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Does anybody understand Qualcomm?

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  • Does anybody understand Qualcomm?

    QCOM

    I thought it would be a good investment and that the company would ride a little bit of Apple's success -- we were sure that QCOM chip would be in the new iphone as well (and it is).
    And it is pretty much in almost all cell phones.

    So I'm not sure why the stock has never recovered to its April heights.

    Any insights from smarter people?

    I'm holding it, my break even point is $67.2.
    I would have cut my losses, but 1) I don't understand why they are not doing well and 2) Ironically, out of all of my investments, the only 2 that are "loosers" (QCOM and NOK) are in ROTH of all places, so I can't even write anything off against my winners.
    Last edited by Nika; 10-03-2012, 12:54 PM.

  • #2
    Playin' every angle of this Apple thing huh?

    I'm not "smarter" but I'll give you my insights...

    Everyone knows Qualcomm is a quasi-play on Apple so the valuations got a little high. Now the semi-conductor sector isn't doing so well and aren't projecting well either (i.e. Intel) so people are starting to get a little scared.

    I've also heard that there's some worry about what their current numbers will be due to some Apple supply chain problems with the iPhone 5. Who knows? Their earnings call is Nov. 7th so it'll all get a little clearer then. Although that's not much help for you now. They posted earnings that exceeded expecations in the 2Q and the stock fell over 6% (after you bought it). Then they met expecations the last quarter and it went up ~%4. It'll all be about forward guidance if you ask me.

    IMO, if you bought it as a longer-term holding, I'd still hold onto it even though you unfortunately bought in at the top. It's got good fundamentals and may just be experiencing a slow-down due to overall ecomomic conditions but should be ok as longer-term hold. It might get dicey in the short-term but overall it should do well.

    Nokia on the other hand...
    The easiest thing of all is to deceive one's self; for what a man wishes, he generally believes to be true.
    - Demosthenes

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    • #3
      IMO, if you bought it as a longer-term holding, I'd still hold onto it even though you unfortunately bought in at the top. It's got good fundamentals and may just be experiencing a slow-down due to overall ecomomic conditions but should be ok as longer-term hold. It might get dicey in the short-term but overall it should do well.

      Nokia on the other hand...
      Yeah... Nokia I bought for short-term speculation due to volatility. That was a mistake. I should only speculate with stocks that I am know will do well long term. But hey, stock market is not about reason -- do you remember when RIMM, which is clearly dying, had a good bump in price just because the amount of their losses was not as huge as everyone expected? So go figure public logic...

      I did not sink to much into NOK. just $1035. Shall I hope that they too did not loose as much money as expected? Nokia will hang on to the last -- they are a phone company and there is nothing else they can do, they will keep trying to survive. But I will never break even on that one ($5.15).

      However, selling it now will do me no good since I cannot re-invest the money into anything else -- I will only free up $500, and considering $4x2 commission to sell and to buy anything, really, what can I do with it? This is in the same ROTH account as QCOM, which I cannot sell now, and I have already maxed out ROTH for this year, so I can't add more money. And I can't write off the loss. So I am pretty much stuck here for now and no good reason to sell NOK until I sell QCOM or can put more money into the ROTH in 2013.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by Nika View Post
        Yeah... Nokia I bought for short-term speculation due to volatility. That was a mistake. I should only speculate with stocks that I am know will do well long term. But hey, stock market is not about reason -- do you remember when RIMM, which is clearly dying, had a good bump in price just because the amount of their losses was not as huge as everyone expected? So go figure public logic...

        I did not sink to much into NOK. just $1035. Shall I hope that they too did not loose as much money as expected? Nokia will hang on to the last -- they are a phone company and there is nothing else they can do, they will keep trying to survive. But I will never break even on that one ($5.15).

        However, selling it now will do me no good since I cannot re-invest the money into anything else -- I will only free up $500, and considering $4x2 commission to sell and to buy anything, really, what can I do with it? This is in the same ROTH account as QCOM, which I cannot sell now, and I have already maxed out ROTH for this year, so I can't add more money. And I can't write off the loss. So I am pretty much stuck here for now and no good reason to sell NOK until I sell QCOM or can put more money into the ROTH in 2013.
        I remember awhile back we were talking on here about Nokia when it was around that price. I was thinking about getting into it myself for a short-term trade if it fell, but my procrastination finally helped and it kinda fell off my radar so I never did. They're projecting worse earnings for them this quarter than last so maybe they'll do a RIMM and bounce off of "not as bad as expected" numbers. They beat last quarter by a penny and it popped over 7% so maybe you'll get the same this time around. It might at least get back to low $3's and you can decide then.

        It's a shame you're stuck and can't take the loss and/or reinvest. Hey, if you want to sell and gamble the $500 you could cash out and try a Netflix put or something. I see it popped up nicely today.

        At least your Apple call is doing better.
        The easiest thing of all is to deceive one's self; for what a man wishes, he generally believes to be true.
        - Demosthenes

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