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Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

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  • Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

    Here's a counterbalance to all the negativity on the U.S. economy. The article is ridiculously long, but I've included an excerpt below.

    Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

    Everyone knows the U.S. is well down the road to becoming a knowledge economy, one driven by ideas and innovation. What you may not realize is that the government's decades-old system of number collection and crunching captures investments in equipment, buildings, and software, but for the most part misses the growing portion of GDP that is generating the cool, game-changing ideas. "As we've become a more knowledge-based economy," says University of Maryland economist Charles R. Hulten, "our statistics have not shifted to capture the effects."

    The statistical wizards at the Bureau of Economic Analysis in Washington can whip up a spreadsheet showing how much the railroads spend on furniture ($39 million in 2004, to be exact). But they have no way of tracking the billions of dollars companies spend each year on innovation and product design, brand-building, employee training, or any of the other intangible investments required to compete in today's global economy. That means that the resources put into creating such world-beating innovations as the anticancer drug Avastin, inhaled insulin, Starbuck's, exchange-traded funds, and yes, even the iPod, don't show up in the official numbers.

  • #2
    Re: Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

    Interesting, thank you!

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    • #3
      Re: Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

      That is interesting, but where does that leave the portion of our population who are unable to compete on an intellectual level? Manufacturing jobs are being shipped overseas (or across the border) at an alarming rate. Too many of my friends who were in manufacturing have lost jobs and are now underemployed (if at all) in the retail sector. They're in the position of having to sell their homes or be foreclosed.

      Americans are not more intelligent than any other nation. So, while this may make the "economy" better, what does it do for the 50% (or more) of our nation who can't work in this sector?

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      • #4
        Re: Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

        50% seems high to me, but your point is well taken. Plant automation and outsourcing are quickly making manufacturing jobs obsolete. At least part of the answer is offering these folks job retraining and educational assistance.

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        • #5
          Re: Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

          But in what? We have to accept that for a lot of people, manufacturing is all they can do. There are a lot of people who cannot compete intellectually. Are they going to have to move out of the country to another country where manufacturing jobs still exist? Or be significantly underemployed in the service and retail sector?

          The fact of the matter is that many of my friends are honestly not suited for retraining. They cannot be trained to think in the ways they would need to think in many jobs. They aren't even capable of most "paper pushing" jobs.

          Maybe, if we get away from factory farms and back to the family farm, these people would find their niche. Or, if the gov't would offer health insurance to all, they can start their own service business (of course, many of them don't get health benefits anyway since it's next to impossible to get a full time job in the service or retail industry these days).

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          • #6
            Re: Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

            Maybe, if we get away from factory farms and back to the family farm, these people would find their niche.
            and then we'd get people complaining that food costs are rising too quickly. Economies of scale have kept the cost of food down quite substantially. I agree with you cercis that there's no easy answer - but it's a double-edged sword.

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            • #7
              Re: Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

              Jesse, when all the family farms are gone, I guarantee you the factory farms will exploit their monopoly. It's dead certain.

              We already see large companies suing small farmers for manufactured reasons. We see them lobbying congress to make laws that are unduly restrictive (in Oklahoma County, for instance, farmers' markets can't sell eggs, honey, jams, etc without special and expensive permits. They can't give samples of produce that have been cut. In Oklahoma state, farmers cannot sell home harvested chickens, they have to be processed at the one state processing center - with all the chickens which have been hormonally treated).

              The family farm is dying but it has nothing to do with economies of scale and everything to do with dirty pool and congress.

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              • #8
                Re: Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

                Originally posted by Sweepsplayer
                Here's a counterbalance to all the negativity on the U.S. economy.
                And the “Big Picture” dissects the article:


                BusinessWeek Cover Story: Disingenuous or Denial?

                I was initially perplexed by this magazine cover, and it took me a few moments to figure out why. Eventually, I concluded that it was one of two things; either this is a disingenuous cover, or the Editors at BW are in Denial.

                Its only a few ornery cusses (like myself) who have been pointing out that the reality beneath the headline data paints a very different portrait. A closer look at how various economic components are calculated reveals that the CPI dramatically understates inflation, or that job creation this cycle is so very poor, or why the Unemployment rate is misleading.


                MORE...

                #

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                • #9
                  Re: Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

                  This underscores the point that you usually only find what you're looking for. If you're an optimist or you're pro-Bush, you'll probably find all the rosey data and put a nice shiny bow on it for everyone else. Likewise, pessimists and/or Bush bashers will pick out every bad piece of data and put it a "we're doomed" label on it.

                  Personally I think Bush is doing a terrible job, but I try not to let that cloud my judgment on issues like the economy. The question is are these issues temporary problems for the economy (and we will bounce back, say, when a Democrat is in office) or are these permanent problems that are sending us into an irreversible tailspin? No one knows for sure, but given past experience, I say it's the former.

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                  • #10
                    Re: Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

                    Originally posted by Sweepsplayer
                    This underscores the point that you usually only find what you're looking for.
                    Actually, it underscores the difference between opinion and fact.



                    If you're an optimist or you're pro-Bush, you'll probably find all the rosey data and put a nice shiny bow on it for everyone else.
                    There is no “rosey data”, only a rosey interpretation of the data. Hence the phrase, “Rose-colored glasses”.



                    Likewise, pessimists and/or Bush bashers will pick out every bad piece of data and put it a "we're doomed" label on it.
                    But “bad” data isn’t distorted by being labeled as bad. Bad data is distorted by being interpreted as rosey.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

                      Fair enough, I agree. But data and facts are useless without context.

                      It's a fact that cash transactions in the United States decline year after year. Does this mean Americans are spending less each year? Of course not, they're using credit cards and other electronic transactions.

                      This is why in court you have to tell the whole truth and nothing but the truth. Anything else is meaningless.

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                      • #12
                        Re: Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

                        That’s a good example of the correct interpretation of the data, but I haven’t seen anyone claiming that it means that ‘Consumer Spending’ is declining because of it. All of the existing meters utilize credit and debit charges as well.

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                        • #13
                          Re: Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

                          I think regardless who is in office republician or democrat the economy is in really bad shape. No matter how you look at it, savings rate is down and national debt is skyrocketing.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

                            Gavin - do you think part of that could be the president, et al encouraging people to spend to "stimulate the economy"?

                            I listen to ads from the WWII era and those ads are all about saving money and helping the economy by being fiscally responsible.

                            I remember having people try to put me on a guilt trip when I said I was going to put my little tax rebate check into savings rather than buy something. "The president is giving you that $600 so that you will buy big ticket items and help businesses".

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                            • #15
                              Re: Why The Economy Is A Lot Stronger Than You Think

                              If the country's going down the tubes, that why not spend every dime we have left? Go out in a blaze of glory, if you will.

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