Is this market near the bottom?

[MoneyTrev]

I just get fearful when I hear about us "going into unchartered territory" What I mean I always read that in the long run expect 10% return on stocks, then I kept reading 8%. So ho wlow can that expectation go?

Don't expect this.

It's only for people who want to invest for very long term. It is an average. Don't use this or any piece of information like that to determine when you should buy a stock. Read the news!

[david4353]

I have to tell you guys, be careful with stocks.
Iv'e figured out it cant go any lower, invested 20k in a green stock (alternative energy) and the stock went from 1.46 to 0.9 in 3 weeks!!!!

and now i am looking for cheap silverware in the freebies forum.

take my advice, we are not at the bottom yet (tears )

Dave

[Broken Arrow]

Alternative energy (emerging technology sector) was riding on a little bit of a bubble back when price of crude oil was above $100 a barrel. This, despite the fact that the rest of the market was starting to crumble in spectacular fashion.

But now that crude has contracted, right along with the shrinking economy, speculative interest for alternative energy has waned as well. Not that there aren't companies and players in it, but rather, its own little bubble has deflated since then.

Now that OPEC has cut current supplies by a dramatic margin (more than 2.6 billion barrels a day or something like that), it could be an interesting time to look into alternative energy again. In particular, I would look into rechargeable batteries and solar cells.

That said, while I have been tempted to jump into this area (oil, alt. energy, and/or agriculture), I don't think OPEC still has cut enough to create an artificial shortage. They're just trying to balance the supply to reflect the demand at a price sweet spot that they think will be profitable.

Bottom line is, while I don't really know what will happen next, I haven't committed any of my money yet if that says anything....

[jIM_Ohio]

we are 15% off the bottom now and at one point we were 25% above the bottom.

If this is NOT the bottom, be prepared for a 30-45% type drop. Of course if we are on the way up, you missed the first 15% of the gain.

Only put in $$ with a 20 year time horizon and in the grand scheme of things you will be OK.

[sweeps]

I'm a commodity bear, but it seems like a very good time to go all in on OIL.

[jIM_Ohio]

I have to tell you guys, be careful with stocks.
Iv'e figured out it cant go any lower, invested 20k in a green stock (alternative energy) and the stock went from 1.46 to 0.9 in 3 weeks!!!!

and now i am looking for cheap silverware in the freebies forum.

take my advice, we are not at the bottom yet (tears )

Dave

Making a single play on such a speculative penny stock is by no means a good signal about up, down, sideways, volatility or the market as a whole.

I'd bet that stock is not even part of the 5500 stocks in the wilshire 5000.

[disneysteve]

Making a single play on such a speculative penny stock is by no means a good signal about up, down, sideways, volatility or the market as a whole.

I agree. In fact, even a single stock of a substantial, blue chip company isn't enough to gauge the overall market. Whenever the recovery starts (if it hasn't already), there will certainly be individual companies, large and small, that continue to fall or cease to exist all together.

[Broken Arrow]

I'm a commodity bear, but it seems like a very good time to go all in on OIL.

I've been looking at it too. Commodities, especially energy, has been beaten down hard last year. Harder than financials if one can believe that.

My reservation though is that China's oil demand has contracted as well. Obviously, this recession is global-wide, and it's affecting everybody. That means overall demand from around the world has contracted. OPEC's supply cut is undoubtedly huge. And yet, relative to a global contraction, not just in the US, I have to wonder if they actually cut enough?

As an investment, energy isn't a bad position to add to one's portfolio right now, but as a speculative play, it hinges on the global economy not shrinking any further. In the short term, I think that it just might continue to shrink some more.

Again, I haven't bought into any of this, but I'm definitely watching.

[Bernz]

In any market situation, diversification is still the way to go...who would have thought that Apple stock would go back to the $80's level again.

[CoreAssets]

No one really knows. If they did, we would have been alerted before the big fall.