mortality

[TexasHusker]

Steve, there seems to be mounting evidence that actual mortality could be considerably overstated. In Wuhan, it's coming in at around 1.4%. Hefty to be sure, but significantly less than we originally maybe thought. How much does this help move the needle? What you are hearing in the medical community?

Just doing quick math, if we have 327 million people in the U.S., assume that we have half of them infected, or 164 million. If we can manage that mortality down to 1% possibly, we are at 1.64 million fatalities. That's a heck of a lot of people obviously still. Almost triple the number of cancer deaths per year.

But is there not a thought/phenomenon that as people get infected, they then become immune and we actually start shutting down the spread by immunity?

I would love to hear your thoughts.

[kork13]

I know that DS has been quoting ~1% overall mortality, accounting for unreported/undetected cases. FWIW, the only mortality figures I've really seen are either 3% (of observed cases) and 1% (of assessed total cases). Still significantly higher than influenza, but not overwhelming by any stretch. What I haven't seen are mortality figures strictly within the "at risk" population (older or with chronic illnesses). Honestly, it's probably a goldilocks zone of mortality, and prevents the virus' mortality rate from burning itself out.

I assume, like most diseases, immunity from exposure (the very basis of vaccination) will take effect at some point. However, I have seen a few random reports of individuals becoming reinfected, and the detected presence of a second related strain starting to make the rounds. In the Spanish Flu pandemic, the virus mutated into ~3 strains over the course of a couple years, which is what really caused alot of the major problems.

[greenskeeper]

Steve, there seems to be mounting evidence that actual mortality could be considerably overstated. In Wuhan, it's coming in at around 1.4%. Hefty to be sure, but significantly less than we originally maybe thought. How much does this help move the needle? What you are hearing in the medical community?

Just doing quick math, if we have 327 million people in the U.S., assume that we have half of them infected, or 164 million. If we can manage that mortality down to 1% possibly, we are at 1.64 million fatalities. That's a heck of a lot of people obviously still. Almost triple the number of cancer deaths per year.

But is there not a thought/phenomenon that as people get infected, they then become immune and we actually start shutting down the spread by immunity?

I would love to hear your thoughts.

All the steps taken are to prevent overwhelming our hospitals, etc. It's difficult to calculate a mortality rate because the total, not confirmed cases is really a total unknown. You can have the Chinese virus and show no symptoms at all....ever.

I work at a retirement community....tremendous steps are being taken daily to prevent an outbreak where at my workplace for example, the average age is well north of 70.

[disneysteve]

You can have the Chinese virus

You misspelled COVID 19.

Let’s keep the racism off the site please.

[disneysteve]

I know that DS has been quoting ~1% overall mortality, accounting for unreported/undetected cases.

Correct. The epidemiological data has been pointing to 1%. Compare that to the regular flu which is about 0.1%.

TH, your estimate is right on the mark. They anticipate about 160 million cases in the US, so about 1.6 million deaths if nothing changes.

I will say I haven't been following the latest data on this stuff the past week as I've been working and too mentally drained when I'm not to want to spend more time focused on it. I don't know how or if the estimates and expectations have evolved.

[myrdale]

If you follow Thunderfoot on YouTube he put out an interesting video going through the statistics of virus spread. Worth spending a few minutes watching.

Also for mortality, I saw where the nursing home in Washington state had stated they had something like 20 deaths in a 1 month period verses their typical average of 7. I wish there was some way to measure, rather than the loss of life, the loss of potential life. If someone died at 20, they would have lost 60 +/- potential years, vs someone at 80 on life support lost 1 +/- potential years. The loss of the 80 year on on life support is no less tragic but is significantly less in the total loss of potential years.

You misspelled COVID 19.

Let’s keep the racism off the site please.

This is a real sticking point for me, consider the following:

Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever
1918 Spanish Influenza
Mexican Swine Flu (H1N1)
Zika
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)
West Nile Virus
Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever
Limes Disease

While the currently accepted and popular name for this strand of corona virus may be COVID 19, calling it the Chinese Virus, Wuhan Virus, or Wuhan Bat Flu, while slightly inaccurate and maybe intolerant or ignorant at best, is a long way from racist. Virus are commonly named for the area they come from (hence my list above).

Also if someone says something rude / nasty about a country, that is not racism that is just being rude / nasty. Chinese is no more a race than Mexican, or Canadian, these are nationalities not races. The same applies to insulting Christians, Muslims or Jewish, these are religions not races.

The term racism itself is completely used out of context in today's society. Racism is the belief that one race is genetically superior to another. On this point I want to be loud and clear that no one person is "better" than another, that we are all born equal and while some may have a better starting place than others, anyone can succeed in today's society, based on their drive, work ethic, and willingness to serve others. However when you look at measurable data, IQ results, Olympic gold metals, violent crime statistics (within races and across races), there are strong correlations and they may not be exactly what you'd assume.

If greenskeeper actually meant a slight against the people of China, then he would be a bigot not a racist (granted this is no less excusable, but the definition is important).

Similarly we now live in a world where chivalry is considered toxic masculinity. I recently held open a door for a lady carrying a package and received a snarl that she could have done it for herself. Ultimately you can not help what words hurt other people, only what words you let hurt yourself. Personally I am going to continue holding doors open and washing my hands afterwards to avoid the Wuhan Bat Flu.

[disneysteve]

Ebola Hemorrhagic Fever
1918 Spanish Influenza
Mexican Swine Flu (H1N1)
Zika
Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS)
West Nile Virus
Rocky Mountain Spotted Fever
Limes Disease

While the currently accepted and popular name for this strand of corona virus may be COVID 19, calling it the Chinese Virus, Wuhan Virus, or Wuhan Bat Flu, while slightly inaccurate and maybe intolerant or ignorant at best, is a long way from racist. Virus are commonly named for the area they come from (hence my list above).

The "Spanish" flu didn't originate in Spain. In fact, best records indicate it started in Kansas. However, Spain was neutral in the war and wasn't imposing media censorship so the pandemic got much broader coverage once it spread to Spain. And yes, the Spanish people were upset by it being called that.

Ebola is a river. Zika is a forest. Neither are called the "African" disease. Same for West Nile or Rocky Mountains.

There is a significant difference between naming a disease for a region or geographic location and naming it for an entire group of people. I'm pretty sure nobody in Connecticut is targeted for discrimination or hate crimes because of Lyme disease but many Asian people are suffering from certain prominent individuals calling COVID the Chinese virus.

It's also a problem when a pejorative name is used primarily for political purposes, as in the current case. Do you really think they'd be calling it the Ohio virus if the first case had been in Cleveland? Of course not, because that wouldn't be politically wise.

Let's use the proper name, please. Coronavirus as the general term. COVID19 as the disease name. If you really want to get technical, the actual viral strain is SARS-CoV-2 but that's too hard to type or say.

[alliecat79]

Texas, my laywoman's understanding of the death rate is that it can fluctuate. China has been extremely diligent in working to curb the virus to get what's called R0 (R-naught) to as close to zero as possible. Without the severe measures they took (forced social distancing, high amounts of testing--as in South Korea), the R0 would have been closer to 2-3. This is why such drastic measures have had to be taken here in the US. It's also about the quickness of spread and overwhelming of the healthcare system.

For reference: https://www.healthline.com/health/r-...#rsubsubvalues

[Captain Save]

As someone who sells life insurance I can tell you Life insurers are not worried about it ... (at least not yet) ..I was told that "it's treated as if you had the flu" ..

not my words..

[TexasHusker]

The "Spanish" flu didn't originate in Spain. In fact, best records indicate it started in Kansas. However, Spain was neutral in the war and wasn't imposing media censorship so the pandemic got much broader coverage once it spread to Spain. And yes, the Spanish people were upset by it being called that.

Ebola is a river. Zika is a forest. Neither are called the "African" disease. Same for West Nile or Rocky Mountains.

There is a significant difference between naming a disease for a region or geographic location and naming it for an entire group of people. I'm pretty sure nobody in Connecticut is targeted for discrimination or hate crimes because of Lyme disease but many Asian people are suffering from certain prominent individuals calling COVID the Chinese virus.

It's also a problem when a pejorative name is used primarily for political purposes, as in the current case. Do you really think they'd be calling it the Ohio virus if the first case had been in Cleveland? Of course not, because that wouldn't be politically wise.

Let's use the proper name, please. Coronavirus as the general term. COVID19 as the disease name. If you really want to get technical, the actual viral strain is SARS-CoV-2 but that's too hard to type or say.

where did Spanish fly originate?

[disneysteve]

where did Spanish fly originate?

Southern Europe.

[disneysteve]

As someone who sells life insurance I can tell you Life insurers are not worried about it ... (at least not yet) ..I was told that "it's treated as if you had the flu" ..

not my words..

I see no reason why life insurance folks would care about it other than the fact that 1 to 1.5 million Americans are likely to die from it. But as far as getting insurance if you've previously had it, yes, that wouldn't matter.

[TexasHusker]

Southern Europe.

[Snydley]

As an immunologist working in emerging infectious diseases and an Assistant Professor, my understanding is the final mortality rate is probably a bit under 1% which means ~10X worse than flu, which is not the end of the world but it is a bad, pathogenic virus. As far as immunity post-infection, debate is raging in the field, with other immunologists (including myself) feeling most likely once you are infected and clear the infection you will have some level of decent protection throughout the "season" if this will be a seasonal pathogen (which we also do not know). Protection (via antibodies most likely) upon re-exposure might not be sterilizing (no infection) but could help lessen symptoms considerably.

[TexasHusker]

Great info! So we see naturally weighing trying to choke out this virus by shutting the economy down, versus the long lasting destruction of our way of life economically. Once we “level the curve” why wouldn’t it just pop right back up when everyone goes back to normal? What is our end game ?