Moving the goal posts

[disneysteve]

Then the acting President at the time owns the Swine Flu deaths of 2009.

The 2009 H1N1 outbreak killed 12,500 Americans.

So far, the current COVID-19 outbreak has killed 45,500 Americans, more than 3.6 times as many people, and it's still actively going on. 379 people died yesterday in New Jersey alone.

I honestly don't recall what role, good or bad, the Fed had in the 2009 outbreak so I can't really comment on that.

[disneysteve]

Here is your expert in January:

I think posting a link like this undermines the point you're trying to make.

Information changes!

What we knew about and thought about this virus in January was very different than what we know about it today. Therefore, the efforts being taken to combat it today may well be different than they were 8 weeks ago when the shutdowns started. We need to be willing to change the strategy if the information changes.

[ua_guy]

The world is just about to tip 180,000 confirmed COVID-19 deaths with more than 2,590,000 confirmed cases. Lots of good data in a dashboard style format here:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

[TexasHusker]

I think posting a link like this undermines the point you're trying to make.

Information changes!

What we knew about and thought about this virus in January was very different than what we know about it today. Therefore, the efforts being taken to combat it today may well be different than they were 8 weeks ago when the shutdowns started. We need to be willing to change the strategy if the information changes.

The information has indeed changed. Hospitals are not being overrun with cases in the vast majority of markets. Hospitals are meanwhile laying off people because there are few, if any, patients. In Texas, COVID patients occupy 3 percent of staffed hospital beds. We've had 517 fatalities. Meanwhile, the state has processed 1.4 million unemployment claims, and the fund is projected to be insolvent in three more weeks.

This has to stop.

[TexasHusker]

COVID deaths by age group in Texas:

<1 year = 0
1-9 years = 0
10-19 years = 0
20-29 years = 2
30-39 years = 4
40-49 years = 11
50-59 years = 18
60-64 years = 14
65-69 years = 25
70-74 years = 17
74-79 years = 24
80+ years = 91

Conclusion: As is the case with most other viruses and infections, the elderly are at the highest risk. For COVID patients 64 and under, your chances of dying aren't quite zero, but very close.

[Snicks]

Boy, this should be a really uplifting thread. I doubt anyone will get in any arguments. I doubt this will turn political...oh wait, it already has. I doubt we'll hear any bro science. Im sure we'll discover some deep insight and opinions of the members of this site. What else am I missing?

Everything has political ramifications. Especially this.

[ua_guy]

The information has indeed changed. Hospitals are not being overrun with cases in the vast majority of markets. Hospitals are meanwhile laying off people because there are few, if any, patients. In Texas, COVID patients occupy 3 percent of staffed hospital beds. We've had 517 fatalities. Meanwhile, the state has processed 1.4 million unemployment claims, and the fund is projected to be insolvent in three more weeks.

This has to stop.

One thing out of this that confuses me is why bailouts for airlines, restaurants, hotels, cruise ships, energy, and other large cap companies is being discussed (and paid!) before hospital bailouts. For the start of this, hospitals couldn't even get the needed PPE and now that ICU admits are on the decline, the health systems are facing devastation because of reduced patient volume everywhere else. Where's the bailout for health systems?

[Fishindude77]

Just checked the news and did a little simple math to look at our current situation.

It seems like it's kind of peaking right now in our area (Indiana) 661 deaths to date on a population of 6.7 mil, so one in every 10,100 people in the state die from it, that would equate to 3-4 in my county.

We've currently have 138 known cases in my county of approx. 39,000, one out of every 283 people have gotten it. That's equates to one person in my graduating high school class getting sick from this.


Seems like we're shutting down the economy and getting all crazy when stats for survival and good health are overwhelmingly in our favor, even if things get 3-4 times worse.

[disneysteve]

The information has indeed changed. Hospitals are not being overrun with cases in the vast majority of markets. Hospitals are meanwhile laying off people because there are few, if any, patients. In Texas, COVID patients occupy 3 percent of staffed hospital beds.

I agree with you. It sounds like your area is one that should be among the first to reopen.

Of course, one problem that arises is when people like your own Lieutenant Governor go on TV and say "There are more important things than living", folks get understandably upset that their priorities may not be in order.

On the other hand, 38% of our hospital beds are filled with COVID patients right now and the caseload is still rising by the day, so we aren't going to be reopening anytime soon.

I asked this question earlier but you may have missed it. What do you think is keeping your local officials from reopening? What benefit are they getting by staying closed? What's in it for them? I've been trying to figure that out.

[disneysteve]

Conclusion: As is the case with most other viruses and infections, the elderly are at the highest risk.

Here in NJ, 29% of hospitalizations are folks 50-64. 16% are 30-49. So fully 45% of hospitalized patients are 30-64.

I'm trying to find a death by age breakdown. As of 4/10, 22% were 64 or less but I want a more current number.

[TexasHusker]

One thing out of this that confuses me is why bailouts for airlines, restaurants, hotels, cruise ships, energy, and other large cap companies is being discussed (and paid!) before hospital bailouts. For the start of this, hospitals couldn't even get the needed PPE and now that ICU admits are on the decline, the health systems are facing devastation because of reduced patient volume everywhere else. Where's the bailout for health systems?

Hospitals don’t need a bailout. They need more customers. If we re-.open the economy, the hospitals get more customers, according to the experts.

The hospitals were told by the CDC folks that they would be overrun with patients. Wrong. Now they are being warned of the dreaded second wave by CDC.

This is what happens when you have clinicians calling the shots. You could write a fiction book with all of the policy craziness we are seeing, and no one would read it because it would be too asinine to be believable.

[disneysteve]

Hospitals don’t need a bailout. They need more customers. If we re-.open the economy, the hospitals get more customers, according to the experts.

Well that’s true of every business. Airlines and restaurants and everyone else gets their customers back when things reopen.

[ua_guy]

Hospitals don’t need a bailout. They need more customers. If we re-.open the economy, the hospitals get more customers, according to the experts.

The hospitals were told by the CDC folks that they would be overrun with patients. Wrong. Now they are being warned of the dreaded second wave by CDC.

This is what happens when you have clinicians calling the shots. You could write a fiction book with all of the policy craziness we are seeing, and no one would read it because it would be too asinine to be believable.

Partially agree. Working on the finance side of a hospital but observing from an IT perspective, there is a bridge to gap. We do need patient volumes to return to normal, but it can't easily or quickly recover what's already lost. We're already into pay cuts and furloughs. Our organization started from a very strong position as well--can't say the same for others.

So I do think some kind of financial package for healthcare is or should be coming?. But again - cruise ships and restaurants? Healthy people started avoiding hospitals for routine care and electives at the same time.

[TexasHusker]

Partially agree. Working on the finance side of a hospital but observing from an IT perspective, there is a bridge to gap. We do need patient volumes to return to normal, but it can't easily or quickly recover what's already lost. We're already into pay cuts and furloughs. Our organization started from a very strong position as well--can't say the same for others.

So I do think some kind of financial package for healthcare is or should be coming?. But again - cruise ships and restaurants? Healthy people started avoiding hospitals for routine care and electives at the same time.

People don’t admit themselves to hospitals. Doctors were discouraged, if not prohibited, from doing electives, at the directive of hospitals, who took their directive in good faith from the CDC. The CDC was wrong, as they have been in most of this. Models are good, facts are better. We have a good amount of facts now, and we need to return to policy based on fact, not apocalyptic projections .

[ua_guy]

People don’t admit themselves to hospitals. Doctors were discouraged, if not prohibited, from doing electives, at the directive of hospitals, who took their directive in good faith from the CDC. The CDC was wrong, as they have been in most of this. Models are good, facts are better. We have a good amount of facts now, and we need to return to policy based on fact, not apocalyptic projections .

Volumes are down and money has been lost. It's putting hospitals in a very weak position for the next wave. People rightfully are avoiding hospitals if they can right now--and that includes hospital-based clinics, and rescheduling anything they can postpone.