Stores and restaurants re-closing due to COVID

[rennigade]

Full video news clip about Disneyland & Disney World laying off 28,000, sad news. https://abc7.com/business/disney-ann...demic/6654682/

Happiest place on earth.

[Smallsteps]

I am a bit in disbelief that some people seem to think things will ever be the same.

I am seeing more places close in this area NOT due to the virus spreading but due to the shutdowns or lingering Fear in some areas. I fully expect the small family owned lunch places in the office park where the company I work for is located to shut soon. Simply a place that used to have lines out the door, to have 1/4 the traffic that is not sustainable.

Fear is the largest business killer... even when places are open so many live in a state of fear and have not gone out to a place after they re-open. Some just do not understand how when walking thru a restaurant you need a mask but can take them off at the table.....same air circulating throughout. So many will chose not to go and by the time they decide OK ........i will go out they will find that place is GONE,

Add the unrest and violence and that will shut down even more. Places located in some cities know their customers will not come back if they are not sure if they will be bothered by some sort of misguided group or something just to go to dinner.
I know a property manager in a large city that has had these riots etc and small business or any size that can pack up and GO, have left or will leave the city. Employees will either follow their jobs to new areas or be left with a shrinking amount of jobs in that city.
Rent prices have dropped 25% and the vacancy rate is the highest seen in almost 2 decades. Good news as the price to live there was insane but even 25% lower does not matter if the jobs are gone.

The boom of building and investing in housing options was a big deal there........ now the investors walk away from certain areas and most of it is NOT Covid. There are places and cities I doubt I would go visit for a longtime due to Crazy not Covid.

[ua_guy]

I am a bit in disbelief that some people seem to think things will ever be the same.

I am seeing more places close in this area NOT due to the virus spreading but due to the shutdowns or lingering Fear in some areas. I fully expect the small family owned lunch places in the office park where the company I work for is located to shut soon. Simply a place that used to have lines out the door, to have 1/4 the traffic that is not sustainable.

Fear is the largest business killer... even when places are open so many live in a state of fear and have not gone out to a place after they re-open. Some just do not understand how when walking thru a restaurant you need a mask but can take them off at the table.....same air circulating throughout. So many will chose not to go and by the time they decide OK ........i will go out they will find that place is GONE,

Add the unrest and violence and that will shut down even more. Places located in some cities know their customers will not come back if they are not sure if they will be bothered by some sort of misguided group or something just to go to dinner.
I know a property manager in a large city that has had these riots etc and small business or any size that can pack up and GO, have left or will leave the city. Employees will either follow their jobs to new areas or be left with a shrinking amount of jobs in that city.
Rent prices have dropped 25% and the vacancy rate is the highest seen in almost 2 decades. Good news as the price to live there was insane but even 25% lower does not matter if the jobs are gone.

The boom of building and investing in housing options was a big deal there........ now the investors walk away from certain areas and most of it is NOT Covid. There are places and cities I doubt I would go visit for a longtime due to Crazy not Covid.

Sorry....like 99.9% of businesses aren't in a downtown corridor where there has been violence.

Commercial real estate is imploding because of usage. The residential housing market is on fire, though.

It would be really great if Americans could wear masks, distance, and maybe have a national strategy to defeat big rona so we could get back to a way of life. But too many people are personally offended by voluntarily wearing a mask.

[disneysteve]

so many live in a state of fear

I am so tired of people using this expression. How exactly is anyone living in fear? No, we are aren't eating inside of restaurants. That's been found to be one of the highest risk activities (along with bars and gyms). We are going out to eat, though. We're just dining outdoors instead. Quite a few restaurants around here have added as much or even more outdoor seating than they had inside. I hope they keep it long term. Weather permitting, I greatly prefer the outdoor seating at some of our favorite places. One place we like is a sports bar and it's super loud inside, but eating outside is great. We can actually have a conversation without shouting.

Is wearing a mask living in fear? I've heard that a lot, too, and I don't understand it at all. If I'm going about all of my normal activities but just happen to be doing it with a mask on, how is that living in fear? The only thing I'm fearful of is all of the morons who think masks aren't necessary.

Add the unrest and violence and that will shut down even more.

Riots affect a extremely tiny area of the country. Even in the cities that we keep hearing about on the news, like Portland, the section of town actually affected is very small. It's not like the entire city is under attack. It's a few blocks where everything is happening.

I know a property manager in a large city that has had these riots etc and small business or any size that can pack up and GO, have left or will leave the city. Employees will either follow their jobs to new areas or be left with a shrinking amount of jobs in that city.
Rent prices have dropped 25% and the vacancy rate is the highest seen in almost 2 decades. Good news as the price to live there was insane but even 25% lower does not matter if the jobs are gone.

There is a lot changing in the real estate market because many companies have discovered that they don't need all of the space that they have. Many employees working from home are thrilled and requesting to do it long term. Some companies have made some positions WFH permanently if the employee wants to. As a result, they don't need the hundreds of thousands of square feet of office space anymore. They can shrink their footprint and save a ton of money. The pandemic sped up the remote work concept by a decade.

[disneysteve]

Happiest place on earth.

I know many people who work for Disney. It's been an extremely difficult year. First they were all furloughed. Then they gradually started getting called back. Now some are being let go permanently. My twitter feed has a growing list of people posting that they've gotten their termination letters. The ones that haven't yet been notified are wondering if that call is about to come. It's a really sad situation all around.

I think Disney's expectations of what would happen when they reopened was unrealistic. They probably thought that once they reopened, guests would immediately return and that just isn't what has happened. A great many people are still under travel restrictions so they couldn't go even if they wanted to. A significant number of people are high risk for various reasons so they aren't traveling and going out in large crowds. And a lot of us simply understand that we are still in the midst of a global pandemic with 1,000 or so Americans a day dying and we just don't feel that we need to take that risk just to ride Space Mountain right now. Personally, we have a trip booked in late March and I'm not 100% sure that will happen. We'll have to wait and see. If we don't go, then we made a very generous donation to Give Kids the World because we bought non-refundable tickets to a special event they are having.

[Smallsteps]

Sorry....like 99.9% of businesses aren't in a downtown corridor where there has been violence.

Commercial real estate is imploding because of usage. The residential housing market is on fire, though.

It would be really great if Americans could wear masks, distance, and maybe have a national strategy to defeat big rona so we could get back to a way of life. But too many people are personally offended by voluntarily wearing a mask.

the VACANCY rate I spoke of was Apartments in SEATTLE.... not commercial spots my friend works for a large company that does the building and lease up of property then sells to investors they abandoned the city and are focused on surrounding communities. there have been more then one project cancelled.
As for downtown areas ........a friend from school owns a place not in the area of town of chaz/ chop but still traffic is way down as people unfamiliar with exact neighborhoods just avoid downtown all together.
Sure if you know the exact areas of concern you may navigate around them but many just do not want the hassle.....

many businesses have moved out of city to other places and citys from across the state are making pitches to take companies out of the City of Seattle .... that is why amazon is moving thousands of corporate jobs to a city across Lake Washington from Seattle 15,000 jobs

[ua_guy]

the VACANCY rate I spoke of was Apartments in SEATTLE.... not commercial spots my friend works for a large company that does the building and lease up of property then sells to investors they abandoned the city and are focused on surrounding communities. there have been more then one project cancelled.
As for downtown areas ........a friend from school owns a place not in the area of town of chaz/ chop but still traffic is way down as people unfamiliar with exact neighborhoods just avoid downtown all together.
Sure if you know the exact areas of concern you may navigate around them but many just do not want the hassle.....

many businesses have moved out of city to other places and citys from across the state are making pitches to take companies out of the City of Seattle .... that is why amazon is moving thousands of corporate jobs to a city across Lake Washington from Seattle 15,000 jobs

Amazon announced they were building a new campus in downtown Bellevue before covid or protests. They also leased the old ATT space in Redmond for part of their AWS team. Again, expansion. So I'm not really sure what you're referring to. Bellevue is an attractive option for corporate campuses from a commute and real-estate standpoint and has been for a couple decades. That's where T-Mobile is, Expedia used to have offices there, Microsoft, Paccar, F5, Google...

Apartment rent isn't down 25%. It's off by about 1.9% since the pandemic started and it's inline with people losing their jobs and/or putting moves on hold.

I just don't see your argument that people are so scared of living and doing business in cities with "violence and unrest". Mostly because I know the area really well--and have for decades--and that's just not the truth.

[james.hendrickson]

Actually, the posters who brought up vacancy rates have a good point. With more people working from home, there is much less demand for downtown office space. I'm seeing this in Portland, and its probably almost certainly the case for many other urban areas as well. Just as a for example, the building next to mine has its bottom five floors vacant - I can see them from my window.

The problem is...if working from home keeps up for much longer, its going to be very difficult for downtown businesses to survive.

[disneysteve]

The problem is...if working from home keeps up for much longer, its going to be very difficult for downtown businesses to survive.

A lot of this has already happened. Ground level businesses have closed in many cities. These are places that almost entirely depend on foot traffic from folks working in the nearby offices - coffee shops, restaurants, retail stores, etc. The people who frequented those businesses have been working from home for 7 months now. Even though the businesses were allowed to reopen a few months ago, it didn't matter because the customers didn't return. We haven't been to NYC since COVID hit, but I really wonder what things will look like when we're finally able to get back into the city. I know that a number of hotels in Manhattan have closed permanently and there will probably be more closures before this is done. With so many people working from home, Broadway shut down, and tourism virtually non-existent, there simply isn't anything to keep those places in business.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

lots of places have already closed down in suburbia. I guess in cities they hung on longer?

[Smallsteps]

Amazon announced they were building a new campus in downtown Bellevue before covid or protests. They also leased the old ATT space in Redmond for part of their AWS team. Again, expansion. So I'm not really sure what you're referring to. Bellevue is an attractive option for corporate campuses from a commute and real-estate standpoint and has been for a couple decades. That's where T-Mobile is, Expedia used to have offices there, Microsoft, Paccar, F5, Google...

Apartment rent isn't down 25%. It's off by about 1.9% since the pandemic started and it's inline with people losing their jobs and/or putting moves on hold.

I just don't see your argument that people are so scared of living and doing business in cities with "violence and unrest". Mostly because I know the area really well--and have for decades--and that's just not the truth.

Amazon sent the Seattle employees a survey regarding surrounding cities to move to. Bellevue / Redmond /Kirkland and Issaquah were on it

The original Bellevue plan was expanded to take up a the large transfer out of south lake union since Seattle has passed that employee head tax on large corporations they actually refer to as the Amazon tax.
Other companies have moved and recently in another city with these riot problems 40 restaurants sued their city because the perception of problems have cut off their traffic in a big way.
Some people want it to be something else but some cities whom did not deal with items or tried to play it off will need to wake up to why the empty storefronts and restaurants left.

Ok so a person whose whole job is assessing the market and shopping comps for rental prices for his company is wrong in your opinion.
The rent may not be seen by those currently in a lease but i will tell you if the unit next door was recently rented the neighbor probably got a much better deal.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

Amazon sent the Seattle employees a survey regarding surrounding cities to move to. Bellevue / Redmond /Kirkland and Issaquah were on it

The original Bellevue plan was expanded to take up a the large transfer out of south lake union since Seattle has passed that employee head tax on large corporations they actually refer to as the Amazon tax.
Other companies have moved and recently in another city with these riot problems 40 restaurants sued their city because the perception of problems have cut off their traffic in a big way.
Some people want it to be something else but some cities whom did not deal with items or tried to play it off will need to wake up to why the empty storefronts and restaurants left.

Ok so a person whose whole job is assessing the market and shopping comps for rental prices for his company is wrong in your opinion.
The rent may not be seen by those currently in a lease but i will tell you if the unit next door was recently rented the neighbor probably got a much better deal.

Rents are down more than 25%. I can attest to that. I can very specifically give a real world example and it's not the exception but the rule. DH's cousin 7/2019 signed a 15 month lease ending 10/31 for $2900/month for a 1 bedroom apartment downtown. Parking was $275 and $350 (charging spot). So in all around $3500/month for a 1 bedroom downtown. This year they started shopping because of covid they wanted a 2 bedroom because it has been hard. In their building 2 bedrooms last year started (Lower floor) at $4500/month. But the apartment building refused to give them a deal. So they are moving to a 2 bedroom to an apartment building about 1 block away. Why?

Because for a 2 bedroom they are paying now $3500/month after calculating all costs. It still is $4500/month but they were incentivized with 2 months free rent to end of the year. Free parking for 1 year. So they are now paying the same price as a 1 bedroom. That is 30% off in a "expensive" super fancy building. Luxury apartment yes. The Cuz is high maintenance and admits it freely. I mean who the hell looks at finishes and quality? They do. Either which way they are paying the same price for a 2 bedroom that was the 1 bedroom and the 1 bedroom is now much, much cheaper.

Same thing happened to my BIL. He ended up signing a lease in May with free parking and 2 months free. So he also pays worse $2900 for a studio but it's getting a lot cheaper. He's made the comment he can finally afford to buy a home with prices tanking.

Trust me when I say that home prices are bound to go down. But it'll happen slower because WA and CA and East Coast are prohibiting evictions for lack of rent but landlords are still falling behind even if they have reserves and can afford it.

[QuarterMillionMan]

https://www.ocregister.com/2020/10/20/california-allows-theme-parks-to-reopen-but-disney-and-universal-wont-return-for-weeks-or-months/

Disneyland may have to wait until next summer to reopen.

[disneysteve]

The school district I live in and the schools in the city of Philadelphia both announced this week that they have cancelled their planned in-person reopening until further notice due to rising Covid cases.

Here in NJ, there is a new curfew mandating no indoor dining or bars after 10pm and no bar seating any time. They've also cancelled all indoor school sports up through high school (it doesn't affect colleges).

I suspect we will see more closures as the season ramps up. Cases are rapidly rising in almost every state. With Thanksgiving, Christmas, and New Years approaching, I really worry how many people will simply ignore the fact that the worst of the pandemic is still ahead of us and have all of their family gatherings and dinners and parties as if nothing is wrong.

Please stay safe and stay home. Celebrate the holidays with the people you live with.

[kork13]

Yeah, cases are definitely spiking here in Idaho as well, even now in our smaller town. Over the last 3 days, we've had 5 folks in my directorate alone (~140 people) either test positive, go for testing, or into precautionary quarantine due to likely exposure. Over the last couple weeks, we've averaged no more than 2 cases/4 precautionary in the entire unit (~300 people)... So definitely a noticable spike, even with our small sample size.

I'm not sure what we're gonna do for the holidays.... Our brothers have plans to come to Idaho for Christmas (2 brothers + a wife), possibly my father & his wife as well. Likely, we'll end up still having them come, just as long as they haven't been sick at all. But we do want to be somewhat cautious, just because having me put on quarantine would be a significant problem for my unit -- we have a very fragile timeline for preparing our unit ready ahead our next deployment.

Then of course, right after the new year, we were also planning to fly up to Fairbanks to see the aurora & Chena hot springs... Again, hopefully still plan to do it, but we may have to see what happens....