Is the party over?

[james.hendrickson]

All,

Maybe I've been paying too much attention to the news, but I wanted to go ahead and ask the question that seems to be on everyone's mind: Is the party over?

Case in point:

1. Crypto is a bear market, with a couple of major coins and brokerages imploding, as well as others laying off substantial portions of their workforce.

2. The S&P is down by 20%, which is a technical indicator of a bear market.

3. Inflation is up 8% to 10%, depending on which metric you use.

[ua_guy]

Yeah, I think it is. Or getting very close. I think we're in for a recession.

[QuarterMillionMan]

I see it as things are now on sale and buying opportunities abound. Today I just bought $1000 in bitcoin. I will buy more if dips more.

[bjl584]

We are going to have a recession.
I just don't know how bad.
But, it no reason to panic.
One of the best things that I did for my finances was to hold the course through 2008 - 2009

[ua_guy]

All,
1. Crypto is a bear market, with a couple of major coins and brokerages imploding, as well as others laying off substantial portions of their workforce.

I've stayed out of crypto because I've always thought it's a bit of a sham, rife with security issues and vulnerabilities. I've lost zero in Crypto

[Jluke]

Depends on your perspective.

ever hear of the roaring 20’s?

maybe this “pause” will lead to that again

Or not

[corn18]

I see it as things are now on sale and buying opportunities abound. Today I just bought $1000 in bitcoin. I will buy more if dips more.

Works great when you are accumulating. Not so much when withdrawing.

[QuarterMillionMan]

I’m still making a profit just not as much, I began buying at $9000 - $10,000 per bitcoin.

As for equities were are the folks who thought it always goes up. How is that working for you I got out long ago and saw the writing on the walls.

[corn18]

I’m still making a profit just not as much, I began buying at $9000 - $10,000 per bitcoin.

As for equities were are the folks who thought it always goes up. How is that working for you I got out long ago and saw the writing on the walls.

Could say the same about bitcoin.

[kork13]

I’m still making a profit just not as much, I began buying at $9000 - $10,000 per bitcoin.

As for equities were are the folks who thought it always goes up. How is that working for you I got out long ago and saw the writing on the walls.

Over the long term (10, 20, 40+ years), the stock market does fairly reliably trend upward. There are certainly down periods, and I agree we're going to be in for a significant one here very soon.

I'm still in the accumulation phase, so I'm optimistic -- the down market will just provide me with the opportunity to load up on "discounted" shares. That consistency served me extremely well in 2008-2009, 2020, and everything in between. The question isn't really "IF" we're headed for a downturn -- I think that's obvious at this point. The real questions will be "HOW LONG" and "HOW DEEP".

Another note for everyone, I'm starting to see more and more indicators that the housing market is cresting & ready for a spill. Interest rates are hurting borrowing capacity, in turn leveling/reducing demand & home values. Similarly, average DOM are starting to increase.

[bjl584]

Another note for everyone, I'm starting to see more and more indicators that the housing market is cresting & ready for a spill. Interest rates are hurting borrowing capacity, in turn leveling/reducing demand & home values. Similarly, average DOM are starting to increase.

I could be wrong, but it seems that the housing market will cool rather than crash as it did back in 2008.
We're under a different set of circumstances than we were then.
I don't see a wave of foreclosures coming this time around

[kork13]

I could be wrong, but it seems that the housing market will cool rather than crash as it did back in 2008.
We're under a different set of circumstances than we were then.
I don't see a wave of foreclosures coming this time around

Agreed 100%. Totally different conditions today vs. 2007-2010. I expect housing demand to cool off as interest rates climb & inflation remains a significant factor, leading to a slow decline in average home values.

If I were to throw down with guesstimates, I'd expect that average home values will eventually steady out around 10% below today's values, probably 2-3 years from now.

[QuarterMillionMan]

At some point do you jump ship? Or do you ride it all the way down then ride it up again? Not my kind of roller coaster ride.

[corn18]

At some point do you jump ship? Or do you ride it all the way down then ride it up again? Not my kind of roller coaster ride.

I am a boglehead, so my investing mantra is "Don't just do something, stand there!"

[QuarterMillionMan]

Holding cash which I’m doing is not so bad in times like this rather than “Yes sir can I have another.”