Post Your Wins

[disneysteve]

In my case the aces might come 1/5761 hands. So let's say I can play 10 hands a minutes, or 600 hands an hour. In about 10 hours of playing I might to get an aces 4 four of a kind. These are not absolute and I could be very unlucky and go 20,000 hands without getting it or I might get very lucky and get it only after playing 200 hands. Any math geeks here find anything to the contrary with my explanation or might have a different interpretation?

What is important to remember is that at the casino, every spin or every hand is an independent event. The outcome of your 2nd spin or your 20th spin or your 200th spin is unaffected by the outcome of the spins that came before it. People fall into the common misconception that a certain outcome is "due" because it hasn't occurred for a while but that's not how it works. If you play 20,000 hands and don't get 4 aces, the odds of getting it on spin 20,001 are exactly the same as they were on spin 1. The fact that it hasn't happened all that time doesn't make it any more likely to occur now.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Good explanation. Here's another scenario in video poker. There are 52 cards in a deck, no jokers. On the initial deal I get 4 cards to a royal flush so I discard the rubbish card. There are 47 cards remaining in the deck. I picture in my minds 47 cards faced down and trying to pick the 1 out 47 remaining cards to complete the royal flush. Only one time out of many times did I get lucky and got the needed card on 4 cards to a royal flush. I've gotten lucky holding only 2, 3, or even only holding 1 card once and completing the royal flush.

[disneysteve]

Good explanation. Here's another scenario in video poker. There are 52 cards in a deck, no jokers. On the initial deal I get 4 cards to a royal flush so I discard the rubbish card. There are 47 cards remaining in the deck. I picture in my minds 47 cards faced down and trying to pick the 1 out 47 remaining cards to complete the royal flush. Only one time out of many times did I get lucky and got the needed card on 4 cards to a royal flush. I've gotten lucky holding only 2, 3, or even only holding 1 card once and completing the royal flush.

Yes, 1 in 47 isn't great odds, but you will hit it now and then if you play enough.

[disneysteve]

This one is a little ethically fuzzy but we didn't do it so I'll count it as a win.

My daughter ordered some socks from Amazon a couple of weeks ago. Order was about $27. Tracking showed when they would arrive and they did arrive in that window, but apparently the delivery person never scanned them as being delivered. Amazon's system still showed them in transit. After a couple of days, I actually joked that we could report them missing and get a refund, but we didn't actually do that.

Fast forward to yesterday when I got an email from Amazon saying they had issued a refund for the order since it never got delivered. I suppose I could reach out to them and tell them that we actually got them, but I'm not wasting my time doing that. They'd probably think I was a weirdo anyway if I contacted them to say, "Please don't give me a refund".

[QuarterMillionMan]

I'm waiting for someone to tell disneysteve how unethical that is for not returning the money, lol. About 10 years ago I started a thread here where I placed an order for (2) pipe clamps for $1.99 each but instead received (2) Grundfos circulating water pumps such as these;
Grundfos 99412493 UP10-16 Hot Water Recirculating | Build.com

I waited to see if the seller wanted the pumps returned but never heard back so I ended up selling the pumps on eBay for about half what it was worth. The thread I started was something like, "What would you do if you ordered (2) pipe clamps but received (2) water pumps?" Some people said it was unethical to keep it, while others said it was the seller's fault and I should not have to go out of my way to return it but I would have returned it if the seller asked for it back. As for disneysteve's situation I probably would not go out of my way and tell Amazon that I did in fact receive the order.

[kork13]

A month or so back, I put in a few sell limit orders to clean up my portfolio a bit (in my boredom/excitement during/after the COVID crash, I bought a variety of non-core ETFs/stocks). When I sell, since it's not a rush, I typically set the limit price to something a bit high (say, 5-10% above then-current prices) then just let it sit until expiration or execution.

With the recent run-up of the markets, I woke up this morning to a notification of one of them actually executing! It's always a happy little surprise when that happens. Depending on the lot, ends up being a 30-35% gain over the last 2-2.5 years. Nothing incredibly spectacular (roughly comparable to the S&P500), but I'll take the win!

Of course, I also have some losses from the same period (bad bets... oops) that I'm overdue to offload... So I can offset the gains & probably make it roughly net neutral for taxes.

[disneysteve]

This is an ebay item but personal, not business, so I'll include it here. I have a stack of old cell phones sitting on my desk to dispose of one way or another. I've sold off a couple previously. Yesterday I decided to list another one, an iPhone 7. It sold today for $50 to a guy in Canada. I might have been able to get a little more for it but I'm very satisfied with the quick flip.

I also have a non-financial win. We got a major snow storm today. Over the past few days, I've seen a number of posts in our local Facebook group for people who do snow removal. I called one of them yesterday and hired him to shovel and salt our property and clean off the cars. He came out tonight and did a nice job. Cost me $70 and was well worth it. I'm getting too old to be shoveling. A cardiologist friend says men over 50 should never shovel snow and I'm pushing 60. Plus we're all recovering from COVID so the last thing I need is to be out in the frigid weather for an hour shoveling and hoping I don't slip and fall in the process (like I did a number of years ago and tore my rotator cuff).

[Fishindude77]

Switched cell phone carrier from Verizon to ATT and saved $30 per month.
Verizon did not have great coverage at one location we visit a lot and ATT does, so that's a plus as well.

[bjl584]

A large oak tree came down in a wind storm a couple weeks ago near our cabin.
My neighbor and I cut it up and got a nice load of firewood out of it.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Profitable day at the casino. Paid for my new set of tires. Top pic is 33,840 pennies. Bottom pic is $250 win.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Free comp'd meal 3 egg omelette, tater tots, toast, and coffee. A perk of casino gambling.

[crazyliblady]

I’ve never lived anywhere where trash collection was something you had to buy on your own. It’s always been provided by the city or township. No choice involved. How many competing companies are there? Do you decide based on price, check reviews, or what?

In my area, I know there are at least 4 different companies to choose from. When the company we were using a few years ago got expensive (ca. $90 every 3 months), I asked friends and colleagues for recommendations and found another company that was $10 cheaper per month. We are very satisfied with the service, but the price has gone up a little bit, as have prices on everything from gas to carrots.

[james.hendrickson]

All - posting a stock market win this morning.

I bought a bit of Microsoft stock in my son's custodial IRA. I checked the account this morning and MSFT is up by about 686.57 percent. I paid something like $317 for six shares, now the market value is $2,503.26.

While it would have been great if I could have bought more, it's still a solid stock market win.

Here is MSFT's 5 year chart.

[scfr]

I just renewed my driver's license online. The "Technology Fee" which makes it so I don't have to go in to the DOL is just about the best $1 I ever spent. Holey moley I'm so glad those days of grabbing a deli/bakery-style ticket number and waiting for hours are in the past!

[QuarterMillionMan]