January '25 Inflation highest in a year

[disneysteve]

Sadly, I've lost several years worth of annual gasoline purchases in the market

Only several years worth of gas purchases? We've probably lost a lifetime of gas purchases and then some. We're down well over 300K at this point.

[ua_guy]

Only several years worth of gas purchases? We've probably lost a lifetime of gas purchases and then some. We're down well over 300K at this point.

I'm poor. Or, I only talk about the retirement funds which I directly manage. It's one of the two, or maybe both!

But the headline is the same. "Bite off your nose to spite your face". I honestly don't care about gas prices when "all of whatever this is" is happening.

[QuarterMillionMan]

This is Los Angeles.

[disneysteve]

Eggs were up something like another 10% over the last month.

Actually they've been coming down as far as the national average is concerned, at least in the past couple of weeks.

[ua_guy]

Actually they've been coming down as far as the national average is concerned, at least in the past couple of weeks.

That's good news. The USA Today article I read said an increase of 10% for February. If they're coming down now in March, that should help.

[QuarterMillionMan]

The economy is quite strong right now IMHO. And it is doing a lot better with gas/oil prices dropping, egg prices dropping, and inflation dropping, etc. I would not say it is great especially with the stock market going haywire but overall I like the trajectory that we are on.

[disneysteve]

The economy is quite strong right now IMHO. And it is doing a lot better with gas/oil prices dropping, egg prices dropping, and inflation dropping.

We haven't seen the impact of recent events yet. Let's see what happens in a month or two or three with tens of thousands of people newly out of work and tariffs causing a spike in prices across the board. And trillions of dollars of wealth have disappeared due to the market correction which is also contributing to declining consumer sentiment. As people hunker down and rein in consumer spending, which is the engine that drives the economy, it may not look so pretty. I'd love to be wrong but things certainly aren't heading in a good direction.

[disneysteve]

One issue cropping up due to current policies is a significant drop in international travel to the US. Expectations are for a 5% drop meaning about $64 billion in lost revenue. The original forecast for this year was for a 9% gain. In February alone, visitors to the US dropped 2.4% from a year earlier. Travel from China is down 11%. Canadians driving to the US down 23% and down 13% by air. All of this at the same time that Americans are also cutting back on travel due to economic uncertainty. The travel and hospitality industry is in for a really rough time after being devastated just a few years ago by the pandemic that they were finally recovering from.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Crazy stock market which is up today on recession fears, tariffs, inflation fears, unemployment w/Fed employees, loans repayments defaults, etc. Markets must still be on a sugar high. I'm waiting for some big drops to gather nuts like a squirrel.

[ua_guy]

Powell stated today, what matters is "material changes that are persistent". No policy changes today, two rate cuts are still in the forecast this year. The market responded well.

[QuarterMillionMan]

The canary in the coal mine is $3055 gold for an oz. This tells me that fiat currency world-wide is big governments are still kicking the can down the road inflating their money including king dollar.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Today in Los Angeles I paid $6.99/dozen large eggs. It's coming down but still high from $1.79 a dozen that I remember before inflation came in like a rampaging bull.

[disneysteve]

Today in Los Angeles I paid $6.99/dozen large eggs. It's coming down but still high from $1.79 a dozen that I remember before inflation came in like a rampaging bull.

As we’ve pointed out numerous times the cost of eggs isn’t due to systemic inflation but rather to avian flu. As they get that under control and can raise new chickens to replace the hundred million or so that had to be killed the price will trend down.

[ua_guy]

The US is also importing massive quantities of eggs from foreign countries right now to help supply constraints and lower prices.

[Fishindude77]

As we’ve pointed out numerous times the cost of eggs isn’t due to systemic inflation but rather to avian flu. As they get that under control and can raise new chickens to replace the hundred million or so that had to be killed the price will trend down.

It's both ..... the bird flu + inflation.
It would be really unlikely that prices will get back down to those of a couple years ago even when they get the bird numbers built back up.