Where to put my next 2-3k?

[gambler2075]

Unfortunately, I should have held my OVTI, held my CREE, and continued shorting the RIG (for those few days)... but alas.

Anyway, bailed on the rest of my CHTP, at 4.08-4.10... I am watching for possible reentry, though... we will see...

+40K$ realized gains today (1 month swing trade) and about another +6K$ over the past week with partial sells of CHTP. Made about 75K$ on CHTP since Aug 10th between the Etrade and Bofa accounts.



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p.s. anyone who says that trading is impossible should look at the daily account value for johnwelshphd... if you look at that daily p/l graph vs the dow, there is absolutely no way a sane person can say that trading is impossible... for everyone.

Free Tips To Apply For Successful Traders Over Time | JohnWelshPHD

[gambler2075]

+40K$ realized gains today (1 month swing trade) and about another +6K$ over the past week with partial sells of CHTP. Made about 75K$ on CHTP since Aug 10th between the Etrade and Bofa accounts.

...so on the one hand, I am somewhat pissed for missing out on the 100K$ more I could have gained if I had just held from 3.

Chelsea Therapeutics Internatio Stock Chart | CHTP Interactive Chart - Yahoo! Finance

Realistically, though, I wouldn't have been able to hold it ALL, for a month. However, I am somewhat annoyed at selling my 40K yesterday at 4.07... Basically missing out on 40,000$ by selling a day early, maybe up to 60,000$ if I had really traded CHTP. Somewhat annoying. But, I cannot be unhappy at making 75,000$ over the past month, and it reminds me that my DD was good here... I probably spent 30-40 hours doing research on CHTP until I knew pretty much all publicly available information on droxidopa. When you do that much fundamental analysis on a biotech, lots of times, all the publicly available research articles are kindergarten level... From reading the transcripts of the conference calls, I knew that I knew at least as much as half of the biotech analysts that were on the call, and it was abundantly clear that this stock was massively undervalued at 3$. That being said, I am going to sit and watch what happens, probably won't buy any CHTP, since I don't any shares.

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[gambler2075]

Single startup biotech/pharmaceutical stocks are also highly speculative and extremely inappropriate for this OP's short term goals.


Gambler's posts remind me of those faxes that come in saying "This is the best stock ever! It's gonna go through the roof soon, so buy now!"

So forgive me, but I can't help but think there is some alterior motive to a person whose 1st 2 posts proclaim this 1 pharmaceutical stock - and he even puts a disclaimer in post 1. Who does that?



Do not buy a speculative single stock to plan for a short term goal.

Certainly biotech stocks are highly speculative, but as the stock went all they way up from 3 where I bought 5 weeks ago, to 5.75, which is almost a 100% gain, and if you had bought at 4, you would have a nice 30-40% gain... in a month...

So, yes, it is speculative, but sometimes doing fundamental analysis can help you. In certain circumstances.

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[gambler2075]

So I figured that, while I would not post any more individual ticker symbols (as requested) I would still post my research on CHTP that shows why I bought, since the horse is already out of the barn and I had already posted the ticker symbol.

<sigh>

I was correct on my DD, but of course I missed out because I tried to trade it, and sold early. So, as CHTP looks to be opening at ~6.50 premarket today, that means that, as I had 80K shares at 3$, I would have made 300,000$, HAD I HELD, since Aug 10. But of course I sold way too early. But at least it reminds me that my research into CHTP was correct... p value of 0.003 was not even close, as far as the p of 0.05 target... I was predicting a p value of 0.01, or maybe even 0.005, actually.

Chelsea Therapeutics Reports Phase III Trial of Northera Met Primary Endpoint and Achieved Highly Significant Symptomatic Benefits in Neurogenic Orthostatic Hypotension - Yahoo! Finance

Personally, just in case anyone is wondering, as a contrarian I would absolutely stay away from CHTP at this point, as I could see it trading back to 6.00, although it may continue higher. But anyway, the play is over, imo. Why would anyone buy CHTP at 6.50 when they could have bought at 3 just 6 weeks ago? Or, rather, why not buy the NEXT CHTP at 3? I have a few candidates that I am considering here, but none of them are as slam-dunk obvious as CHTP was.

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[gambler2075]

My thoughts on CHTP at 7?

...considering that it was at 3$ just 6 weeks ago?

Click Me!



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[gambler2075]

This is not investment advice, but I believe CHTP is oversold at the close, 5.75... we'll see what happens tomorrow. no position.

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[gambler2075]

Not liking the way CHTP is trading at 5.75, out flat.

[KTP]

IMO black is oversold and one should go red. I predict a 100% return in a few seconds on red, unless of course black or green show, then all bets are off.

This is kind of how the swing trading works?

[financebanter]

Re: Where to put my next 2-3k?

I agree with Broken Arrow, high interst savings.

[gambler2075]

I think in the interest of full disclosure I will start numbering my trades so there will be no highlighting just the winners, and forgetting about the losers.... All trades will be accounted for. This will also force me to slow down on my trades so I am swing trading more, which I believe is where my strength lies.

Trade 1: CHTP. 80K, 3.01 or so. Sold ~30K at 4.05, holding 50K
Trade 2: ****. 83K position, will not list ticker symbol as it is very thinly traded. However, I will list enough identifying information that someone who REALLY wanted to, could do enough research and buy the stock. But more importantly, you could tell in retrospect that this was my pick. Diabetes Phase 3 results due "before mid september". Currently up 10% from entry price a few trading days ago.

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Sold 135,000 shares of SPEX, + 98,000$

posted the etrade screenshot (+68,000$), but not the 30K$ from Bofa.

Maybe I was lucky, like CHTP. again.

http://img259.imageshack.us/img259/4891/20101007spex.jpg

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[gambler2075]

Good video on trading vs. investing...

IMO trading is alot harder than it looks (oh, yes, believe me, I have been there ) but not impossible.

News Headlines

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[gambler2075]

Hmm... trading accounts down 25,000$ in the past 2 days, but up 200,000$ this year... still holding the same bio positions, this could be a long wait.

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