Is this market near the bottom?

[GREENBACK]

I've been listening to a few financial people who seem to think the market has pretty much reached it's bottom. They seem to think the DOW won't go much below 8000 and that the market has already accounted for much of the current crisis. I wonder if they aren't just trying to keep their clientele from bailing out on them. Anyway, it would be nice if this is true. Anyone have thoughts on this?

[Inkstain82]

You can't time the bottom. Nobody can time the bottom. It's really that simple.

[GREENBACK]

I know there are still a lot of uncertainties regarding the economy and I'm not sure if it can be factored in to get a ballpark idea of where the bottom is. Like I said I kinda feel like this may be financial advisors trying to keep their clients.

[minnie1928]

Personally, I'm jumping into this market. Even if it's not the very bottom, it's gotta be getting close. We started buying stocks about a month and a half ago and upped my husband's 401k contribution.

[disneysteve]

The bottom will only be identifiable in retrospect once it has past. Just like the current recession was just identified as having started in December 2007.

Are we near the bottom? We might be. We might not be. There is no way to know and anyone who says otherwise is lying.

[gamecock43]

I think its a tad decieving because we are no longer "crashing" down. But stocks are still regularly going down, housing is going down...job layoffs are anticipated. So I dont think we are at or near the bottom but I think the "crashing" part is over. I think it will be a slow subtle decline for the next few years. But I'm no expert. This is my opinion- which I guess you were asking for.

[GREENBACK]

I guess none of us has experienced this kind of recession before. I don't know if there is any history that really indicates when the bottom is near. I have noted that we seem to bounce back up when we do get around the 8k mark but that might be a bit of wishful thinking on my part.
I still try to keep in mind that this is a great buying opportunity and the numbers in my accounts are only values and not real money. I'm thinking of frontloading a couple of retirement investments for 2009 in case we do start experiencing a recovery and if not I'll still have more shares going forward.

[kork13]

I have noted that we seem to bounce back up when we do get around the 8k mark but that might be a bit of wishful thinking on my part.

The latter part of that statement is probably correct... remember that not until 1997 did we even make it up to 8000. Really, there just isn't enough data to make a call like that.

I still try to keep in mind that this is a great buying opportunity and the numbers in my accounts are only values and not real money. I'm thinking of frontloading a couple of retirement investments for 2009 in case we do start experiencing a recovery and if not I'll still have more shares going forward.

This, however, I completely agree with. I do personally feel that we're close to a bottom.... it may go down more, but I consider this a stable enough low to call this a very good time to be buying in, and that it may just stick around here long enough to do my accounts some real good. I'm only 22, so my prospects are good if I can, as you say, "frontload" my investments. I want to be ready for a recovery when it happens, and I feel that I will be.

[Gjowers]

Who knows, but I'm bullish on stocks right now. As Warren Buffett says, be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Hopefully, I'll enjoy the fruits of others' panic.

[MoneyTrev]

Who knows, but I'm bullish on stocks right now. As Warren Buffett says, be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful. Hopefully, I'll enjoy the fruits of others' panic.

That's what i've been following also. Hopefully it goes up soon.

Personally, I think we aren't at the bottom yet. It'll hit dead bottom when lots of big companies start settling and lose less money. It just takes a spark for people to start spending money and we'll be looking the other way!

[bankbars]

Hi there,
There are certain factors need to be analyzed to know the bottom stock market like market valuation , investor sentiment , market oversold indicators , market capitulation , yield curve. with the help of these information one can get the close idea of market condition. I would like to discuss regarding market valuation. by using a market valuation graph that gives the ratio of price to fair value for the stock in each coverage over time. A ratio below 1.00 indicates that the stock's price is lower than the estimate of its fair value. Investor sentiment indicator refers to When an extremely huge percent of investors and financial advisers express negative sentiment, it is a strong signal that a market bottom may be near. Market sold indicators involves relative strength index (RSI)it is momentum indicator that compares recent gains to recent losses.When the RSI value is below 30 in range of 100, the market or stock is considered to be significantly oversold and therefore undervalued.

These are the things which are required to determined the bottom market condition.

Regards.
Bankbars

[GREENBACK]

kork13
When I said "frontload" I was referring to contributing the maximum I can for these accounts at the start of the year in anticipation of a strong comeback rather that continuing to dollar cost average into them. When we recover it will likely be hard and fast and then taper off from what I've heard
so it would be good to already have things in place to take advantage of that. As has been stated, there is no good way to know what's going to happen or to time any of this but it would be great to get lucky

[boosami]

The bottom will only be identifiable in retrospect once it has past.

Steve's got it nailed. You can really only identify the "signs" of a recession/depression or recovery after the fact, and they are unique to that scenario. We won't know until it's over, and then we can point out all the tell-tale signs we were coming out of it. Until then, we all just are along for the ride.

[kork13]

kork13
When I said "frontload" I was referring to contributing the maximum I can for these accounts at the start of the year in anticipation of a strong comeback rather that continuing to dollar cost average into them. When we recover it will likely be hard and fast and then taper off from what I've heard
so it would be good to already have things in place to take advantage of that. As has been stated, there is no good way to know what's going to happen or to time any of this but it would be great to get lucky

I realized that I misunderstood you after posting, but upon realizing that, I thought further how that could be really good.... Clearly a gamble, but a calculated one that I'd be willing to take...at least to a limited extent.

I think I will have the cash available to drop $1000-$1500 into my Roth soon after the New Year, so I think that'll be my plan. Won't totally "frontload" my Roth, but I think it's a decent middle-ground between risk and caution.

[Goldy1]

I have read basic finacne book sfor years, and it has been interesting for me to see some of the concepts I read about come into play and be on the news.
I just get fearful when I hear about us "going into unchartered territory" What I mean I always read that in the long run expect 10% return on stocks, then I kept reading 8%. So ho wlow can that expectation go?

Also it seems there are too many things that can go BAD and all the BAD makes the market suffer. When I mean is unemployment up:PLUNGE, consumer confidence down;PLUNGE, xyz company in trouble:PLUNGE. lol All the "plunge variables" seem ridiculous. Oh and ;too much talking about the market causing fear:PLUNGe. lol

I found it ironic how they were having a discussion on cnbc about whether all the talking was creating some of the fear. lol