Trump Bubble

[Bob B.]

Is anyone getting out of the stock market, or changing asset allocation, or otherwise making changes to their investment portfolio until after the inevitable "Trump Bubble Burst"?

I haven't yet, but I'm wondering if I should.

[bjl584]

No. Nothing has changed for me. I continue to DCA every month as I have for years.

[disneysteve]

No change here. I don't believe in market timing. Ignore the noise and just stay on track doing what you've always done. Markets go up and down for many different reasons. Don't try and guess what will happen next.

[Singuy]

The Trump bubble is preventing me from dumping a large sum of money into the stock market (taxable account). The market has already factored in the corp tax cuts to 15%and infrastructure spending he promised. Problem with that is congress can block everything due to a lack of money while trying to balance obamacare repeal without causing a nation wide riot.

Then you have all the FBI investigation on Trump, Trump's team and Russia so everything is up in the air. If Trump gets impeached due to lying under oath, the stock market will definitely correct itself down to 18-19k.

Things are happening really fast, so I'll wait a few more weeks and see..plus interest rate is raising soon..another damper on the market.

Everyone is feeling the heat from the bubble but can't find anything else to get a return..higher interest rate will change that real fast.

[Like2Plan]

There is no way to know if this is a temporary anomaly or the beginning of the largest market expansion in recent history.

If you look at an index value for the past 5 years/10years you will see that it is never linear. But, will you remember 5 years from now what the market was doing today?

DH and I try to front load to the maximum extent possible. Last fall, I was wondering if we hadn't outsmarted ourselves.. But, look what happened. (I could have never predicted it.)

[Singuy]

There is no way to know if this is a temporary anomaly or the beginning of the largest market expansion in recent history.

If you look at an index value for the past 5 years/10years you will see that it is never linear. But, will you remember 5 years from now what the market was doing today?

DH and I try to front load to the maximum extent possible. Last fall, I was wondering if we hadn't outsmarted ourselves.. But, look what happened. (I could have never predicted it.)

I don't understand front loading when it comes to the stock market since your return is not consistent nor is it guaranteed. DCA is probably less riskier in my opinion.

I front loaded my crowdfunding investments knowing I'll be getting a 8% return from day one until maturity.

[~bs]

No.

Nowadays every time an asset goes up, people love to call it a bubble. The stock market is exploding upwards for good reason. Whether I agree with what he's doing or not, that's a different story, and I don't want to get into politics.

I personally think the economic expansion will continue for years, then eventually the economy will recess worse than the 2008 crisis.

[Like2Plan]

I don't understand front loading when it comes to the stock market since your return is not consistent nor is it guaranteed. DCA is probably less riskier in my opinion.

I front loaded my crowdfunding investments knowing I'll be getting a 8% return from day one until maturity.

I don't know. I've seen some simulations on another financial board (lump sum, DCA, Front loading) and it didn't seem to make much difference. The saying is: Time in the market trumps market timing. But, this is just a side effect for us. We always try to max out to the match ASAP as we never know if the contract DH is working on will be extended.

[disneysteve]

The saying is: Time in the market trumps market timing.

Yep. We always try to fully fund our Roths as early in the year as possible. In the past couple of years, our cash flow hasn't allowed it but in some prior years we maxed them as early as the first week of January.

[corn18]

not changing anything. Just dumped $100k in 2 weeks ago from my bonus and it's up 1.5%, so glad I didn't time anything. And still putting in $5k / mo per the plan. 60/40 AA with 10% international. I used the new contributions to balance my AA back to 60/40 as the stocks were getting heavy.

I love the no brainer approach to being average.

[disneysteve]

I love the no brainer approach to being average.

The ironic thing is that getting "average" returns actually makes you well above average because the average investor is earning far less than the market average.

[97guns]

The Trump bubble is preventing me from dumping a large sum of money into the stock market.

me too, i was giving thought to dumping my silver and getting it into dividend/income stuff but i have cold feet now, i think ill stand pat

[Singuy]

not changing anything. Just dumped $100k in 2 weeks ago from my bonus and it's up 1.5%, so glad I didn't time anything. And still putting in $5k / mo per the plan. 60/40 AA with 10% international. I used the new contributions to balance my AA back to 60/40 as the stocks were getting heavy.

I love the no brainer approach to being average.

This sentence sounds like market timing.

When telling someone "shouldn't have waited trying to time the market, you could of gained 1.5% if you invested when you had the money 2 weeks ago" is actually market timing.

That 1.5% gain is only realized if you sell today...therefore you are playing the market timing game. If you don't sell..then you didn't really gain that 1.5% and investing money today makes no difference vs investing the money 2 weeks ago. But the problem with this mentality is..it does make a difference. Your 100k will always have a 1.5% higher return than the same money I put in today.

So don't time the market because you know..luck....can go both ways is the point of the story..

[scfr]

Is anyone getting out of the stock market, or changing asset allocation, or otherwise making changes to their investment portfolio until after the inevitable "Trump Bubble Burst"?

I haven't yet, but I'm wondering if I should.

Does "otherwise making changes" include re-balancing? Nothing wrong with that if the recent run up has left your asset allocation out of whack.

[disneysteve]

This sentence sounds like market timing.

Not at all. He put 100K into the market 2 weeks ago because that's when he received his bonus. He didn't sit around watching and analyzing and trying to guess when the "best" time to invest was. He invested when he had the money available to invest. That's not market timing at all.

Much smaller scale but I put $2,000 into our Roths last weekend. Why? Because I had the cash available to do so. As soon as we accumulate another couple thousand, I'll do it again, and again, and again until we have the full $13,000 in there for the year. I will do that with complete disregard to market conditions.