unemployment claims

[disneysteve]

surely TH is able to manage the costs when it's "off season"? If he could treat this as a temporary off season he may be fine. I know some Air BNB hosts who were renting out rooms in their HOMES to supplement their incomes are really struggling.... Most people can't see light at the end of this horrible tunnel unfortunately.

I'm sure most people who have vacation rentals or work through AirBnB plan for a certain occupancy rate including the off-season if that's relevant (in Florida, for example, there is no off-season). I think TH's places are year-round as well. And maybe having the rentals vacant for a month or so would be bad but manageable but his other businesses are also shuttered so he's getting it from all sides. No rental income. Reduced property management income (I'm sure there's still some as the owners still need to pay to have the houses kept up). No salon income. I doubt he foresaw a situation where all 3 of his businesses would drop to zero at the same time and for weeks on end.

[ua_guy]

You can’t put back enough cash to go dark for a month or more. The numbers don’t work. Maybe in your personal budget, yes.

The shareholders of publicly traded companies, like the ones held in your 401K, like to receive dividends.

This is my last post on this board, forever. I can’t deal any more with people who can’t, or won’t, understand basic economics. It would be funny if it weren’t so pathetically sad.

Wishing you all wellness and happiness.

Out.

Sorry that differing viewpoints affected you to the point of leaving. Check in when this is over so we can all compare notes about our predictions of the future! Best to you and yours in surviving what may be ahead.

[Evangelion335]

The consensus for unemployment claims tomorrow is 4.35 million. Previously last week it was 5.2 million, 6.6M and 6.9M, and 3.3M. I think it's 6.6M and it was only down because of good friday a week ago. I know that self employed independent contractors are starting to be able to file for their $600/week from federal government.

I think this report tomorrow if higher than 4.35M and earnings will rock the stock market. After all they believe claims are going down instead of being put on pause because of a holiday. I hope i'm wrong and claims are down to 4.35M/week ending 4/17.

What do you guys think?

Unemployment numbers are absolutely ****ed and completely inaccurate since 2008. The 'true' number of unemployed is much higher than the government is willing to admit, and has been for a very long time. I apologize for the language... I feel strongly about this. :|

[amarowsky]

Unemployment numbers are absolutely ****ed and completely inaccurate since 2008. The 'true' number of unemployed is much higher than the government is willing to admit, and has been for a very long time. I apologize for the language... I feel strongly about this. :|

I wonder if they are including the countless gig economy / contractor jobs that are on the "struggle bus" to get unemployment? I was working UBer/Lyft while searching for my next career. And in Michigan they have been kinda jerking me around to get my Unemployment. If i recall there are like 3 million uber drivers globally, and approx 750,000 in USA. So mine is one of the many claims that has been outstanding for almost a month and not yet "paid". Thankfully we planned to take some time off so our finances are controlled and we're in no imminent danger. But it is annoying that I can not work & am currently unable to claim any of the U.E. benefits from Cares act, that I shoveled my share (and then some) into on my 2019 taxes...

In Michigan (one of the more impacted states) the Unemployment seems to be pretty ubiquitous. When I observe & talk to those around me. It feels closer to 30% are laid off/ furloughed / or other right now in the ol' murder mitten.

[amarowsky]

You can’t put back enough cash to go dark for a month or more. The numbers don’t work. Maybe in your personal budget, yes.

The shareholders of publicly traded companies, like the ones held in your 401K, like to receive dividends.

This is my last post on this board, forever. I can’t deal any more with people who can’t, or won’t, understand basic economics. It would be funny if it weren’t so pathetically sad.

Wishing you all wellness and happiness.

Out.

FYI - Very sad to see TexasHusker leave. Always enjoyed his perspective, experiences, and opinion's shared to the gang. He will be missed, and I hope he can weather this awful storm. And return to share his tales of survival and returning to productive operations (sooner than later , one would hope).

[disneysteve]

Unemployment numbers are absolutely ****ed and completely inaccurate since 2008. The 'true' number of unemployed is much higher than the government is willing to admit, and has been for a very long time. I apologize for the language... I feel strongly about this. :|

You've got a lot of people who aren't eligible for benefits, like those who work for non-profits, for example.
You've got a lot of people who have had their hours reduced but are still employed.
You've got a lot of people who have had their pay cut but are still employed.

The unemployment number just counts those who have filed. That doesn't count everyone. There's really no way for the government to get an accurate count because that data just doesn't exist.

[~bs]

Not to mention the systems are so backed up overloaded that there really is no accurate count that exists. many people who are eligible to file cannot get thru. There are also duplicate claims created by people trying to push their claims thru.

[disneysteve]

Not to mention the systems are so backed up overloaded that there really is no accurate count that exists. many people who are eligible to file cannot get thru. There are also duplicate claims created by people trying to push their claims thru.

Yes. In some of the hardest hit states like Florida and New York, the system is totally overwhelmed. Florida actually shut down the system over the weekend and will reopen on Monday so nobody can even attempt to file right now. The fact that Disney furloughed 100,000 people isn't helping.

[amarowsky]

Not to mention the systems are so backed up overloaded that there really is no accurate count that exists. many people who are eligible to file cannot get thru. There are also duplicate claims created by people trying to push their claims thru.

do you think this is a feature of the system by design? Let it naturally get overwhelmed so the govt have to hand out less U.I. claims to citizens?

( alternative would have been to save the manpower & lean on the lower $1000 UBI per month. But that would only be if the intention was to make sure Everyone had survivablilty ensured). <---- * merely a theory.

By leaning on U.I. to be max utilized and over capacity, they are ensuring that not everyone gets some coverage. And those who really really really need it will just continue apply around the clock until accepted, and those who coudl use it, but are able to "survive" will become complacent and stop pursuing the claims?

Does this observation make sense, or sound to "conspiratorial"?

[disneysteve]

do you think this is a feature of the system by design? Let it naturally get overwhelmed so the govt have to hand out less U.I. claims to citizens?

Does this observation make sense, or sound to "conspiratorial"?

I think the current systems are so horribly outdated they just can't keep up. They are still running many of the systems on COBOL-based programming, a language that hasn't been used or taught for a couple of decades. The states are having trouble because they can't find programmers who know the language to replace those who have retired.

And, to be fair, we're seeing record numbers of applicants. 26 million over the past few weeks alone. The systems just aren't equipped to handle that sort of volume.

[~bs]

do you think this is a feature of the system by design? Let it naturally get overwhelmed so the govt have to hand out less U.I. claims to citizens?

( alternative would have been to save the manpower & lean on the lower $1000 UBI per month. But that would only be if the intention was to make sure Everyone had survivablilty ensured). <---- * merely a theory.

By leaning on U.I. to be max utilized and over capacity, they are ensuring that not everyone gets some coverage. And those who really really really need it will just continue apply around the clock until accepted, and those who coudl use it, but are able to "survive" will become complacent and stop pursuing the claims?

Does this observation make sense, or sound to "conspiratorial"?

Makes sense if the state doesn't have the money available to delay the payment so they can find it. However, at least in my state, they're using an archaic mainframe system dating 50 years at least. And previously had to process new claims numbering in the low thousands per week. Now they're going to 250K claims with this pandemic. A new system was evaluated a few years back, but due to the low unemployment rate at the time, it was deemed not necessary to spend millions to upgrade it. State government in general tends to be very reactionary... and when all this blows over, they probably still won't upgrade it, citing budget concerns, and preferring to kick the can down the road until the next crisis.

[Petunia 100]

do you think this is a feature of the system by design? Let it naturally get overwhelmed so the govt have to hand out less U.I. claims to citizens?

No, because the claim begins on the date of separation from employer. If Person A doesn't get their claim filed this week, they just file next week and the amount paid to them in total is exactly the same.

Besides, UI is funded through payroll tax. Employers should expect to see rates rise substantially next year.

[disneysteve]

State government in general tends to be very reactionary... and when all this blows over, they probably still won't upgrade it, citing budget concerns, and preferring to kick the can down the road until the next crisis.

Only state governments? Federal and local are no better. They are all typically reactive rather than proactive. And I think you're right. Now they are aware of the problem but thanks to all of this unemployment and shutdowns, their tax revenue will be off dramatically so there won't be funds to upgrade even if they wanted to.

[Petunia 100]

Only state governments? Federal and local are no better. They are all typically reactive rather than proactive. And I think you're right. Now they are aware of the problem but thanks to all of this unemployment and shutdowns, their tax revenue will be off dramatically so there won't be funds to upgrade even if they wanted to.

Is it really a good use of funds, though? The system works just fine MOST of the time. If you use the funds to upgrade to the point it can handle millions of claims per day, that means you aren't using the funds on other projects.

[disneysteve]

Is it really a good use of funds, though? The system works just fine MOST of the time.

Good question. Some of these computer systems are literally decades old. As I said, they're finding it harder and harder to find workers who can service and maintain the systems because COBOL isn't used or taught anymore. The people who know it are retiring or already retired. Our state put out a call for COBOL programmers a couple of weeks ago.

At some point you have to upgrade even if the system is generally functional.