9/30. Anyone else shorting the market?

[bigdaddybus]

Just curious if anyone on here is shorting the market with the possible govt. shutdown? If so, what to you trade?

I purchased SDS (October) and (November) calls on 9/26 and 9/27 in my trading account. Also holding quite a bit of the GLD, which tends to perform well with market volatility.

I still own target date retirement funds, but times like this I can't help but trade the market

[QuarterMillionMan]

Just before the close of business on 9/27/13, I bought the ipath S & P short term volatility index ETF, VXX at $14.16 a share in anticipation of the possible gov. shut down. Here is a screenshot. On 9/30/13 at the opening bell VXX is $14.81. This is a risky trade and I wouldn't recommend this move except for those who have a high risk tolerance.


The Encana I had bought at $20 previously, I'm regretting that buy. I may buy more GLD today with my available cash. Not sure yet though.

[bigdaddybus]

thanks for sharing.

I went with:
SDS 39.00 OCT calls at .25 ea (50)
SDS 38.00 NOV calls at .91 ea (28)

Not a huge amount of money, but $3500 I can afford to loose as I fully realized the risk going in.

Oct calls currently trading in the .38-.43 range
Nov calls currently trading in the 1.05 - 1.13 range

like usual, I can pick a winner. Like usual, I never know how long to hold them.

[feh]

Just curious if anyone on here is shorting the market with the possible govt. shutdown?

Nope.

[kv968]

thanks for sharing.

I went with:
SDS 39.00 OCT calls at .25 ea (50)
SDS 38.00 NOV calls at .91 ea (28)

Not a huge amount of money, but $3500 I can afford to loose as I fully realized the risk going in.

Oct calls currently trading in the .38-.43 range
Nov calls currently trading in the 1.05 - 1.13 range

like usual, I can pick a winner. Like usual, I never know how long to hold them.

I'd see if you could make a spread out of the OCT calls by selling the 42 call for around $0.11-0.12. That would drop the outlay for the calls by about $550 and the S&P would have to drop about 15% in a month to hit the short strike (SPY around $155) where there's support.

Not impossible but better chance of making more money if you intend on holding that trade longer.

Or of course you could just sell it now around $0.35-0.40 and walk with $600-$700

[bigdaddybus]

I dont intend to hold this long enough to make a spread. Though my broker friend is always encouraging me to do so.

Like I said yesterday, I can often pick a good trade, not so good at getting out of them.

[KTP]

I just closed out my short Tesla position because it was going against me.

Doing it as a spread saved me losses. I had purchased Oct 19 expiration $190 puts and sold against them Oct 4 expiration $180 puts, for a net debit price of $8. I did this when the stock was $182. Today it was $193 but because the Oct 4 put was nearly out of time I was able to exit the spread for $8.10. I learned my lesson on Tesla...people want high priced cars and high priced stock.

[KTP]

I just closed out my short Tesla position because it was going against me.

Doing it as a spread saved me losses. I had purchased Oct 19 expiration $190 puts and sold against them Oct 4 expiration $180 puts, for a net debit price of $8. I did this when the stock was $182. Today it was $193 but because the Oct 4 put was nearly out of time I was able to exit the spread for $8.10. I learned my lesson on Tesla...people want high priced cars and high priced stock.

ARGH I SUCK!

The day, I mean the day after I close out this short position a video of a Tesla on fire emerges and the stock drops 7%!!!

I could have make thousands...

[bigdaddybus]

Sounds like something I would do.

Sold the NOV calls for 1.20 for a 28% gain after expenses. holding on to the OCT calls for a bit longer

[QuarterMillionMan]

I admire KTP's & bigdaddybus' transparency putting forth their holdings, not many people are willing to put forth their positions out exposing their potential losses. Sometimes we win some and sometimes we lose some but sometimes S*xt happens. Hopefully your next trade will be profitable.

[bigdaddybus]

Thanks for the feedback

Today worked out well, sold the Oct calls for 100% gain at .50. When I got the alert of the sale I put a buy order in for SDS OCT $39 calls at .35 and bought 55 ate the market rose at the end of the day.

Currently sitting on $2000 worth of calls that are mostly profit from the previous trades this week. I still believe the market is overbought and and the combo of the shutdown/debt ceiling make for a good opportunity to make some money.

[KTP]

I admire KTP's & bigdaddybus' transparency putting forth their holdings, not many people are willing to put forth their positions out exposing their potential losses. Sometimes we win some and sometimes we lose some but sometimes S*xt happens. Hopefully your next trade will be profitable.

I am just playing around with a few stocks in a fun money account (less than $100,000 there). I would not recommend anyone do active trading with their main retirement funds.

I have beaten the market in that account this year by a bit (it is up 42% and I think the regular market is up 18% or so) but it is all luck. I hit a few good stocks and did some good covered calls.

I lost quite a bit on mining stocks last year. One stock I had, TC (Thompson Creek) is down about 50% from where I purchased it. I really thought moly was going to stay above $15 a pound back then. It is used in so many things.

[bigdaddybus]

Today I sold all remaining SDS OCT calls and got into some NOV SDS calls.

I'm done trading OCT calls with only 8 trading days left so I am moving to NOV calls to continue trading on the market slowdown.

The main reasons I am still trading based on the market slowdown is.
1. the Presidents hour long speech on refusing to negotiate today accomplished nothing
2. The trading volume is still light and a selloff is still probable (IMO)
3. all the money I have invested in shorting the market was earned by shorting the market, so my initial investment +25% return is off the table.

[QuarterMillionMan]

I'm looking to short SODA (Soda Stream). It is currently about $60 a share. They manufacture the device that allows a person to make their own soda. I liken it to the snow cone machine fad when it first came out. However, I'm hesitant to execute because my losses could be significant if I'm wrong.