I have been commanded to speculate: what to do?

[KTP]

If I had to pick one "gamble" right now, it would be microsoft stock options.

The stock is trading at $25. I am 70% sure that it will be trading at $27+ by dec. It is so ridiculously undervalued compared to everything else in the tech market.

If you could leverage a small amount of money by buying some options that expire jan 1, 2011, I think there is a 80-90% chance you would be in the money before jan 1, 2011. I don't know how these odds (which I really just pulled out of my rear) compare to video poker though. The video poker still might be better (and more fun).

[disneysteve]

I don't know how these odds (which I really just pulled out of my rear) compare to video poker though. The video poker still might be better (and more fun).

Properly played with optimal strategy, 9/6 jacks or better has a house edge of 0.46%. If you are playing with a progressive royal flush jackpot, the house edge can be even lower or even turn negative (meaning the player actually has a statistical advantage) depending on the amount of the jackpot.

[Scanner]

DS,

What is 9/6 Jacks? I went to the website and didn't find it. Is that a variation of blackjack? YOu are talking to a guy who lives 30 minutes from the AC casino's and maybe goes 1x/year and plays Wheel of Fortune slots, gets a buffet, and goes home.

JP,

You are only paranoid when the world really isn't out to get you, LOL. No, I am not a conspiracy theorist, but I am a realist to know that markets are manipulated everyday by big players.

You are just a pawn, a blip, in the chessgame of market trading. The players will take the profit first. Small investors second.

And yes, I beleive the silver market is manipulated all the time with questionable trades. That's why I tend to be an investor, not a trader.

For the first time though, I am faced with the task of learning trading though.

[disneysteve]

DS,

What is 9/6 Jacks? I went to the website and didn't find it.

Here is the 9/6 JOB strategy page. You'll see there are 3 levels of strategy with slightly different odds. Personally, I play the simple strategy because, well, its simple and I don't think the difference between a house edge of 0.46% and 0.54% is really something I'd ever notice.

9/6, also called Full Pay, refers to the pay table for the game. It means that a Full House pays 9 credits for every 1 credit bet and a Flush pays 6 credits for every 1 credit bet. Many casinos offer video poker but with lesser odds and a larger house advantage. You can find 9/5, 8/6, 8/5 and worse depending on where you look. Even within one casino, not all of the machines will have the same odds so you need to look around.

In Atlantic City, I know that Ballys and Caesars both offer 9/6 JOB. Both have $1 games. Caesars also has $0.25 games. I'm not sure about the other casinos because those are the only two I play in regularly. I prefer Ballys because the $1 machines are in the non-smoking section while at Caesars they are in the smoking section.

[Scanner]

Okay though. . .I am no mathmatical genious here, but with a house edge of .46%, I would say, the longer I choose to play, the more likely I am going to just walk away breaking even, or perhaps with a small loss, no?

Hey, it may at least be better than going against market manipulators.

[cypher1]

Two birds with one stone: Vegas+crap tables+women= What happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas. And if you're up at the end, then go to Scotland with your buddy. You don't need a college degree to figure that one out :P

[ea1776]

Craps = best odds in Vegas when you take maximum odds. Read about a craps strategy where you always have 3 "rounds" maximum bets on the table and always take max "odds". Play until you've doubled or lost everything.
Rinse and Repeat.

Disclaimer: Craps is my favorite game because of the following:

1. Great odds when played properly (horrible odds when not played properly / with discipline).
2. Crowds of people hootin' and hollerin' is accepted and encouraged in this game.
3. The ladies love to throw the dice or blow on them prior to you throwing them. haha

[cypher1]

Craps = best odds in Vegas when you take maximum odds. Read about a craps strategy where you always have 3 "rounds" maximum bets on the table and always take max "odds". Play until you've doubled or lost everything.
Rinse and Repeat.

Disclaimer: Craps is my favorite game because of the following:

1. Great odds when played properly (horrible odds when not played properly / with discipline).
2. Crowds of people hootin' and hollerin' is accepted and encouraged in this game.
3. The ladies love to throw the dice or blow on them prior to you throwing them. haha

I'm gonna have to do some reading on that. I'm not a big gambler, but if I'm gonna throw away my money at gambling, craps is the most fun for losing (not that losing is ever really fun).

[disneysteve]

The problem with craps is that you need a boatload of money to play it, at least around here. If the table has a $25 minimum (or even $15) and offers 10X odds, you need a big bankroll if you expect to be there for any period of time. Otherwise, a few bad rolls will wipe you out. The odds are great but that is what keeps me away.

[KTP]

Some of the more "hole in the wall" casinos on the strip will offer $1 craps during the day. That same casino also does $0.25 roulette, which is kind of fun too.

My favorite vegas action is texas holdem tourney play at the Luxor. $25 buy in with no rebuys gets you 1 to 2 hours of play. I have played there about 6 times and 3 of those I have come in the top 7 and was paid more than my entry fee. I was first place once, but it only pays out about $550 since they pay out to 7 places. I was very nervous when it got down to head to head, but the adrenaline rush is pretty fun for $25 (can you even bungee jump that cheap nowadays?)

[disneysteve]

Some of the more "hole in the wall" casinos on the strip will offer $1 craps during the day. That same casino also does $0.25 roulette, which is kind of fun too.

The best you'll do in AC is $10 craps and $5 roulette. Much different than Vegas. So even at $10, playing 10X odds gets expensive real quick.

[cypher1]

Some of the more "hole in the wall" casinos on the strip will offer $1 craps during the day. That same casino also does $0.25 roulette, which is kind of fun too.

I was going to say, I first went to Vegas 6 years ago, and most of us did $2 crap tables on old strip. In fact, we were more successful at winning there than at newer mainstream casinos. Cheap way to learn basics and have fun. But $10+ a bet, ouch. I understand where that can disappear quickly. And $25 a bet, I might as well stick to double decks for blackjack. Then again, my casino fix has been minimal these last few years.

[ea1776]

I was going to say, I first went to Vegas 6 years ago, and most of us did $2 crap tables on old strip. In fact, we were more successful at winning there than at newer mainstream casinos. Cheap way to learn basics and have fun. But $10+ a bet, ouch. I understand where that can disappear quickly. And $25 a bet, I might as well stick to double decks for blackjack. Then again, my casino fix has been minimal these last few years.

Yeah on Fremont several months back, I found $3.00 minimum's on craps. pretty rare but's it's there, especially in the morning time on weekdays. $5.00 craps is pretty common to find on Fremont at any time.

[Scanner]

I just found an online gambling site for Backgammon.

I may actually get involved in that one. I am just playing with fun money now.

[disneysteve]

I just found an online gambling site for Backgammon.

I may actually get involved in that one. I am just playing with fun money now.

Keep in mind that internet gaming is illegal. That's been true for a while but it wasn't really enforced. Now, it is very difficult to find a site that will accept accounts from US residents. Or they will accept accounts but funding the account is extremely difficult. You can't use your credit card. You can't transfer funds from your bank account. I know a lot of folks who are very upset about this but our government has decided they don't want people gambling online.