Debating about canceling euro trip in May

[cypher1]

I booked a trip to Budapest, Vienna, Prague for mid May, a couple of months ago, before the coronavirus awareness. While my trip is less than 3 months away, I'm debating if I should cancel, or just wait it out. I'm more bummed as I was able to time my trip window to leave the day after finals, and come back on Memorial day, just before Summer semester begins.

What would you do?

[disneysteve]

It's a tough call at this point. 3 months is a long time in the course of things. The cases could drop off or they could spread globally. Really no way to know. Do you have trip insurance?

[cypher1]

It's a tough call at this point. 3 months is a long time in the course of things. The cases could drop off or they could spread globally. Really no way to know. Do you have trip insurance?

I just checked under Chase Sapphire, but that only covers if accidential bodily injury/death, severe weather, terrorist act/hijacking, or jury duty. Otherwise I'm going to interpret any cancelations will require a voucher or non-refund depending on the airline in question. I'll still plan to go, but monitor if virus spreads to either country, then I can follow up with my airline for possible refund.

[disneysteve]

Is it too late to buy trip insurance? If not, look into that and make sure it's an "any cause" policy.

[Like2Plan]

I am in a similar quandary, although my trip is only about a month out. I have trip ins with the airline, but not the "any cause" policy. So, I am just going to have to wait and see.
All my hotel reservations (except for Disneyland Paris) can be cancelled without penalty. I have a couple of other things that I have prepaid. I don't know if they can get this under control, but if they can't I guess we'll know pretty soon.

[Jluke]

Who says it isn’t a terrorist act??

[disneysteve]

Who says it isn’t a terrorist act??

Unless something official comes out saying it is, good luck trying to make an insurance claim based on a conspiracy theory.

[kork13]

I'm very much of the opinion that canceling plans to places with very small numbers of cases, especially 1-3 months out, would be incredibly silly. As Steve said, who knows what'll happen with this bug even next week, let alone months from now.

I'd plan to travel, maybe get a small stock of masks & such for the flights just out of an abundance of caution, and of course always be careful to follow good hygiene practices. But canceling stuff out of fear? Please. Infections in most countries outside of China & nearby Asian countries are still very small (per capita) and fairly isolated events. Of course that can change, but it's ludicrous to cancel plans right now.

The biggest thing is to stay well informed, and specifically doing so through reliable authoritative sources, like... I dunno... the CDC & WHO. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ers/index.html
Understand how it spreads, what the risk factors are, how you can mitigate the risks, etc.

In the meantime, I highly recommend this excellent strategy game -- it's a family favorite.

[james.hendrickson]

So this is getting serious, especially for the US economy.

Here is Liz Ann Sonders (a really good Schwab analysts) take.

Heartbreaker: Spreading Impact of Coronavirus

By Liz Ann Sonders



Key Points

• Complacency is finally being put to the test with regard to the impact of the coronavirus on global/U.S. growth, earnings estimates and stocks.
• Complex global supply chains are being put to the test; with the virus representing a massive supply shock.
• U.S. and global central banks are expected to ease policy; but the impact is likely to be limited.

Complacency has been evident with regard to the stock market’s behavior and the impact of the coronavirus on global growth … that is until today perhaps. In mid-January, I wrote about highly-optimistic investor sentiment—seen in both behavioral and attitudinal measures of sentiment. The initial outbreak of the virus conspired to shake that optimism; but after a mild 3.3% pullback in late January, complacency built yet again on hopes of a containment of the virus. ~80k and counting

The latest coronavirus news is not good, with a surge in cases outside of Mainland China. For those who haven’t yet discovered it, this dashboard from Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) provides real-time updates of the number of cases, deaths and recoveries; as well as the geographic distribution thereof. [Caveat: As of today, we are finding that the site has been sporadically down.] As of early this morning, the total number of cases globally is approaching 80k, with more than 77k in Mainland China; but a rapid increase in recent days in South Korea, Italy and Japan (there are now 35 cases in the United States).

Other than during wars, the scope of the shutting down huge swaths of the world, associated with the virus, is unprecedented. There are about 60 million people in China alone that are quarantined. Labor-intensive manufacturing and service sectors are finding it difficult to re-open because of the difficulty of getting their migrant workers through quarantine and/or across provincial boundaries. Bloomberg estimates that the Chinese economy as a whole is operating at well less than half of normal capacity.

Original article here.

[cypher1]

I'm very much of the opinion that canceling plans to places with very small numbers of cases, especially 1-3 months out, would be incredibly silly. As Steve said, who knows what'll happen with this bug even next week, let alone months from now.

Don't get me wrong, I still have 10 weeks till my trip, so I'm in no hurry to cancel or take a loss. So I agree making a decision now seems way too early, especially since there hasn't been any cases since I last checked WHO site this morning. My buddy was supposed to go to S. Korea and Thailand in mid-March, which he just canceled last week (before Korea announced their situation) and took the voucher. So having him tell me his recent issue, has just got me thinking proactively.

[Singuy]

The Coronavirus is a gigantic nothing burger designed to gather interest for the 24hrs news cycle.

16000 people died so far from Influenza and 280k people hospitalized during this 2019-2020 flu season in the US. The death rate is sitting at HIGHER than the coronavirus and yet only 43% of Americans get a flu shot, you know..something that prevents death from a bug that's more dangerous than the coronavirus. Also the coronavirus have been infecting people for YEARS with a similar death rate. This is just a new strand( in which we get new strands of Influenza every year) and people are freaking out.

So do what you have to do, and buy the dip if you are in the market. Our specialist for infectious disease at our hospital briefed us about it and it's a super nothing burger blown way out of proportion. News media doesn't want to run the numbers against the FLU because the FLU will make the coronavirus seem like a common cold, not the black plague that's propped up to be.

[kork13]

The Coronavirus is a gigantic nothing burger designed to gather interest for the 24hrs news cycle.

16000 people died so far from Influenza and 280k people hospitalized during this 2019-2020 flu season in the US. The death rate is sitting at HIGHER than the coronavirus and yet only 43% of Americans get a flu shot, you know..something that prevents death from a bug that's more dangerous than the coronavirus. Also the coronavirus have been infecting people for YEARS with a similar death rate. This is just a new strand( in which we get new strands of Influenza every year) and people are freaking out.

So do what you have to do, and buy the dip if you are in the market. Our specialist for infectious disease at our hospital briefed us about it and it's a super nothing burger blown way out of proportion. News media doesn't want to run the numbers against the FLU because the FLU will make the coronavirus seem like a common cold, not the black plague that's propped up to be.

Aww, come on.... but the flu is BORING! Let's hype up something new and different!

Seriously though, the biggest reason it's become significant, specifically with the markets, is the impact of effectively shutting down or restricting large sectors of Chinese industry, and the growing travel restrictions. I think the original impetus for causing alarm was the fact that it leads to a higher rate of pneumonia cases than other coronavirus variants. Problem is that there's so much attention to it that the trolls, imbeciles, and news media (note the company with which the media is associated) have spun it out of control.

I will say though, when I saw the markets having a somewhat bad day, I had the same "BUY BUY BUY!!!" thoughts (not to be confused with N'Sync's hit song....and you're welcome for getting that earworm stuck in your head for the rest of the night. ).

[bjl584]

The Coronavirus is a gigantic nothing burger designed to gather interest for the 24hrs news cycle.

16000 people died so far from Influenza and 280k people hospitalized during this 2019-2020 flu season in the US. The death rate is sitting at HIGHER than the coronavirus and yet only 43% of Americans get a flu shot, you know..something that prevents death from a bug that's more dangerous than the coronavirus. Also the coronavirus have been infecting people for YEARS with a similar death rate. This is just a new strand( in which we get new strands of Influenza every year) and people are freaking out.

So do what you have to do, and buy the dip if you are in the market. Our specialist for infectious disease at our hospital briefed us about it and it's a super nothing burger blown way out of proportion. News media doesn't want to run the numbers against the FLU because the FLU will make the coronavirus seem like a common cold, not the black plague that's propped up to be.

I'm not worried about catching it or dying from it. Unfortunately, the panic that it is causing is having some very real consequences on the markets and on global supply chains. We are experiencing inventory shortages at my work due to it. While the virus itself probably isn't a big deal, the panic that is causing certainly is.

[james.hendrickson]

The Coronavirus is a gigantic nothing burger designed to gather interest for the 24hrs news cycle.

16000 people died so far from Influenza and 280k people hospitalized during this 2019-2020 flu season in the US. The death rate is sitting at HIGHER than the coronavirus and yet only 43% of Americans get a flu shot, you know..something that prevents death from a bug that's more dangerous than the coronavirus. Also the coronavirus have been infecting people for YEARS with a similar death rate. This is just a new strand( in which we get new strands of Influenza every year) and people are freaking out.

So do what you have to do, and buy the dip if you are in the market. Our specialist for infectious disease at our hospital briefed us about it and it's a super nothing burger blown way out of proportion. News media doesn't want to run the numbers against the FLU because the FLU will make the coronavirus seem like a common cold, not the black plague that's propped up to be.

Yeah, Singuy, half the Chinese economy is shut down. The US imports 13 BILLION worth of goods and services from China annually. Its going to have an impact.

[Singuy]

I'm not worried about catching it or dying from it. Unfortunately, the panic that it is causing is having some very real consequences on the markets and on global supply chains. We are experiencing inventory shortages at my work due to it. While the virus itself probably isn't a big deal, the panic that is causing certainly is.

Somehow I feel that the Chinese government made a such a huge deal out of this just to have some crazy wins on the back end.

1. Look at how much we care about containment
2. Look at how the world sucks when we have disruption of producing good, looks like you do need us.
3. Look at how we can build a freaken hospital in 10 day, you want a factory here?..we will build it in a month. You can't even get permits that fast anywhere else.