hows the economy in your area?

[DebbieL]

Anecdotes aren't evidence of anything. Government reports are accurate.

Well, I wouldn't trust any Government report without a huge grain of salt. They are fudged to the max to make whatever point they want to make (at least here in Canada as far as I can tell).

[feh]

Well, I wouldn't trust any Government report without a huge grain of salt. They are fudged to the max to make whatever point they want to make (at least here in Canada as far as I can tell).

Any government report has all the relevant data behind it freely available. Please provide an example of "fudging".

Without proof, I chalk up such statements to the "conspiracy theorists" crowd.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Any government report has all the relevant data behind it freely available. Please provide an example of "fudging".

Without proof, I chalk up such statements to the "conspiracy theorists" crowd.

Pretty much. Any gauging of the economy is bound to have errors, as it's a hard thing to measure, but they usually do try to gauge it the best that they can. There's a whole industry around it, "SHadowstats" and "Zero Hedge" come to mind, where any currency not based on gold is considered fraudulent and bound to fail. It's lazy thinking, frankly, while I do support the larger goal of a precious mental-based currency.

[disneysteve]

Any government report has all the relevant data behind it freely available. Please provide an example of "fudging".

Perhaps "fudging" isn't the right term but government reports do somewhat creatively massage the data. Look at the inflation numbers, for example. The government would have us believe there has been very little inflation in recent years but we all know that isn't true. Why the disconnect? The government measures don't include costs that we all encounter on a daily basis, like groceries for one. Anyone who goes to the supermarket regularly knows that food prices are up far more than 2%, but the "official" inflation rate doesn't count that.

[Weird Tolkienish Figure]

Perhaps "fudging" isn't the right term but government reports do somewhat creatively massage the data. Look at the inflation numbers, for example. The government would have us believe there has been very little inflation in recent years but we all know that isn't true. Why the disconnect? The government measures don't include costs that we all encounter on a daily basis, like groceries for one. Anyone who goes to the supermarket regularly knows that food prices are up far more than 2%, but the "official" inflation rate doesn't count that.

I don't think the numbers are that inaccurate, actually. Core CPI does strip out food and energy, that being said, higher energy prices will show up in higher CPI stats, as shipping stuff to market does use energy. Energy and housing have come down drastically in recent years. Food spending as a percentage of income, is at all time lows according to a graph I just saw. Also technology keeps getting cheaper and automation makes things cheaper as well.

[Joan.of.the.Arch]

a precious mental-based currency.

I'm not sure whether I would do better or worse in that economy.

[ua_guy]

It takes very critical thinking to digest statistics. Statistical indicators are just that, and the definitions and scope of those numbers are limited. A single statistic does not provide the whole picture.

If the US government falsifies or massages data, it needs to be evaluated criticalaly, analyzed with skepticism, put in perspective, all the same. I never advocate for blind acceptance of any data.

For example, unemployment numbers provide one view of the economy. Labor participation rate provides another view. In our current economy, those two statistics are at odds with each other, requiring further analysis. Just like a record number of people are now welfare recipients, that statistic also needs to be evaluated with statistical information on population growth. Is it a larger or smaller percentage of the overall population, versus simply an increase in the count of people who are receiving welfare?

I can see why people view the current economy from different perspectives depending on their employment, income, location, and political ideologies. Those are the "micro" versus "macro" perspectives everyone is taught in higher education.

About the economy, one issue I see is fewer and fewer people are able to analyze and aggregate data to develop a macro view. We are living in the age of the social media rant, the flying soundbite, the talking heads. It seems as though more and more people are flocking to very polarized and narrow viewpoints with regards to the economy.

[ua_guy]

Here's a local article, how timely.

http://www.komonews.com/news/business/Hiring-down-factory-output-slows-as-economy-weakens-330410681.html

So, there's crowing about projections being greater than actual results. Jobs are still being added. The economy is still growing. But people are upset. Understandably so--the picture outside the rosy windows of the US is beginning to darken with Europe and China. Oil plummeting is taking its toll on US workers and companies who can't produce oil as cheaply as imported oil (but those low prices at the pump are SO nice!).

The Fed is beginning to flinch on interest rates. Then again, holding off.

Is the economy going down the crapper? Well, I don't know. Reports still show growth. That has to be good on some level.

[feh]

Perhaps "fudging" isn't the right term but government reports do somewhat creatively massage the data. Look at the inflation numbers, for example. The government would have us believe there has been very little inflation in recent years but we all know that isn't true. Why the disconnect? The government measures don't include costs that we all encounter on a daily basis, like groceries for one. Anyone who goes to the supermarket regularly knows that food prices are up far more than 2%, but the "official" inflation rate doesn't count that.

"creatively massaging" is a misleading phrase. It gives the impression that someone is trying to pull the wool over your eyes.

That's not the case. The reports are perfectly clear on what they are measuring. If you prefer to use a number that includes food, you are free to do so.

We each have our own personal inflation rate. Mine is probably lower than the core CPI.

[disneysteve]

"creatively massaging" is a misleading phrase. It gives the impression that someone is trying to pull the wool over your eyes.

That's not the case. The reports are perfectly clear on what they are measuring.

True. The problem I often see is that the media reports the result without reporting the data behind the result and proceeds to make comments that just aren't supported by the data.

I see the same problem frequently when the news reports on medical studies. They give some rating-grabbing headline that scares patients and makes our phones start ringing off the hook when the full data really isn't all that alarming and often just confirms risks we were already well aware of.

I think the biggest issue with economic data is that what's happening locally and what's happening nationally can be drastically different. Also, the big picture data really doesn't make sense until you study the details. Using unemployment again, the national rate might be 8% (just making up numbers here) but then you dig down and find out that the rate for college grads is only 3% but the rate for those with a high school diploma or less is 12%. Just looking at an 8% average doesn't really give you the whole story but that's all that gets reported and that's what colors people's perception of what's going on. Very few people actually study the details (which is not the government's fault by any means).

[dojo]

I live in one of the biggest cities in my country (Romania). We are in the West, close to Hungary and Serbia. It allowed us to ALWAYS have a better lifestyle than other parts in the country, the unemployment is usually pretty small, there are many business / career opportunities etc.

Even if we were hit by the recession just like the entire country (or world, actually), we're doing pretty well now.

[dawnwes]

All kinds of large homes in the $500K-$1M+ ranges are going in all around us, so I assume they predict people will buy them.

Our area seems to be doing well right now.

[disneysteve]

All kinds of large homes in the $500K-$1M+ ranges are going in all around us, so I assume they predict people will buy them.

Of course, sometimes those predictions are wrong. They built two custom homes on a lot near me about 3 years ago. I'm not sure of the price but it was somewhere in the 700K neighborhood I believe. One house finally sold after over a year. The other one has never sold. It has been sitting vacant all this time.