Altucher on Crypto

[james.hendrickson]

As you guys know, I'm a fan of James Altucher. Here is what the guy had to say about Crypto.

Its an interesting take on the future of Crypto - especially now that the sector is in a bear market.

Here is a link to the original thread on Twitter.

[disneysteve]

James, this is a great piece. I think it addresses the fundamental questions that I and, I'm sure, many others have had about crypto: What's the point? What purpose does it actually serve? Up until now, all I keep hearing is that it's an alternative form of currency. Great, but why do we need an alternative to the cash in my wallet? I've never understood that. My cash works just fine. This shows how the point isn't to use Bitcoin instead of dollar bills to buy a burrito. It's to transform finances in general. It's the blockchain technology that will be transformative, not the actual crypto-currency. In fact, it sounds like the currency itself will almost be beside the point. It's really about what the system will allow to occur. Something as simple as eliminating title insurance is a great example.

Of course, I don't believe that a multi-billion dollar industry is just going to disappear and have costs drop to zero. Somebody is going to figure out a way to monetize the new system and charge for it's use one way or another. Maybe realtors will add a fee for "title NFT verification" or whatever.

Still, this really talks about the whole issue in a much different way than I've seen before.

[corn18]

He makes a huge leap that crypto is trusted as much as the dollar. It is not.

[disneysteve]

He makes a huge leap that crypto is trusted as much as the dollar. It is not.

I also think he is way overly optimistic about how quickly it will get adopted. I can't imagine 4-8 months is a realistic prediction.

[corn18]

I also think he is way overly optimistic about how quickly it will get adopted. I can't imagine 4-8 months is a realistic prediction.

The only way to get crypto to the level of trust that the dollar enjoys is to regulate and insure it. FDIC insured means a lot to me. Dollar denominated ponzi schemes are against the law. The dollar loses to inflation.

The value of crypto can go to zero at any time. It has lost 70% of its value in one year.

Crypto is not insured. If your crypto wallet holder goes under, so does your crypto. You can hold your own wallet, but now it is much harder to spend.

We are watching the crypto ponzi schemes go under right now.

Smart folks sit on the sidelines and wait for all the dust to settle. If the future is crypto, fine. I'll jump on board once I trust it. I do not trust it right now.

[disneysteve]

Smart folks sit on the sidelines and wait for all the dust to settle. If the future is crypto, fine. I'll jump on board once I trust it. I do not trust it right now.

Exactly. I don’t doubt that crypto and blockchain are going to catch on and revolutionize many of our daily activities. We’re just not there yet. We’re still at the Wild West stage of trying everything and anything to see what applications of the technology will stick around and how it will be made safe and secure. Only then will the general public start to get on board. And that point is a lot more than 4-8 months away.

[scfr]

If crypto becomes more prevalent, won't the digital divide become a chasm?

[corn18]

If crypto becomes more prevalent, won't the digital divide become a chasm?

Do you know people that are cash only? Those are the only ones that will be left behind. Just because you don't have internet, doesn't mean you can't use digital currency. Credit cards are digital currency backed by the dollar.

[scfr]

Do you know people that are cash only?

Yes.

[corn18]

Yes.

Because they don't have internet access or some other reason?

[kork13]

If crypto becomes more prevalent, won't the digital divide become a chasm?

Do you know people that are cash only? Those are the only ones that will be left behind. Just because you don't have internet, doesn't mean you can't use digital currency. Credit cards are digital currency backed by the dollar.

FWIW, my understanding is that under-developed nations with minimal internet & financial access are actually a great proving ground for crypto.

A huge majority of their people are unbanked and actually conduct the majority of their financial transactions through mobile apps... They've done so for decades, typically with flip-phones. Plus, where such nations' currencies are sometimes unstable, the use of alternative currencies (whether dollar, euro, crypto, or otherwise) allow them to retain monetary stability.

What that demonstrates to me is that, if done properly, the use of digital currency actually has the potential to become huge across the lower quartile of our society in the same way. Pew research estimates 97% of Americans have some form of cell phone... so it does have potential to work here.

[scfr]

Because they don't have internet access or some other reason?

I know a few people who are cash only. But only 2 where I know the reason why - 1 literally can't handle credit due to intellectual disability (no internet or cell phone either), and 1 has learned & admits they can't be trusted with it due to mental illness.

It's already becoming a challenge with some restaurants not accepting cash.

[LivingAlmostLarge]

hahaha...yeah right title insurance will never go away. We will pay for that forever. Seen lobbying groups? We can't even get away from paying 5% realtor fees when redfin proved you can do it paying 1%. But we still use and pay the 2.5% to buyer and sellers agent. So you tell me how we will ever get away from paying for title insurance when you have to buy it when you refinance? That's ridiculous. You already own the house and have paid title insurance. But okay crypto will make that real. that's a bunch of lies. Insurance companies want to be paid. sort of why we can't have single payer. Insurance companies need to be profitable.

[disneysteve]

https://stocks.apple.com/AzceBgvjOTW-cNMnJjP1dcg

I don’t really follow crypto but just saw this. And it mentions a couple of other significant hacks that have occurred.

[QuarterMillionMan]

Altucher gained my respect. When the Dow Industrial was about 20,000 he went head to head on CNBC against Porter Stansberry saying the Dow would hit 30,000 when Porter said the economy would crash and the Dow would never reach 30,000.