney has invested huge amounts in new attractions in the theme parks and they were just on the brink of being able to see the payoff. Covid-19 has not made me want to go to the parks any less. I guess we have to see how it goes in Shanghai.

[disneysteve]

maybe Disney World will open in July?

Disney World is on track to open June 1. Disney Springs is partially reopening May 20. They haven't said anything about cancelling June reservations, which I think they would have done by now if they were going to.

[Like2Plan]

Disney World is on track to open June 1. Disney Springs is partially reopening May 20. They haven't said anything about cancelling June reservations, which I think they would have done by now if they were going to.

That is really good news. I just cancelled a reservation I held for June at Disneyland-- different state and different reopening rules, but they haven't had a lot of guidance. I think Disney World will reopen before Disneyland.

[Scallywag]

Question is: how many will have the disposable income to visit Disney in June?

[disneysteve]

Question is: how many will have the disposable income to visit Disney in June?

Most will.

Despite the headlines and doom and gloom, the unemployment rate among folks with a college education is only 8%. That's certainly higher than it was a few months ago but it's hardly catastrophic. The people most affected by the furloughs and lay offs are the lower income and less educated people, and they aren't the ones typically going to WDW anyway.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Most will.

Despite the headlines and doom and gloom, the unemployment rate among folks with a college education is only 8%. That's certainly higher than it was a few months ago but it's hardly catastrophic. The people most affected by the furloughs and lay offs are the lower income and less educated people, and they aren't the ones typically going to WDW anyway.

You think so? I wonder if people even those with college educations who are nervous about layoffs or are part of layoffs will spend money when they are worried? There are those not worried and those worried. I mean look at uber, lyft, and weworks all had a lot of layoffs last week. I think there are tons more like boeing, etc that will be happening if it didn't already start. And airlines like united are saying in October after the PPP expires they will be layoffing people. So people who are already aware their companies are in trouble, would you go on vacation?

My neighbors are college educated, she was laid off in January and he is a contractor for DIS. He thought he would get furloughed in April but it was his manager who was a "regular" employee not contractor who got furloughed! But the contractors intact and workers not. And who knows what's going to happen? He's a project manager for DIS and he just started in March. I don't see them spending any excess money anytime soon.

[disneysteve]

You think so? I wonder if people even those with college educations who are nervous about layoffs or are part of layoffs will spend money when they are worried?

Sure, if you have an unstable job you might not be planning a vacation, but again, the rising unemployment greatly disproportionately affects folks lower on the economic scale. The unemployment rate for those with a college degree is 8%; for those without a degree it's 21%. Big difference.

As for Disney World specifically, there are many thousands of people who can go without spending much money. Locals, for one. I know plenty of people who live in Florida and go to WDW regularly. They have annual passes. They don't need airfare. They don't need a hotel. They can just drive over and go enjoy themselves any time they want. Heck, if they are laid off, they're free to go every day if they want to.

I also know plenty of people outside of Florida, myself included, who have annual passes. We can load up the car, drive down, get a cheap room offsite, and have our usual vacation without spending a fortune. I have tons of friends who can't wait for the parks to reopen so they can head down there.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

good point about all the locals. But I think the rates of unemployment to bachelor's level jobs is coming. Or they may give a paycut or no bonus. I know quite a few without bonuses this year. And that bonus pays for vacations.

[disneysteve]

good point about all the locals. But I think the rates of unemployment to bachelor's level jobs is coming. Or they may give a paycut or no bonus. I know quite a few without bonuses this year. And that bonus pays for vacations.

I'm certainly not suggesting that having a degree spares you from any of the pain of what's going on. Even the current 8% unemployment rate is a lot higher than it was a few months back, and you're probably right that there is more to come. You're also right that there may be cutbacks even among those still employed like smaller or no bonuses. People have also seen investment losses. Business owners have seen their businesses shut down so even though they still have their job they may not have their income.

But Disney World is an international destination. People come from everywhere. I don't think they will have any trouble filling the place to whatever capacity they set when they reopen even if international travel is still limited.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

That's true. You might also have a point that there are also those who maybe once traveled to europe and asia who will go local and WDW will head up the list because we don't want to go international anymore. Or are afraid of flying that far.