Double Dip Recession?

[rob62521]

Last week a few newscasters said they thought we were entering into double dip recession, but others pooh poohed it and said no way. There's seems to be more pointing to it. So, SA folks, what do you think? Are we in double dip recession?

[disneysteve]

Recessions can only be "predicted" after they have already occurred and they can only be declared "over" months after they actually ended. Are we in one? I don't know and don't particularly care. As several of us said in the other thread on this topic, it is just one of many bumps in the financial road that we will all encounter during our lives.

[maat55]

IMO, we never really recovered the first one. We are repeating the Great Depression and Japanese lost decades. Government temporary manipulations do not constitute a recovery.

The only reason this recession does not feel like a depression is due to welfare and unemployment programs. I credit FDR with one policy, FDIC has been a good deterrent to bank runs.

[Snodog]

I think we are going down again. Economy is struggling and none of our leaders have any idea what to do about it. We are repeating the same mistakes we made in 1937 all over again. Over 9% unemployment and everyone is instead concerned about inflation and the deficit. Tragic.

[LuckyRobin]

I never thought we left the recession in the first place. The media just tries to make it sound like we did, but I've seen no recovery in my area at all. It's just been recession straight through.

[KTP]

This is one of those double dips that you have to zoom out to see. It is happening in slow motion...no 600 point drop in one day thing.

I think we may see 11,500 or 11,000 as the low this year. I don't feel strongly enough to short the market, but I did set aside some cash to try and fish for the bottom. I also think we will be in the 13,000 range this year too. Then maybe next year we can get a triple dip with fudge.

I really don't see something like DOW 6000 again. I do not think we could recover from that, so no point to plan for it.

[rob62521]

The Dow did drop below 12,000 yesterday though. Ouch! I hope you are correct, KTP, and we do see 13,000.

[greenskeeper]

the only thing propping us up right now is the "stimulus" and QE1 QE2

At some point it all has to end, and the longer it is propped up the harder the fall will be.